Hellas Verona vs Vicenza: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie B20 September 2026Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona22°10 km/h

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Hellas VeronaPossession control

2–1

VicenzaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Hellas Verona (52%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.98 (+5 %)

1 · Hellas Verona 52%X 26%22% Vicenza · 2

52%

26%

22%

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Analysis: Hellas Verona – Vicenza

Oscar Nilsson · 19 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hellas Verona's possession-heavy approach meets Vicenza's counter-attacking style in what promises to be a fascinating Serie B clash. The model gives Verona a 52% chance of victory, but with their recent form yielding only four points compared to Vicenza's five, the hosts' edge in expected goals and expected points becomes crucial. Despite Vicenza's slight advantage in terms of actual points, Verona's underlying metrics suggest they are the stronger side.

The expected goals difference—1.49 for Verona against Vicenza's 1.06—illustrates Verona's potential to create more scoring opportunities. Furthermore, Verona's defensive solidity is underscored by their impressive 0.81 xGA per match, compared to Vicenza's more porous 1.3. This discrepancy highlights Verona's ability to control games and limit the opposition's chances.

However, recent patterns suggest the game could be tightly contested. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 to Verona (11%), indicating a cautious affair with limited goal-scoring. With a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams finding the net, the numbers lean towards a low-scoring encounter.

The betting angle here is clear: under 3.5 goals carries value across multiple bookmakers. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 1.37, with the model estimating a 75% chance of this outcome—indicating a 2% edge. Given the style match-up and defensive strengths, this seems a prudent play. Ending on that note, the safest bet could be steering clear of any goal-fest expectations.

Hellas Verona

Form LDWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #14

Key players

Samuele MulattieriFxG 0.54 · xT 0.02
Gabriele ZappaRBxG 0.36 · xT 0.22
Amin SarrLWxG 0.40 · xT 0.11

Vicenza

Form WLDD

League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #7xP/match #14Points #12

Key players

Silvio MerkajFxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
Gabriele MonciniFxG 0.47 · xT 0.06
Filippo AlessioLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.13

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Hellas Verona 52% · Draw 26% · Vicenza 22%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - L.R. Vicenza VirtusBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,93fair 17,84-33 %

Miss

Matchresultat - VeronaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,76fair 9,08-37 %

Miss

Match prediction: Hellas Verona – Vicenza

Predicted score matrix

Vicenza →

Hellas Verona →

0–08.2%

0–17.9%

0–24.4%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.3%

1–112.7%

1–26.5%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.2%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.3%

3–14.6%

3–22.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,49–1,06

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@1.98EV+2%

Over 2,547%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hellas Verona to win52%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hellas Verona to win52%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Grigoris Kastanos to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Grigoris Kastanos to score21%
Marco Carraro to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.553% probability@1.98PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.575% probability@1.37BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Under 3.575% probability@1.37BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hellas Verona	X	2 · Vicenza
Betsafe	1.85	3.40	3.90
Betsson	1.85	3.40	3.90
Nordicbet	1.85	3.40	3.90
Pinnacle	1.90	3.57	4.27

Odds updated 20 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

10 %

53 %48 %

1.90 → 1.90

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.67 → 3.57

2+10 %

26 %21 %

3.89 → 4.27

Over 2,5+3 %

55 %50 %

1.84 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hellas Verona

Vicenza

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hellas Verona (8–6)

Vicenza (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hellas Verona

Vicenza

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hellas Verona

Vicenza

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hellas Verona	Vicenza
Points	4	5
xPoints	7.7	5.2
xG per match	2.3	1.3
xGA per match	0.81	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.54	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.17

Playing style	Hellas Verona	Vicenza
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.74	0.51
xT per match	1.7	1.1
xTA per match	0.59	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	28	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.2
Entries into the box per match	16	11
Entries into the box against	8	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.74
Passes per match	428	309
Passes against per match	278	333
Switches of play per match	29.7	30.6
Long balls per match	30	40

Set pieces	Hellas Verona	Vicenza
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	6.6	7.2
Corners against per match	2.3	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.71

Other	Hellas Verona	Vicenza
Throw-in control	0.78	0.64

The goalkeepers	Nicola Leali (Hellas Verona)	Riccardo Gagno (Vicenza)
Saves	9	18
Save %	64%	69%
xG prevented	61%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hellas Verona

Fixtures, form & tips

Vicenza

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hellas Verona vs Vicenza according to our model?

The model gives Hellas Verona a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hellas Verona 52%, draw 26%, Vicenza 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.