Frosinone vs Como: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie A20 September 2026Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone24°13 km/h

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FrosinoneLow block & direct

ComoPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Como (57%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.55 (+35 %)

1 · Frosinone 20%X 24%57% Como · 2

20%

24%

57%

Analysis: Frosinone – Como

Oscar Nilsson · 12 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Frosinone's home clash with Como hinges on a significant figure: 57%. That’s the probability the models are giving Como to win, reflecting their unbeaten streak of eight league matches. Despite having only a single point more than their hosts in the standings, the visitors have been more adept in controlling games, as evidenced by their higher expected goals (1.6 xG) compared to Frosinone's 1.0.

The teams have a small direct history, meaning head-to-head stats hold less weight here. Instead, recent form and match data suggest Como's possession-based style could unravel Frosinone's low defense, especially given the hosts' concerning 1.8 xGA per match. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% reflects some market caution, but 0-1 isn't far behind at 10%, hinting that Como might edge it by a slim margin.

The model leans toward Como given the overall probabilities. This scenario doesn't promise a glut of goals, with over 2.5 goals just a shade above coin-flip territory at 51%. Expect a controlled Como performance to shape the match, potentially seeing them edge a 1-0 or 2-1 victory on the road.

Frosinone

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #17xP/match #9Points #7

Key players

Antonio RaimondoFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
Giacomo CaloCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Giorgi KvernadzeLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.10

Como

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #7xP/match #14Points #4

Key players

Assane DiaoRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.06
Anastasios DouvikasFxG 0.59 · xT -0.06
Nico PazCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Frosinone – Como

Predicted score matrix

Como →

Frosinone →

0–07.0%

0–110.3%

0–28.6%

0–34.6%

0–4+2.6%

1–07.0%

1–112.2%

1–29.5%

1–35.1%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.1%

2–16.5%

2–25.2%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.5%

3–12.4%

3–21.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,10–1,60

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.67EV+31%

Over 2,551%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Como to win57%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Como to win57%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Anastasios Douvikas to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Anastasios Douvikas to score32%
Benjamin Lhassine Kone to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.524% probability@5.55BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
Under 1.524% probability@5.55BetssonEV+35%reference odds
Under 1.524% probability@5.55NordicbetEV+35%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Frosinone	X	2 · Como
Betsafe	EV+ 17% 5.90	4.20	1.55
Betsson	EV+ 18% 5.95	4.20	1.55
Nordicbet	EV+ 18% 5.95	4.20	1.55
Pinnacle	EV+ 29% 6.51	EV+ 4% 4.41	1.51

Odds updated 15 Sept, 08:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Como win since 12 September — the odds have shortened from 1.61 to 1.51 (−6%).

1+17 %

18 %13 %

5.58 → 6.51

X+14 %

26 %21 %

3.86 → 4.41

2-6 %

64 %59 %

1.61 → 1.51

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Como are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Frosinone

Como

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Frosinone (6–3)

Como (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Frosinone

Como

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Frosinone

Como

The teams in numbers

Performance	Frosinone	Como
Points	6	7
xPoints	4	3.5
xG per match	1	1.6
xGA per match	1.8	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.17

Playing style	Frosinone	Como
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.37	0.62
xT per match	0.71	1.1
xTA per match	1.8	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	18
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	18
Entries into the box against	18	12
Pass completion %	0.63	0.86
Pass completion % under pressure	0.57	0.79
Passes per match	184	548
Passes against per match	350	346
Switches of play per match	12.7	24.1
Long balls per match	22	27

Set pieces	Frosinone	Como
xG from free kicks	0.08	0
Corners per match	4.2	7
Corners against per match	7.2	2.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.69	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.5

Other	Frosinone	Como
Throw-in control	0.67	0.83

The goalkeepers	Lorenzo Palmisani (Frosinone)	Jean Butez (Como)
Saves	10	4
Save %	77%	57%
xG prevented	44%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Frosinone

Fixtures, form & tips

Como

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Frosinone vs Como according to our model?

The model gives Como a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Frosinone 20%, draw 24%, Como 57%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.