Parma vs Genoa: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie A20 September 2026Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma22°7 km/h

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ParmaCounter-attacks & crosses

GenoaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Parma (35%)Soft draw

1 · Parma 35%X 33%32% Genoa · 2

35%

33%

32%

Analysis: Parma – Genoa

Erik Lindberg · 12 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Genoa's recent form has been nothing short of dismal, losing five consecutive matches. It's a streak that might weigh heavily on their confidence as they face off against Parma. While the head-to-head record since 2021 leans lightly towards Genoa with two wins and two draws, this small sample is overshadowed by the current form and expected goals metrics.

Parma hold a slight edge in terms of model probabilities, with a 35% chance of winning compared to Genoa's 32%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 14% reflects a tight and potentially low-scoring encounter. Both teams have modest expected goals, with Parma at 1.19 and Genoa at 1.07, hinting at a cautious and controlled match. Both the hosts and the visitors play styles that could see them cancel each other out, with Parma's counter-attacking approach clashing against Genoa's physicality.

One should note that while Parma have the edge in terms of current points, Genoa's underlying numbers suggest they have been slightly unlucky. Their xPoints of 3.9 compared to Parma's 3.0 indicate that they might have deserved more from their performances. However, Genoa's xGA of 1.2 per match, better than Parma's 1.5, is a silver lining they can cling to despite their losing streak.

The under 2.5 goals market is compelling here with a 61% probability, aligning with the expected tightness and low-scoring nature of the game. The best angle, however, lies in considering Parma to win at odds that reflect their slight model lean. While not a guarantee, it's a well-underpinned bet that offers potential value given the current dynamics and Genoa's ongoing struggles.

Parma

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #19xP/match #18Points #16

Key players

Adrian BernabeRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Emanuele ValeriLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Abdoulaye NdiayeCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.01

Genoa

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #20xP/match #11Points #19

Key players

Morten FrendrupCDMxG 0.06 · xT -0.02
Johan VasquezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Brooke Norton-CuffyRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Parma – Genoa

Predicted score matrix

Genoa →

Parma →

0–010.9%

0–110.8%

0–26.0%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–012.1%

1–113.7%

1–27.1%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.4%

2–17.9%

2–24.2%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–02.9%

3–13.1%

3–21.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-011%
4.0-111%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,19–1,07

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.54

Over 2,539%

@2.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Parma or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Parma or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals61%
Mateo Pellegrino Casalánguida to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Mateo Pellegrino Casalánguida to score26%
Morten Wetche Frendrup to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Parma35% probability@3.22PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
1 · Parma35% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
1 · Parma35% probability@3.05BetssonEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Parma	X	2 · Genoa
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 3.05	3.00	2.52
Betsson	EV+ 6% 3.05	3.00	2.52
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 3.05	3.00	2.52
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 3.22	3.02	2.53

Odds updated 15 Sept, 05:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

33 %28 %

3.12 → 3.22

X+4 %

35 %30 %

2.90 → 3.02

2-2 %

40 %35 %

2.57 → 2.53

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Parma 0Draw 2Genoa 2

Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 0,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Genoa have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Parma

Genoa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Parma (1–4)

Genoa (1–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Parma

Genoa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Parma

Genoa

The teams in numbers

Performance	Parma	Genoa
Points	1	0
xPoints	3	3.9
xG per match	0.69	0.73
xGA per match	1.5	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.05
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.14

Playing style	Parma	Genoa
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.27
Field tilt	0.25	0.3
xT per match	0.58	0.46
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	25	18
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.2
Entries into the box per match	11	8
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.77
Passes per match	329	405
Passes against per match	433	490
Switches of play per match	30.5	20
Long balls per match	30	21

Set pieces	Parma	Genoa
xG from free kicks	0.12	0
Corners per match	3.6	4.1
Corners against per match	5	4.4
xG per corner	0.06	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.2	0.54

Other	Parma	Genoa
Throw-in control	0.69	0.7

The goalkeepers	Edoardo Corvi (Parma)	Justin Bijlow (Genoa)
Saves	12	8
Save %	75%	53%
xG prevented	87%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Parma

Fixtures, form & tips

Genoa

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Parma vs Genoa according to our model?

The model gives Parma a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Parma 35%, draw 33%, Genoa 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.