Fiorentina vs Napoli: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie A20 September 2026Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze22°6 km/h

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FiorentinaLow block & direct

NapoliBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Napoli (48%)

1 · Fiorentina 26%X 25%48% Napoli · 2

26%

25%

48%

Analysis: Fiorentina – Napoli

Anna Karlsson · 12 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Four straight losses to Napoli since 2021 don't paint a pretty picture for Fiorentina. While the sample is small and less significant than current form, it reflects a broader pattern of struggle for the hosts. Add in their current three-game losing streak, and it becomes clear: Fiorentina are in a rut. In stark contrast, Napoli's visit comes with a wind at their back, making them the clear favorites according to both form and statistical models.

The numbers reinforce this narrative. Fiorentina's low defensive profile is vulnerable to Napoli's balanced and physical approach, which has helped the visitors accumulate more points and expected points this season. The expected goals model further underscores Napoli's superiority, predicting 1.67 goals for them compared to just 0.95 for the hosts. Despite the fact that both teams have similar xGA, Fiorentina's inability to convert possession into goals remains a glaring issue.

The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, tell a story of a match where goals might be at a premium. With the over 2.5 goals probability at 49%, the market's leaning is finely balanced, yet the edge tilts towards a lower-scoring affair. Napoli's expected prowess in exploiting Fiorentina's direct but defensively suspect style suggests a 0-1 or 0-2 result is plausible.

However, the sharpest angle lies in the model's read on the match. With Napoli's win probability at 48% against Fiorentina's 26% and a 25% draw chance, backing Napoli aligns not only with historical dominance but also current form and expected metrics. In a match fraught with tension for the hosts, the visitors seem poised to capitalize once again.

Fiorentina

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #16xT #6xP/match #15Points #20

Key players

Mateo PellegrinoFxG 0.11 · xT -0.02
Cher NdourRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
Franco MastantuonoRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.13

Napoli

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #17xT #5xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Rasmus HojlundFxG 0.29 · xT -0.06
Matteo PolitanoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.22
Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Fiorentina – Napoli

Predicted score matrix

Napoli →

Fiorentina →

0–07.6%

0–111.8%

0–210.1%

0–35.6%

0–4+3.4%

1–06.6%

1–111.9%

1–29.6%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.3%

2–03.3%

2–15.5%

2–24.6%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.0%

3–11.8%

3–21.5%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-112%
3.0-210%
4.1-210%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

0,95–1,67

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.93

Over 2,549%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Napoli to win48%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Napoli to win48%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Rasmus Winther Højlund to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Rasmus Winther Højlund to score31%
Amir Rrahmani to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Napoli48% probability@2.25BetssonEV+8%reference odds
2 · Napoli48% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
2 · Napoli48% probability@2.23PinnacleEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fiorentina	X	2 · Napoli
Betsafe	3.25	3.30	EV+ 7% 2.22
Betsson	3.30	3.30	EV+ 8% 2.25
Nordicbet	3.30	3.30	EV+ 8% 2.25
Pinnacle	3.34	3.45	EV+ 7% 2.23

Odds updated 15 Sept, 10:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

31 %26 %

3.26 → 3.34

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.41 → 3.45

2+1 %

46 %41 %

2.20 → 2.23

Over 2,5-2 %

52 %47 %

1.98 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Fiorentina 0Draw 0Napoli 4

Goals: 4–12 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

ACF Fiorentina have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fiorentina

Napoli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fiorentina (1–9)

Napoli (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fiorentina

Napoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fiorentina

Napoli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fiorentina	Napoli
Points	0	3
xPoints	3.2	4.2
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.8	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.49	0.25

Playing style	Fiorentina	Napoli
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.46
xT per match	1.2	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	20	18
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.18
Entries into the box per match	13	15
Entries into the box against	12	18
Pass completion %	0.75	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	315	369
Passes against per match	401	476
Switches of play per match	15.2	30
Long balls per match	27	30

Set pieces	Fiorentina	Napoli
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4.7	4
Corners against per match	4.1	7.2
xG per corner	0.04	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.68

Other	Fiorentina	Napoli
Throw-in control	0.64	0.76

The goalkeepers	David De Gea (Fiorentina)	Alex Meret (Napoli)
Saves	9	11
Save %	50%	69%
xG prevented	20%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fiorentina

Fixtures, form & tips

Napoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fiorentina vs Napoli according to our model?

The model gives Napoli a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fiorentina 26%, draw 25%, Napoli 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.