Elversberg vs Augsburg: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Bundesliga17 October 202611°3,1 mm13 km/h

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ElversbergLow block & direct

4–3

AugsburgCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Elversberg (46%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.87 (+45 %)

1 · Elversberg 46%X 27%27% Augsburg · 2

46%

27%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Elversberg vs Augsburg (Bundesliga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Elversberg win 46%, draw 27%, Augsburg win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Elversberg 1.55, Augsburg 1.14. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Elversberg or draw 73%, Augsburg or draw 54%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Elversberg – Augsburg

Oscar Nilsson · 16 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: A tension exists in Elversberg's clash with Augsburg, driven by an intriguing set of numbers. Despite Augsburg's slight edge in points (8 over 7) and xPoints (6.9 over 5.8), the model tips the scales towards Elversberg, granting them a 46% chance of victory compared to Augsburg's 27%. This suggests an opportunity for the hosts to capitalize, particularly since they boast a slightly better expected goals against (xGA) record at 2.1 compared to the visitors' 2.3.

The expected goals tally tells a different story, with Augsburg averaging 1.7 xG per match against Elversberg's 1.1. This disparity highlights a potential for the visitors to create more chances, albeit against a direct and low-defense approach from Elversberg that could stifle those opportunities. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 reflect a balanced contest, where neither side seems poised to run away with it.

Weather could play an unspoken role here, with the forecast of 3.1 mm of rain potentially dampening attacking efforts and making the under 1.5 goals market worth a glance. However, the model's 50% probability for over 2.5 goals suggests caution. More compelling is the value in under 1.5 goals at odds of 5.87 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 5.75 with LeoVegas. The model's 25% probability for this outcome indicates a massive edge of up to 45%.

For all the statistical nuances, a 1-1 draw emerges as the likeliest result, aligning with the 12% chance assigned to it. Both teams to score at 54% corroborates this view. If you're hunting value, the under 1.5 goals market offers a sharp angle, with substantial potential returns where others see slim pickings.

Elversberg

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #18xP/match #12Points #8

Key players

Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.05
Lukas PetkovRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
Maximilian RohrCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03

Augsburg

Form WWDLD

League ranking xG #8xGA #16xT #8xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Robin FellhauerRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.17
Anton KadeFxG 0.70 · xT 0.61
Michael GregoritschFxG 0.51 · xT 0.01

Final score

4 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Elversberg 46% · Draw 27% · Augsburg 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SpVgg ElversbergBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,20fair 8,17-36 %

Hit

Matchresultat - FC AugsburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,53fair 14,99-63 %

Miss

Match prediction: Elversberg – Augsburg

Predicted score matrix

Augsburg →

Elversberg →

0–07.1%

0–17.4%

0–24.4%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.2%

1–112.3%

1–26.8%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.2%

2–19.3%

2–25.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.2%

3–14.8%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,14

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@2.76EV+37%

Over 2,550%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Elversberg to win46%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Elversberg to win46%
Over 2.5 goals50%
David Ngabi Mokwa Ntusu to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Michael Gregoritsch to score25%
Fabian Rieder to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.525% probability@5.87BetsafeEV+45%reference odds
Under 1.525% probability@5.87NordicbetEV+45%reference odds
Under 2.550% probability@2.76BetsafeEV+37%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Elversberg	X	2 · Augsburg
Betsafe	EV+ 11% 2.42	3.60	2.65
LeoVegas	EV+ 14% 2.50	EV+ 1% 3.75	2.65
Nordicbet	EV+ 11% 2.42	3.60	2.65
Pinnacle	EV+ 13% 2.47	EV+ 1% 3.76	2.76

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

Odds movement

1-3 %

41 %36 %

2.54 → 2.47

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.76 → 3.76

2+4 %

38 %33 %

2.65 → 2.76

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Elversberg

Augsburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Elversberg (8–8)

Augsburg (13–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Elversberg

Augsburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Elversberg

Augsburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Elversberg	Augsburg
Points	7	8
xPoints	5.8	6.9
xG per match	1.1	1.7
xGA per match	2.1	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.55	0.45
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.46

Playing style	Elversberg	Augsburg
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.26	0.24
xT per match	0.61	1.2
xTA per match	1.5	2.2
Won balls, offensive half	17	19
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	21	23
Pass completion %	0.74	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.7
Passes per match	318	275
Passes against per match	435	510
Switches of play per match	21.5	19.5
Long balls per match	25	25

Set pieces	Elversberg	Augsburg
xG from free kicks	0.13	0
Corners per match	3.6	4.8
Corners against per match	7.2	7.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.49

Other	Elversberg	Augsburg
Throw-in control	0.73	0.65

The goalkeepers	Nicolas Kristof (Elversberg)	Finn Dahmen (Augsburg)
Saves	15	30
Save %	65%	79%
xG prevented	45%	69%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Elversberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Augsburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Elversberg vs Augsburg according to our model?

The model gives Elversberg a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Elversberg 46%, draw 27%, Augsburg 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Elversberg vs Augsburg?

The model expects 1.55 goals (xG) for Elversberg and 1.14 for Augsburg, 2.69 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Elversberg or draw (1X) 73%, Augsburg or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.