01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance CD Guadalajara or draw (X2)64%
- Under 3.5 goals71%
Liga MXEstadio Hidalgo, Pachuca15°3,2 mm18 km/h
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PachucaCounter-attacks & crosses1–1
CD GuadalajaraPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · CD Guadalajara (36%)Best value by the model: 1 · Pachuca @ 3.27 (+12 %)
Pachuca – CD Guadalajara · Liga MX
1 · Pachuca 34%X 29%36% CD Guadalajara · 2
34%
29%
36%
Analysis: Pachuca – CD Guadalajara
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Four matches since 2023, and Pachuca hasn't managed even a draw against Guadalajara. This is a small sample, but it highlights a distinct tilt. Add to that the visitors' ten points to the hosts' four this season, and it's clear why the model slightly favors Guadalajara despite the narrow margins.
The expected goals, a near dead heat at 1.33 for Pachuca and 1.37 for the visitors, suggest a tight contest. However, the visitors have a tighter defense, allowing only 1.1 xGA per match compared to 1.6 for the hosts. This defensive edge aligns with their possession and high press style, likely to disrupt Pachuca's counter-attack game. The most probable scoreline sits at 1-1, yet the second and third most likely are narrow victories for either side.
While the over/under 2.5 goals is finely poised at 51%, the betting value lies with a Pachuca win. Although the model tips Guadalajara slightly, the odds on a home victory at 3.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 12% edge based on the model's 34% probability. For the cautious bettor, this value bet on the hosts is where the sharp money lands.
PachucaForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #3xP/match #15Points #14
Key players
- Salomon RondonFxG 0.57 · xT 0.02
- Oussama IdrissiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.31
- Elias MontielCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
CD GuadalajaraForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #1xP/match #7Points #4
Key players
- Ricardo MarinFxG 1.23 · xT 0.21
- Roberto AlvaradoRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
- Bryan GonzalezLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.20
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Pachuca 34% · Draw 29% · CD Guadalajara 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - PachucaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,78fair 10,72-9 %
MissMatchresultat - Chivas GuadalajaraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,04fair 10,22-31 %
MissMatch prediction: Pachuca – CD Guadalajara
Predicted score matrix
CD Guadalajara →
Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–18.8%
0–26.3%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.6%
1–112.6%
1–28.4%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.2%
2–25.6%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.7%
3–13.6%
3–22.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,33–1,37
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.03EV+0%
Over 2,551%
@1.83
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance CD Guadalajara or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Ángel Baltazar Sepúlveda Sánchez to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Ángel Baltazar Sepúlveda Sánchez to score24%
- Daniel Aguirre Domínguez to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Pachuca34% probability@3.27PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Pachuca34% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Pachuca34% probability@3.05BetssonEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pachuca | X | 2 · CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| Paddy Power | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 12% 3.27 | EV+ 2% 3.49 | 2.22 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
32 %27 %
3.09 → 3.27
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.41 → 3.49
2-3 %
46 %41 %
2.29 → 2.22
Over 2,50 %
55 %50 %
1.82 → 1.83
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPachuca 0Draw 0CD Guadalajara 4
Goals: 1–7 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pachuca
CD Guadalajara
Pachuca (7–7)
CD Guadalajara (8–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pachuca
CD Guadalajara
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pachuca
CD Guadalajara
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Pachuca | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 10 |
| xPoints | 5.9 | 7.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Pachuca | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 314 | 541 |
| Passes against per match | 392 | 330 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.5 | 31.1 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Pachuca | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 9.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.63 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.29 |
| Other | Pachuca | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Carlos Moreno (Pachuca) | Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 13 |
| Save % | 70% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Club América – Puebla30 August 2026 03:00 CEST
- Santos Laguna – Tigres UANL30 August 2026 05:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – FC Juárez31 August 2026 02:00 CEST
- Monterrey – Atlético San Luis31 August 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pachuca vs CD Guadalajara according to our model?
The model gives CD Guadalajara a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pachuca 34%, draw 29%, CD Guadalajara 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.