01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Eintracht Frankfurt to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
BundesligaDeutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt13°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
Eintracht FrankfurtCounter-attacks & crosses1–0
FC KölnCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt (51%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 7.58 (+51 %)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln · Bundesliga
1 · Eintracht Frankfurt 51%X 23%26% FC Köln · 2
51%
23%
26%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln (Bundesliga, Friday, 16 October 2026): Eintracht Frankfurt win 51%, draw 23%, FC Köln win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76, FC Köln 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Eintracht Frankfurt or draw 74%, FC Köln or draw 49%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Eintracht Frankfurt hosts FC Köln in a clash that promises tension built on contrasting strengths. Despite the model favoring Frankfurt with a 51% win probability, it's Köln who arrives in better form, having underperformed their expected points tally. This hints at a resilient side capable of grinding out results, even when numbers suggest otherwise. Yet, Frankfurt’s ability to exploit counter-attacks and deliver precise crosses means they can turn defense into quick offense, a style that Köln mirrors.
Recent head-to-head encounters are sparse, with just two matches since 2022, yielding a win and a draw for Frankfurt. While this record slightly favors the hosts, it’s not robust enough to overshadow current form and expected goals, where Köln holds a clear edge. The visitors have managed to find the back of the net in 15 consecutive league games, suggesting Frankfurt's defense, which concedes a worrying 2.6 xGA per match, will be thoroughly tested.
Goal projections lean towards a close encounter, with 1-1 appearing as the most probable scoreline at 11%. Both teams’ preference for counter-attacking football suggests a dynamic but potentially cautious game, where defensive discipline might eclipse open play. Despite a 57% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, the under 2.5 at Betsafe, priced at 3.37, presents significant value given the model’s 43% rating.
Thus, we might witness a tactical battle rather than a goal spree. The smart money could very well lie in the under 2.5 goals market, capitalizing on the edge provided by Betsafe's odds. While the match might not overflow with goals, it embodies the strategic intricacies of Bundesliga football.
Eintracht FrankfurtForm DLWDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #6xP/match #17Points #14
Key players
- Can UzunLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.24
- Younes EbnoutalibFxG 0.55 · xT 0.14
- Jeremiaha MaluzeCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
FC KölnForm WLDLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #12xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Tom KraußCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.02
- Thijs DallingaFxG 1.20 · xT 0.01
- Mikey Steven Danny MooreLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 51% · Draw 23% · FC Köln 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Eintracht FrankfurtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,51fair 6,27-44 %
MissMatchresultat - 1. FC KölnBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,78fair 13,18-49 %
MissMatch prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln
Predicted score matrix
FC Köln →
Eintracht Frankfurt →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–15.9%
0–23.8%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.7%
1–111.2%
1–26.6%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.6%
2–25.8%
2–32.4%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.6%
3–15.6%
3–23.4%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–13.7%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,76–1,21
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@3.37EV+44%
Over 2,557%
@1.33
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Eintracht Frankfurt to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Younes Ebnoutalib to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Younes Ebnoutalib to score39%
- Tom Krauß to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.520% probability@7.58BetsafeEV+51%reference odds
- Under 1.520% probability@7.58NordicbetEV+51%reference odds
- Under 2.543% probability@3.37BetsafeEV+44%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt | X | 2 · FC Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.82 | 4.10 | 3.65 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | EV+ 0% 4.30 | 3.55 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | 4.10 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 4.28 | 3.82 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
53 %48 %
1.95 → 1.85
X+2 %
26 %21 %
4.20 → 4.28
2+11 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.82
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesEintracht Frankfurt 1Draw 1FC Köln 0
Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 5,5)
Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- FC Koln have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt (9–16)
FC Köln (8–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Köln
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Köln
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 7 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 8.5 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 361 | 364 |
| Passes against per match | 348 | 381 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.2 | 22.4 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 6.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| Other | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Noah Atubolu (Eintracht Frankfurt) | Marvin Schwäbe (FC Köln) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 21 |
| Save % | 63% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 – Mainz17 October 2026
- Bayern München – RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- Hamburger SV – Stuttgart17 October 2026
- Elversberg – Augsburg17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen – Paderborn17 October 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – Freiburg18 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hoffenheim18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln according to our model?
The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eintracht Frankfurt 51%, draw 23%, FC Köln 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln?
The model expects 1.76 goals (xG) for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.21 for FC Köln, 2.98 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw (1X) 74%, FC Köln or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.