01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Fagiano Okayama to win55%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
J1 League22°12,2 mm14 km/h
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Fagiano OkayamaPossession & high press2–0
Mito HollyhockBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Fagiano Okayama (55%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mito Hollyhock @ 6.42 (+22 %)
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock · J1 League
1 · Fagiano Okayama 55%X 26%19% Mito Hollyhock · 2
55%
26%
19%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock (J1 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Fagiano Okayama win 55%, draw 26%, Mito Hollyhock win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Fagiano Okayama 1.58, Mito Hollyhock 0.84. Most likely score: 1-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Fagiano Okayama or draw 81%, Mito Hollyhock or draw 45%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Thirteen points against nine, with both teams embroiled in losing streaks — Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock find themselves in a battle of regaining momentum more than anything else. The model strongly favors the home side, giving them a 55% probability of victory. This confidence stems from Okayama's superior underlying metrics, notably a tighter defense conceding 1.0 xGA per match compared to Mito’s porous 1.6.
Fagiano’s advantage extends to expected goals, where they average 1.1 xG per match over Mito’s 0.96, suggesting potential for more incisive play. Despite their high-pressing style, Okayama’s recent form has faltered, with three consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, Mito's balanced yet physical approach hasn’t paid off lately either, as they’ve lost four in a row. The most probable scorelines, 1-0 and 2-0, reflect the modest goal expectations in a match likely tempered by significant rainfall.
In terms of betting angles, the over 2.5 goals market sits at a 44% chance. The model's lean towards Fagiano Okayama, with 1-0 among the most likely scorelines, points to a defensive edge for the hosts in damp conditions.
Fagiano OkayamaForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #4xT #10xP/match #6Points #11
Key players
- Hiroshi OmoriCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
- Oberdan Alionço de LimaCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
- Soichiro MoriCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Mito HollyhockForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #19xGA #16xT #20xP/match #14Points #14
Key players
- Kenta ItakuraCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
- Sho OmoriLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
- Chihiro KatoFxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Fagiano Okayama 55% · Draw 26% · Mito Hollyhock 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Mito HollyhockBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 31,02fair 30,56+1 %
MissMatchresultat - Fagiano OkayamaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,98fair 8,94-22 %
MissMatch prediction: Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock
Predicted score matrix
Mito Hollyhock →
Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–17.1%
0–23.2%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–013.7%
1–112.2%
1–25.0%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–011.1%
2–19.3%
2–23.9%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–05.8%
3–14.9%
3–22.1%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–03.3%
4+–12.7%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-014%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,58–0,84
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.61
Over 2,544%
@2.18
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Fagiano Okayama to win55%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Leonardo Andriel dos Santos to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Leonardo Andriel dos Santos to score27%
- Yasuki Kimoto to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Mito Hollyhock19% probability@6.42PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
- 2 · Mito Hollyhock19% probability@5.75LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
- 2 · Mito Hollyhock19% probability@5.70BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fagiano Okayama | X | 2 · Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | EV+ 3% 1.88 | 3.35 | 3.85 |
| Betsafe | 1.55 | 3.60 | EV+ 8% 5.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.57 | 3.70 | EV+ 9% 5.75 |
| Nordicbet | 1.55 | 3.60 | EV+ 8% 5.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | EV+ 4% 3.97 | EV+ 22% 6.42 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Fagiano Okayama win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 1.75 to 1.58 (−10%).
1-10 %
62 %52 %
1.75 → 1.58
X+9 %
30 %20 %
3.65 → 3.97
2+36 %
23 %13 %
4.73 → 6.42
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Fagiano Okayama have lost 3 in a row.
- Mito Hollyhock have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fagiano Okayama
Mito Hollyhock
Fagiano Okayama (12–15)
Mito Hollyhock (12–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fagiano Okayama
Mito Hollyhock
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fagiano Okayama
Mito Hollyhock
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 9 |
| xPoints | 15 | 11.8 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.96 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.24 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.68 |
| xTA per match | 0.79 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 268 | 330 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 490 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.2 | 23.1 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| Other | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Lennart Franklin Moser (Fagiano Okayama) | Konosuke Nishikawa (Mito Hollyhock) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 34 |
| Save % | 59% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
- Urawa Reds – JEF United Chiba21 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia21 October 2026
- Avispa Fukuoka – Gamba Osaka21 October 2026
- FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol21 October 2026
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima21 October 2026
- Kawasaki Frontale – Vissel Kobe21 October 2026
- Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock according to our model?
The model gives Fagiano Okayama a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fagiano Okayama 55%, draw 26%, Mito Hollyhock 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?
The model expects 1.58 goals (xG) for Fagiano Okayama and 0.84 for Mito Hollyhock, 2.42 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Fagiano Okayama or draw (1X) 81%, Mito Hollyhock or draw (X2) 45% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.