Modena vs Empoli: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serie B20 September 2026Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena23°7 km/h

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ModenaPossession & high press

2–1

EmpoliPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Modena (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Empoli @ 5.98 (+45 %)

1 · Modena 48%X 27%24% Empoli · 2

48%

27%

24%

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Analysis: Modena – Empoli

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Modena holds a 48% chance of victory, the model's favored side, which clearly outshines Empoli's 24% win probability. The numbers suggest a tight contest, but one where Modena's sharper edge in both expected goals and points is notable. The host's higher xG and lower xGA per match underscore their stronger form compared to their visitors. While both teams favor possession, Modena's high press could disrupt Empoli's rhythm, skewing the match in the former's favor.

The head-to-head record is slim, just two matches since 2023, but it leans toward Modena with a win and a draw. While this sample size is too small to heavily weigh, it hints at a psychological edge. Modena's xG superiority (1.4 vs. 0.71) over Empoli further amplifies this advantage — the hosts are likely to create more potent chances.

Expected goals project a 1.56 to 1.08 edge for Modena. Popular scorelines of 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (11%) reflect a tightly contested match, though leaning slightly towards a home win. Despite a moderate 49% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, the suggestion here is for a low-scoring game, potentially landing at a 1-0 or 2-1 outcome. Both teams to score remains just above even at 53%, hinting at the possibility of Empoli finding the net.

Yet, the betting market's standout is the unmatched value for Empoli. With odds of 4.9 available on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a compelling 19% edge over the model's 24% probability for an away win. It's an alluring opportunity for those looking to bet against the grain, albeit with the understanding that the underlying numbers still cast Modena as favorites.

Modena

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #2xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Giuseppe AmbrosinoFxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
Simone SantoroCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Giuseppe CasoLWxG 0.49 · xT 0.48

Empoli

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #20xGA #5xT #20xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Edoardo SaporitiFxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
Stiven ShpendiFxG 0.22 · xT -0.03
Luca MagninoRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.10

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Modena 48% · Draw 27% · Empoli 24%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - EmpoliBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,12fair 16,90+13 %

Miss

Matchresultat - ModenaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,72fair 8,19-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Modena – Empoli

Predicted score matrix

Empoli →

Modena →

0–07.5%

0–17.3%

0–24.2%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.8%

1–112.4%

1–26.5%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.4%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.5%

3–14.9%

3–22.6%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.5%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,56–1,08

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.93

Over 2,549%

@1.94

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Modena to win48%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Modena to win48%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Ettore Gliozzi to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Ettore Gliozzi to score25%
Matteo Lovato to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Empoli24% probability@5.98PinnacleEV+45%reference odds
2 · Empoli24% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
2 · Empoli24% probability@5.10BetssonEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Modena	X	2 · Empoli
Betsafe	1.62	3.55	EV+ 24% 5.10
Betsson	1.62	3.55	EV+ 24% 5.10
Nordicbet	1.62	3.55	EV+ 24% 5.10
Pinnacle	1.63	EV+ 5% 3.84	EV+ 45% 5.98

Odds updated 20 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

60 %55 %

1.64 → 1.63

X+2 %

28 %23 %

3.78 → 3.84

2+12 %

19 %14 %

5.36 → 5.98

Over 2,5+2 %

52 %47 %

1.91 → 1.94

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Modena 1Draw 1Empoli 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Modena

Empoli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Modena (6–3)

Empoli (3–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Modena

Empoli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Modena

Empoli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Modena	Empoli
Points	7	6
xPoints	6.6	5.6
xG per match	1.4	0.71
xGA per match	0.74	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.08	0.22

Playing style	Modena	Empoli
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.28
Field tilt	0.61	0.33
xT per match	1.2	0.46
xTA per match	0.84	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	27	21
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.25
Entries into the box per match	15	8
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.71
Passes per match	409	348
Passes against per match	358	431
Switches of play per match	32.5	26.7
Long balls per match	36	32

Set pieces	Modena	Empoli
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	6.6	4.5
Corners against per match	5.8	3.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.65	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.38

Other	Modena	Empoli
Throw-in control	0.8	0.75

The goalkeepers	Leandro Chichizola (Modena)	Jacopo Seghetti (Empoli)
Saves	9	16
Save %	75%	84%
xG prevented	51%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Modena

Fixtures, form & tips

Empoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Modena vs Empoli according to our model?

The model gives Modena a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Modena 48%, draw 27%, Empoli 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.