Necaxa vs FC Juárez: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Liga MX24 October 2026 03:00 CESTEstadio Victoria, Aguascalientes16°0,3 mm10 km/h

Läs på svenska

NecaxaPossession control

1–1

FC JuárezPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Necaxa (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.95 (+4 %)

1 · Necaxa 53%X 26%20% FC Juárez · 2

53%

26%

20%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Necaxa vs FC Juárez (Liga MX, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Necaxa win 53%, draw 26%, FC Juárez win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Necaxa 1.92, FC Juárez 0.98. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Necaxa or draw 80%, FC Juárez or draw 47%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Necaxa – FC Juárez

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Necaxa's probability of 53% for victory sets the stage for this clash against Juárez, underscoring a clear advantage for the hosts. Their superior xPoints and xG per match further cement this edge, suggesting a side that's more efficient both in creation and execution. The visitors, on the other hand, limp into this fixture with only 4 points and a lowly xG tally of 0.86 per match, reflecting their struggles in front of goal.

Although the head-to-head record between these sides shows a small sample of four matches, Necaxa's unbeaten streak hints at a psychological edge. The model points towards scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0 as the most probable outcomes, all indicating a tight game but with a distinct lean towards the hosts seizing victory. The expected goals tallies of 1.92 for the home side and 0.98 for the visitors push the narrative towards a narrow win for Necaxa, with 2-0 being a plausible outcome.

For those keeping an eye on betting value, the draw offers a slight edge with a 2% value at odds of 3.85 via LeoVegas, even if the model favors Necaxa. While this adds a layer of intrigue, the hosts are poised to capitalize on their stronger form and stats.

Necaxa

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #9xP/match #10Points #17

Key players

Daniel Ulises LeyvaCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.21
Julián Simón CarranzaFxG 0.67 · xT 0.05
Matías Román EspíndolaRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.11

FC Juárez

Form WLDLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #17xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Haret OrtegaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
Daniel Aldair Piña TorresCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Necaxa 53% · Draw 26% · FC Juárez 20%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - NecaxaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,10fair 5,79-12 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FC JuárezBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,87fair 21,96-37 %

Miss

Match prediction: Necaxa – FC Juárez

Predicted score matrix

FC Juárez →

Necaxa →

0–05.8%

0–15.1%

0–22.7%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.3%

1–110.7%

1–25.1%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.1%

2–19.9%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.5%

3–16.4%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.8%

4+–14.7%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.3-06%

Expected goals

1,92–0,98

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.12

Over 2,555%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Necaxa to win53%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Necaxa to win53%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Julián Simón Carranza to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Julián Simón Carranza to score27%
Rodrigo Dourado Cunha to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw26% probability@3.95PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@3.85LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Necaxa	X	2 · FC Juárez
Betsafe	1.70	EV+ 2% 3.85	4.40
LeoVegas	1.70	EV+ 2% 3.85	4.40
Nordicbet	1.70	EV+ 2% 3.85	4.40
Pinnacle	1.75	EV+ 4% 3.95	4.62

Odds updated 24 Oct, 04:19

Odds movement

1+2 %

58 %53 %

1.72 → 1.75

X-1 %

26 %21 %

3.99 → 3.95

2+5 %

24 %19 %

4.38 → 4.62

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Necaxa 2Draw 2FC Juárez 0

Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Necaxa

FC Juárez

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Necaxa (15–26)

FC Juárez (8–32)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Necaxa

FC Juárez

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Necaxa

FC Juárez

The teams in numbers

Performance	Necaxa	FC Juárez
Points	9	4
xPoints	17.7	12
xG per match	1.6	0.86
xGA per match	1.6	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.37

Playing style	Necaxa	FC Juárez
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.27
Field tilt	0.4	0.38
xT per match	1.1	0.74
xTA per match	1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	9
Entries into the box against	15	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.71
Passes per match	326	318
Passes against per match	367	402
Switches of play per match	28.7	29.2
Long balls per match	36	37

Set pieces	Necaxa	FC Juárez
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	5.5	4.4
Corners against per match	5.2	7.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0.57

Other	Necaxa	FC Juárez
Throw-in control	0.65	0.67

The goalkeepers	Luis Ronaldo Jiménez González (Necaxa)	Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez)
Saves	38	55
Save %	67%	65%
xG prevented	40%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Necaxa

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Juárez

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Necaxa vs FC Juárez according to our model?

The model gives Necaxa a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Necaxa 53%, draw 26%, FC Juárez 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs FC Juárez?

The model expects 1.92 goals (xG) for Necaxa and 0.98 for FC Juárez, 2.90 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Necaxa or draw (1X) 80%, FC Juárez or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.