Mantova vs Pisa: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie B20 September 2026Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova22°9 km/h

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MantovaPossession control

2–2

PisaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Mantova (43%)

1 · Mantova 43%X 30%27% Pisa · 2

43%

30%

27%

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Analysis: Mantova – Pisa

Erik Lindberg · 19 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A look at the odds shows Mantova as narrow favorites against Pisa with a 43% win probability, which suggests a tight contest. The hosts’ style of possession control might dictate the tempo, but the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 indicates a balanced affair. Pisa, though less favored, brings a physical edge to the game, creating a compelling clash of strategies.

Despite Mantova's modest points advantage in the standings, Pisa has the edge in expected goals per match (1.7 vs. 0.99), hinting at their potential to trouble the hosts. However, the home side compensates with a slightly stronger defense, conceding fewer expected goals (0.96 vs. Pisa's 1.0). This dynamic underlines why the model leans towards a narrow win for Mantova, with a 56% chance for over 2.5 goals, suggesting that both teams could find the back of the net.

It's worth noting the small head-to-head sample since 2023, where Pisa has emerged victorious in both encounters. Yet, Mantova's current form and the expected style of play might tilt the balance. The hosts' ability to maintain possession could frustrate Pisa and limit their offensive opportunities.

From a betting perspective, the sharpest angle lies in backing the home win, where value appears at odds of 2.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 43% probability provides a 14% edge, making it a sound investment for those who prefer grinding out steady returns. While the game may not dazzle, this edge offers a practical approach to profit.

Mantova

Form LWWDW

League ranking xG #15xGA #4xT #16xP/match #6Points #1

Key players

Rares IlieFxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
Francesco RuoccoLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.00
Simone TrimboliCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17

Pisa

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #5xP/match #2Points #11

Key players

Samuele AngoriLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Mattéo TramoniLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.38
Francesco CoppolaCBxG 0.26 · xT 0.04

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Mantova 43% · Draw 30% · Pisa 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MantovaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,71fair 7,48+16 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PisaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,46fair 10,54-20 %

Miss

Match prediction: Mantova – Pisa

Predicted score matrix

Pisa →

Mantova →

0–05.7%

0–16.8%

0–24.8%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.2%

1–111.7%

1–27.6%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.8%

2–19.0%

2–26.1%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–03.6%

3–14.8%

3–23.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,59–1,34

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@1.87

Over 2,556%

@2.01EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Leonardo Mancuso to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Leonardo Mancuso to score26%
Simone Trimboli to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Mantova43% probability@2.75PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
Over 2.556% probability@2.01PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
1 · Mantova43% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mantova	X	2 · Pisa
Betsafe	EV+ 12% 2.62	3.15	2.55
Betsson	EV+ 12% 2.62	3.15	2.55
Nordicbet	EV+ 12% 2.62	3.15	2.55
Pinnacle	EV+ 18% 2.75	3.31	2.70

Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

37 %32 %

2.71 → 2.75

X-2 %

31 %26 %

3.37 → 3.31

2+5 %

39 %34 %

2.58 → 2.70

Over 2,5+2 %

51 %46 %

1.98 → 2.01

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Mantova 0Draw 0Pisa 2

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mantova

Pisa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mantova (8–3)

Pisa (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mantova

Pisa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mantova

Pisa

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mantova	Pisa
Points	10	6
xPoints	6.1	7.5
xG per match	0.99	1.7
xGA per match	0.96	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.31

Playing style	Mantova	Pisa
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.41	0.56
xT per match	0.65	1.1
xTA per match	0.82	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	26	30
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.23
Entries into the box per match	10	14
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	337	373
Passes against per match	408	415
Switches of play per match	25.5	21.1
Long balls per match	32	20

Set pieces	Mantova	Pisa
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.04
Corners per match	3.8	5
Corners against per match	5.8	5
xG per corner	0.01	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.5

Other	Mantova	Pisa
Throw-in control	0.67	0.66

The goalkeepers	Francesco Bardi (Mantova)	Alessandro Confente (Pisa)
Saves	9	10
Save %	75%	63%
xG prevented	51%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mantova

Fixtures, form & tips

Pisa

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mantova vs Pisa according to our model?

The model gives Mantova a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mantova 43%, draw 30%, Pisa 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.