Pachuca vs Cruz Azul Prediction: Away win 47% (22 Oct 2026)

Liga MX22 October 2026 05:00 CESTEstadio Hidalgo, Pachuca13°4,1 mm14 km/h

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PachucaPossession control

Cruz AzulPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Cruz Azul (47%)

1 · Pachuca 25%X 28%47% Cruz Azul · 2

25%

28%

47%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Pachuca win 25%, draw 28%, Cruz Azul win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Pachuca 1.27, Cruz Azul 1.67. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Pachuca or draw 53%, Cruz Azul or draw 75%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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Analysis: Pachuca – Cruz Azul

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Cruz Azul's 47% win probability sets the stage, emphasizing their statistical edge. The visitors' tenacious high press contrasts with Pachuca's possession-centric style, creating a tactical clash. A small sample of head-to-head encounters since 2023 reveals Cruz Azul's dominance, winning three of four meetings. This pattern aligns with their superior expected goals and points metrics, reinforcing the model's preference for the visitors.

The expected goals tally of 1.67 for Cruz Azul against Pachuca’s 1.27 signals a likely advantage in the attacking department, despite the rain-soaked forecast potentially dampening goal-scoring opportunities. Yet, with a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood of both teams scoring, the numbers still lean towards a relatively open contest. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 subtly underscore a narrow win for Cruz Azul.

The sharpest angle here is the value on Cruz Azul winning, with a 6% edge at odds of 2.25 with LeoVegas, marking the visitors as a worthwhile punt. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer slightly lower value at odds of 2.22, yet remain solid options for an outcome the model finds favorable.

Pachuca

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #4xP/match #17Points #14

Key players

Salomon RondonFxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
Oussama IdrissiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.26
Eduardo BauermannCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.04

Cruz Azul

Form WLDDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #1xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.31
Jesus Orozco ChiqueteCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
Erik LiraCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Pachuca – Cruz Azul

Predicted score matrix

Cruz Azul →

Pachuca →

0–05.6%

0–18.5%

0–27.4%

0–34.1%

0–4+2.5%

1–06.4%

1–111.6%

1–29.4%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.3%

2–17.1%

2–25.9%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.8%

3–13.0%

3–22.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,27–1,67

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.35EV+2%

Over 2,556%

@1.63

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cruz Azul to win47%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cruz Azul to win47%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Luka Romero Bezzana to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
José Salomón Rondón Giménez to score24%
Christian Hernando Rivera Cuéllar to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cruz Azul47% probability@2.50BetMGM UKEV+18%reference odds
Under 3.566% probability@1.57LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
2 · Cruz Azul47% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pachuca	X	2 · Cruz Azul
BetMGM UK	2.50	3.40	EV+ 18% 2.50
Betsafe	3.15	3.45	EV+ 0% 2.12
LeoVegas	3.00	3.60	EV+ 0% 2.12
Nordicbet	3.15	3.45	EV+ 0% 2.12
Pinnacle	3.25	EV+ 1% 3.65	EV+ 4% 2.19

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:10

Odds movement

1+9 %

33 %28 %

2.97 → 3.25

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.66 → 3.65

2-3 %

45 %40 %

2.25 → 2.19

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Pachuca 1Draw 0Cruz Azul 3

Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pachuca

Cruz Azul

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pachuca (19–16)

Cruz Azul (27–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pachuca

Cruz Azul

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pachuca

Cruz Azul

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pachuca	Cruz Azul
Points	13	20
xPoints	13.1	17.6
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	1.7	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.36

Playing style	Pachuca	Cruz Azul
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.51	0.63
xT per match	1.3	1.6
xTA per match	1	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	27	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.24
Entries into the box per match	13	17
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.75	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	325	407
Passes against per match	370	296
Switches of play per match	33.4	36.7
Long balls per match	46	40

Set pieces	Pachuca	Cruz Azul
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.02
Corners per match	5.3	5.8
Corners against per match	4.2	5.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.38

Other	Pachuca	Cruz Azul
Throw-in control	0.68	0.75

The goalkeepers	Carlos Moreno (Pachuca)	Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul)
Saves	39	29
Save %	71%	66%
xG prevented	33%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pachuca

Fixtures, form & tips

Cruz Azul

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pachuca vs Cruz Azul according to our model?

The model gives Cruz Azul a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pachuca 25%, draw 28%, Cruz Azul 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

The model expects 1.27 goals (xG) for Pachuca and 1.67 for Cruz Azul, 2.94 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Pachuca or draw (1X) 53%, Cruz Azul or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.