Arezzo vs Südtirol: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie B20 September 202622°6 km/h

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ArezzoBalanced & physical

1–4

SüdtirolCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Südtirol (38%)

1 · Arezzo 33%X 29%38% Südtirol · 2

33%

29%

38%

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Analysis: Arezzo – Südtirol

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

In a small sample size of head-to-head encounters, Südtirol hold a slight edge on paper with model probabilities leaning 38% towards the visitors claiming victory against Arezzo's 33%. This narrow margin hints at a well-contested affair, yet Südtirol’s unbeaten streak of seven matches in the league speaks volumes about their consistency. It’s a run that undeniably serves as a psychological boost, positioning them as the team to watch.

Looking at underlying numbers, the expected goals (xG) tell a nuanced story. While Arezzo marginally outperform Südtirol in xG per match at 1.0 versus 0.72, the visitors compensate with more robust defensive metrics, conceding fewer expected goals against (xGA) at 1.2 compared to Arezzo’s 1.7. This translates into a balanced clash, though the tactical dynamics could play in Südtirol’s favor. Their strength in counter-attacks and crosses might exploit any lapses in Arezzo's physical style.

As for likely scorelines, a 1-1 draw is projected at 13%, but a narrow 0-1 in Südtirol's favor holds an 11% probability, just a hair above the 10% for a 1-0 home win. The over/under 2.5 goals market points to a cautious approach, with a 43% chance of seeing more than two goals. Both teams to score sits at 49%, suggesting a coin flip in offensive efficacy.

The standout betting angle lies in the value presented across multiple bookmakers, with odds for a Südtirol win at 3.3 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — a significant 26% edge as per the model’s 38% win probability. If you're looking for potential upside, backing Südtirol could be the judicious choice here.

Arezzo

Form WLLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #20xT #12xP/match #17Points #10

Key players

Pietro CianciFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
Alessandro ArenaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
Artur IoniţăLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.04

Südtirol

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #19xP/match #9Points #3

Key players

Aljosa VasicFxG 0.18 · xT -0.01
Alvin Obinna Obinna OkoroLWxG 0.46 · xT -0.01
Silvio MerkajFxG 0.11 · xT 0.06

Final score

1 – 4

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Arezzo 33% · Draw 29% · Südtirol 38%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SudtirolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,87fair 12,77+9 %

Hit

Matchresultat - ArezzoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,76fair 15,45-37 %

Miss

Match prediction: Arezzo – Südtirol

Predicted score matrix

Südtirol →

Arezzo →

0–09.6%

0–111.1%

0–27.2%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.1%

1–113.4%

1–28.2%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–05.9%

2–17.4%

2–24.6%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.2%

3–12.8%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,13–1,25

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@1.52

Over 2,543%

@2.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Südtirol or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Südtirol or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Silvio Merkaj to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Silvio Merkaj to score27%
Gennaro Iaccarino to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Südtirol38% probability@3.56PinnacleEV+36%reference odds
2 · Südtirol38% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
2 · Südtirol38% probability@3.20BetssonEV+22%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arezzo	X	2 · Südtirol
Betsafe	2.25	2.95	EV+ 22% 3.20
Betsson	2.25	2.95	EV+ 22% 3.20
Nordicbet	2.25	2.95	EV+ 22% 3.20
Pinnacle	2.35	3.03	EV+ 36% 3.56

Odds updated 20 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

1+4 %

44 %39 %

2.25 → 2.35

X-4 %

33 %28 %

3.16 → 3.03

2+4 %

30 %25 %

3.42 → 3.56

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Sudtirol are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arezzo

Südtirol

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arezzo (5–9)

Südtirol (5–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arezzo

Südtirol

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arezzo

Südtirol

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arezzo	Südtirol
Points	6	8
xPoints	4.5	5.4
xG per match	1	0.72
xGA per match	1.7	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.43	0.28

Playing style	Arezzo	Südtirol
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.38	0.34
xT per match	0.91	0.52
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	18	12
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.26
Entries into the box per match	10	5
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.74
Passes per match	298	357
Passes against per match	428	385
Switches of play per match	38.1	19.1
Long balls per match	46	25

Set pieces	Arezzo	Südtirol
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	3.7	2.5
Corners against per match	4.2	7.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.62

Other	Arezzo	Südtirol
Throw-in control	0.67	0.67

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Nunziante (Arezzo)	Alessandro Plizzari (Südtirol)
Saves	12	15
Save %	57%	88%
xG prevented	27%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arezzo

Fixtures, form & tips

Südtirol

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arezzo vs Südtirol according to our model?

The model gives Südtirol a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arezzo 33%, draw 29%, Südtirol 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.