BundesligaVolksparkstadion, Hamburg11°1,0 mm17 km/h

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    Hamburger SVHamburger SVLow block & direct
    1–0
    StuttgartStuttgartBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Stuttgart (49%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.85 (+12 %)

    Hamburger SV vs Stuttgart · Bundesliga

    1 · Hamburger SV 25%X 25%49% Stuttgart · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hamburger SV vs Stuttgart (Bundesliga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Hamburger SV win 25%, draw 25%, Stuttgart win 49%. Expected goals (xG): Hamburger SV 1.35, Stuttgart 1.86. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Hamburger SV or draw 51%, Stuttgart or draw 75%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Hamburger SV – Stuttgart

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Two matches, a win apiece. The historical head-to-head between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart since 2022 offers a narrow window into this clash, with the hosts edging out in xPoints but the visitors boasting superior xG per match. The head-to-head record, though intriguing, weighs less in this analysis given the sample size, especially when both teams' recent performances and expected goals tell a more nuanced story.

    Hamburg's defense appears porous, with an xGA of 2.2 per match, identical to Stuttgart's, yet contrasting sharply against the visitor's higher xG of 1.6. This suggests that the visitors have a stronger offensive thrust, capable of exploiting Hamburg's lax defensive line. Yet, the hosts' direct style can surprise, as highlighted by their xG of 0.21 within 8 seconds of winning the ball, surpassing Stuttgart's 0.14. Such dynamics could ignite quick transitions and sudden threats.

    With Stuttgart favored at 49% probability and the most likely outcomes pointing towards narrow margins—1-1 and 1-2 scorelines—the match promises delicate balances rather than a goal avalanche. Expected goals lean towards an over 2.5 outcome at 62%, but the defensive vulnerabilities coupled with the strategic styles imply tension and cautious play may curb excess scoring.

    Amidst these dynamics, value emerges under the guise of unexpected restraint. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 3.0 for under 2.5 goals, providing a 14% edge over the model's 38% prediction. Even more compelling, under 3.5 goals at 1.85 with Betsafe is rated at 60%, delivering an 11% edge. In a match shadowed by defensive fragility but nuanced by tactical interplay, these unders present sharp opportunities for discerning bettors.

    Hamburger SVHamburger SV
    Form LLLWW
    League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #17xP/match #15Points #12
    Key players
    • Yussuf PoulsenFxG 0.56 · xT 0.15
    • Warmed OmariCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
    • Albert Sambi LokongaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
    StuttgartStuttgart
    Form LWLLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #11xP/match #16Points #11
    Key players
    • Angelo StillerCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
    • Chris FuhrichLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
    • Jeff ChabotCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.02
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hamburger SV 25% · Draw 25% · Stuttgart 49%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Hamburger SVBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,91fair 10,64-26 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - VfB StuttgartBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,83fair 5,58-31 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Hamburger SV – Stuttgart

    Predicted score matrix

    Stuttgart →
    Hamburger SV →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.4%
    0–17.3%
    0–27.0%
    0–34.3%
    0–4+3.1%
    1
    1–05.2%
    1–110.5%
    1–29.4%
    1–35.8%
    1–4+4.1%
    2
    2–03.7%
    2–16.8%
    2–26.3%
    2–33.9%
    2–4+2.8%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-17%
    4. 4.0-27%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,35–1,86
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @2.94EV+12%
    Over 2,562%
    @1.42

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Stuttgart to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    42%

    Fair odds

    2.40

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Stuttgart to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Bilal El Khannouss to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Bilal El Khannouss to score28%
    • Grischa Prömel to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 3.560% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • Under 2.538% probability@2.94BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
    • Under 2.538% probability@2.94NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hamburger SVX2 · Stuttgart
    Betsafe3.90
    EV+ 0%
    3.95    		1.78
    LeoVegas3.75
    EV+ 7%
    4.20    		1.83
    Nordicbet3.90
    EV+ 0%
    3.95    		1.78
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    4.12
    EV+ 7%
    4.19    		1.81

    Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    26 %21 %

    4.31 → 4.12

    X+4 %
    26 %21 %

    4.04 → 4.19

    2+2 %
    55 %50 %

    1.78 → 1.81

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Hamburger SV 1Draw 0Stuttgart 1
    Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hamburger SV
    Stuttgart
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hamburger SV (5–15)
    Stuttgart (8–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hamburger SV
    Daniel Heuer Fernandes: 169 passningar, xT 0.37FernandesNicolai Remberg: 155 passningar, xT 0.1RembergAlbert Sambi Lokonga: 140 passningar, xT 0.3LokongaNicolas Capaldo: 114 passningar, xT 0.38CapaldoJordan Torunarigha: 114 passningar, xT 0.17TorunarighaSebastiaan Bornauw: 87 passningar, xT 0.55BornauwAlbert Grønbæk Erlykke: 78 passningar, xT 0.65ErlykkeZakaria El Ouahdi: 77 passningar, xT 0.07OuahdiDavid Møller Wolfe: 62 passningar, xT 0.26WolfeWarmed Omari: 58 passningar, xT 0.07OmariFabio Vieira: 48 passningar, xT 0.17Vieira
    Stuttgart
    Angelo Stiller: 259 passningar, xT 0.74StillerMaximilian Mittelstädt: 237 passningar, xT 1.32MittelstädtFinn Jeltsch: 196 passningar, xT 0.21JeltschJosha Vagnoman: 195 passningar, xT 0.75VagnomanJeff Chabot: 189 passningar, xT 0.11ChabotGrischa Prömel: 136 passningar, xT 0.08PrömelRamon Hendriks: 132 passningar, xT 0.21HendriksChris Fuhrich: 123 passningar, xT 0.4FuhrichFabian Bredlow: 120 passningar, xT 0.1BredlowBilal El Khannouss: 80 passningar, xT 0.6KhannoussDeniz Undav: 69 passningar, xT 0.25Undav
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hamburger SV
    Daniel Heuer Fernandes: 169 passningar, xT 0.37FernandesNicolai Remberg: 155 passningar, xT 0.1RembergAlbert Sambi Lokonga: 140 passningar, xT 0.3LokongaNicolas Capaldo: 114 passningar, xT 0.38CapaldoJordan Torunarigha: 114 passningar, xT 0.17TorunarighaSebastiaan Bornauw: 87 passningar, xT 0.55BornauwAlbert Grønbæk Erlykke: 78 passningar, xT 0.65ErlykkeZakaria El Ouahdi: 77 passningar, xT 0.07OuahdiDavid Møller Wolfe: 62 passningar, xT 0.26WolfeWarmed Omari: 58 passningar, xT 0.07OmariFabio Vieira: 48 passningar, xT 0.17Vieira
    Stuttgart
    Angelo Stiller: 259 passningar, xT 0.74StillerMaximilian Mittelstädt: 237 passningar, xT 1.32MittelstädtFinn Jeltsch: 196 passningar, xT 0.21JeltschJosha Vagnoman: 195 passningar, xT 0.75VagnomanJeff Chabot: 189 passningar, xT 0.11ChabotGrischa Prömel: 136 passningar, xT 0.08PrömelRamon Hendriks: 132 passningar, xT 0.21HendriksChris Fuhrich: 123 passningar, xT 0.4FuhrichFabian Bredlow: 120 passningar, xT 0.1BredlowBilal El Khannouss: 80 passningar, xT 0.6KhannoussDeniz Undav: 69 passningar, xT 0.25Undav

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHamburger SVStuttgart
    Points66
    xPoints5.14.8
    xG per match0.951.6
    xGA per match2.22.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.690.44
    Playing styleHamburger SVStuttgart
    Build-up efficiency0.30.31
    Field tilt0.310.5
    xT per match0.821.1
    xTA per match1.51.3
    Won balls, offensive half2223
    Pressing intensity0.230.26
    Pressing efficiency0.260.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.27
    Entries into the box per match815
    Entries into the box against1817
    Pass completion %0.730.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.71
    Passes per match281406
    Passes against per match459363
    Switches of play per match12.524.2
    Long balls per match2530
    Set piecesHamburger SVStuttgart
    xG from free kicks0.110.07
    Corners per match3.66.3
    Corners against per match5.46.3
    xG per corner0.040.06
    xGA per corner against0.020.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.280.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.410.61
    OtherHamburger SVStuttgart
    Throw-in control0.750.79
    The goalkeepersDaniel Heuer Fernandes (Hamburger SV)Fabian Bredlow (Stuttgart)
    Saves1615
    Save %55%65%
    xG prevented36%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hamburger SV
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Stuttgart
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hamburger SV vs Stuttgart according to our model?

    The model gives Stuttgart a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hamburger SV 25%, draw 25%, Stuttgart 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Hamburger SV vs Stuttgart?

    The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Hamburger SV and 1.86 for Stuttgart, 3.20 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Hamburger SV or draw (1X) 51%, Stuttgart or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.