Juventus vs Atalanta: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie A20 September 2026Allianz Stadium, Torino21°3 km/h

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JuventusPossession & high press

AtalantaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Juventus (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Atalanta @ 5.03 (+17 %)

1 · Juventus 54%X 22%23% Atalanta · 2

54%

22%

23%

Analysis: Juventus – Atalanta

Sofia Andersson · 12 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Juventus' high pressing and possession-heavy style should tilt the balance in their favor against Atalanta. The home side's 1.74 expected goals compared to Atalanta's 1.12 reflect a significant edge, with the model leaning towards a Juventus win at a 54% probability. Although the head-to-head record since 2021 is a balanced 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss for Juventus, the small sample size makes it less reliable than current form and statistical expectations.

The Bianconeri have been strong at their fortress, winning 55% of their home matches in the given sample. Their defensive solidity, as evidenced by their 0.3 expected goals against per match, starkly contrasts with the visitors' 2.3 xGA, highlighting a vulnerability in Atalanta's back line against high-caliber opposition. This should give the hosts a clear path to goal and an opportunity to exploit this weakness.

Most likely scorelines such as 1-1 and 2-1 show that while Atalanta can mount a challenge, Juventus' offensive capabilities, driven by their tactical setup, make them more likely to clinch a narrow victory. With both teams to score at a 56% chance and an over 2.5 goals probability of 54%, the data suggests a competitive affair with goals on both sides.

However, despite the relatively high chance of over 2.5 goals, the model suggests a 1-1 finish as the most plausible outcome. The odds favor Juventus, and considering their home advantage and substantial xPoints edge (6.4 vs 1.7), the value lies in backing them to secure the win.

Juventus

Form LDWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #3xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Pierre KaluluRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
Douglas LuizFxG 0.26 · xT 0.06
Gleison BremerCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.15

Atalanta

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #20xGA #20xT #18xP/match #20Points #8

Key players

Nikola KrstovićFxG 0.34 · xT -0.01
Odilon KossounouCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Mario PasalicCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Juventus – Atalanta

Predicted score matrix

Atalanta →

Juventus →

0–06.1%

0–16.1%

0–23.6%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–09.6%

1–111.5%

1–26.2%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.7%

2–25.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.0%

3–15.6%

3–23.2%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.3%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-09%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,74–1,12

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.06

Over 2,554%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Juventus to win54%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Juventus to win54%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Jonathan Christian David to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Jonathan Christian David to score33%
Manuel Locatelli to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Atalanta23% probability@5.03PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
2 · Atalanta23% probability@4.90BetssonEV+14%reference odds
2 · Atalanta23% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Juventus	X	2 · Atalanta
Betsafe	1.70	3.85	EV+ 13% 4.85
Betsson	1.70	3.85	EV+ 14% 4.90
Nordicbet	1.70	3.85	EV+ 14% 4.90
Pinnacle	1.71	3.87	EV+ 17% 5.03

Odds updated 15 Sept, 05:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

60 %55 %

1.63 → 1.71

X-2 %

27 %22 %

3.95 → 3.87

2-3 %

21 %16 %

5.18 → 5.03

Over 2,5+5 %

57 %52 %

1.71 → 1.80

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Juventus 1Draw 2Atalanta 1

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Juventus win 55% of their home matches all-time (40 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Juventus

Atalanta

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Juventus (4–1)

Atalanta (4–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Juventus

Atalanta

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Juventus

Atalanta

The teams in numbers

Performance	Juventus	Atalanta
Points	7	6
xPoints	6.4	1.7
xG per match	1.7	0.62
xGA per match	0.3	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.61	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.21

Playing style	Juventus	Atalanta
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.71	0.33
xT per match	1.5	0.7
xTA per match	0.32	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	31	14
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.18
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.12
Entries into the box per match	15	9
Entries into the box against	6	23
Pass completion %	0.81	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.77
Passes per match	425	399
Passes against per match	310	537
Switches of play per match	28.9	25.2
Long balls per match	29	31

Set pieces	Juventus	Atalanta
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	9.5	2
Corners against per match	2	6.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.66	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.25

Other	Juventus	Atalanta
Throw-in control	0.68	0.73

The goalkeepers	Guglielmo Vicario (Juventus)	Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta)
Saves	5	19
Save %	83%	86%
xG prevented	89%	78%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Juventus

Fixtures, form & tips

Atalanta

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Juventus vs Atalanta according to our model?

The model gives Juventus a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Juventus 54%, draw 22%, Atalanta 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.