01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Borussia Dortmund to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
BundesligaStadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin12°0,1 mm14 km/h
Läs på svenska
Union BerlinLow block & direct0–0
Borussia DortmundPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Borussia Dortmund (56%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.52 (+33 %)
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
1 · Union Berlin 18%X 26%56% Borussia Dortmund · 2
18%
26%
56%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Union Berlin win 18%, draw 26%, Borussia Dortmund win 56%. Expected goals (xG): Union Berlin 1.07, Borussia Dortmund 1.65. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Union Berlin or draw 44%, Borussia Dortmund or draw 82%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: A glance at the numbers tells us Borussia Dortmund have the upper hand against Union Berlin. With a 56% model probability of winning, Dortmund are clear favorites. This isn't just theoretical; their unbeaten run of seven league matches backs the data. Union has managed only one win in their last four encounters with Dortmund. But remember, such a small head-to-head sample might not tell the full story — so let's not overstate its weight.
Union Berlin’s style of play, characterized by low defense and directness, faces a daunting test. Dortmund’s possession and high press strategy thrives on exploiting teams like this. The expected goals (xG) figures show Dortmund ahead at 1.65 compared to Union’s 1.07, reinforcing the notion of Dortmund's edge. Their xGA of 0.89 per match further underscores their defensive robustness against Union’s more porous 2.1. The model tilts toward a 1-1 draw (12%) or a 0-1 victory for Dortmund (10%), painting a picture of a tight contest.
While the market sets the over/under at near even odds, the over 2.5 goals is only favored by a slim 51%. Add the fact that both teams to score sits at 53%, and the match could easily tilt towards a low-scoring affair. The expected points (xPoints) further illustrate the superiority of Dortmund, with a 9.3 to Union's 5.9.
Value hunters should note the odds on offer: under 1.5 goals at 5.58 with Betsafe and Nordicbet is rated at a 24% chance by the model, offering a hefty 35% edge. Additionally, under 2.5 goals at 2.61 with Betsafe presents a 28% value edge. For those looking for sharp angles, unders appear to be the market’s misstep here.
Union BerlinForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #13xP/match #11Points #16
Key players
- Emmanuel Delan Junior Latte LathLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
- Leopold QuerfeldCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
- Josip JuranovicRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
Borussia DortmundForm WWWWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #9xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Maximilian BeierLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.11
- Waldemar AntonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
- Nico SchlotterbeckCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.26
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Union Berlin 18% · Draw 26% · Borussia Dortmund 56%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Union BerlinBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,19fair 17,20-17 %
MissMatchresultat - Borussia DortmundBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,73fair 7,42-50 %
MissMatch prediction: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund
Predicted score matrix
Borussia Dortmund →
Union Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–110.5%
0–28.9%
0–34.9%
0–4+2.9%
1
1–06.7%
1–112.0%
1–29.6%
1–35.3%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–03.8%
2–16.3%
2–25.1%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.2%
3–21.8%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,07–1,65
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.61EV+28%
Over 2,551%
@1.51
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Borussia Dortmund to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Serhou Yadaly Guirassy to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Serhou Yadaly Guirassy to score32%
- Aljoscha Kemlein to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.524% probability@5.52BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@5.52NordicbetEV+33%reference odds
- Under 2.549% probability@2.61BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Union Berlin | X | 2 · Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 5.80 | EV+ 13% 4.40 | 1.49 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 1% 5.50 | EV+ 16% 4.50 | 1.55 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 5.80 | EV+ 13% 4.40 | 1.49 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 5.66 | EV+ 18% 4.57 | 1.56 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+9 %
21 %16 %
5.17 → 5.66
X+1 %
24 %19 %
4.52 → 4.57
2-2 %
63 %58 %
1.59 → 1.56
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesUnion Berlin 1Draw 0Borussia Dortmund 3
Goals: 2–13 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin (5–17)
Borussia Dortmund (11–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 13 |
| xPoints | 5.9 | 9.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 0.89 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.59 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 285 | 444 |
| Passes against per match | 390 | 367 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.9 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.21 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.74 |
| Other | Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Frederik Ronnow (Union Berlin) | Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 14 |
| Save % | 59% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 81% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln16 October 2026
- Schalke 04 – Mainz17 October 2026
- Bayern München – RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- Hamburger SV – Stuttgart17 October 2026
- Elversberg – Augsburg17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen – Paderborn17 October 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – Freiburg18 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hoffenheim18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund according to our model?
The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Union Berlin 18%, draw 26%, Borussia Dortmund 56%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 1.07 goals (xG) for Union Berlin and 1.65 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.72 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Union Berlin or draw (1X) 44%, Borussia Dortmund or draw (X2) 82% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.