01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Pumas UNAM or draw (X2)66%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Liga MXEstadio Corona, Torreón22°15 km/h
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Santos LagunaCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Pumas UNAMPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Pumas UNAM (39%)Soft draw
Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM · Liga MX
1 · Santos Laguna 36%X 25%39% Pumas UNAM · 2
36%
25%
39%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM (Liga MX, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Santos Laguna win 36%, draw 25%, Pumas UNAM win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Santos Laguna 1.42, Pumas UNAM 1.58. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Santos Laguna or draw 61%, Pumas UNAM or draw 64%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.
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Analysis: Santos Laguna – Pumas UNAM
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record since 2023 shows a slight edge in favor of Pumas UNAM over Santos Laguna, with the visitors winning two of the last four encounters. While the sample size is small, it hints at a competitive fixture. However, Santos Laguna enters this match in formidable form, riding a wave of five consecutive victories. This winning streak contrasts with the odds and the model's lean, which favors Pumas UNAM slightly for this clash.
Santos Laguna's recent form is built on a counter-attacking style that capitalizes on crosses, while Pumas UNAM employs a possession-based approach. The expected goals reveal a narrow advantage for the visitors, 1.58 to 1.42, suggesting a tight battle. Despite this, Santos's attacking edge is more pronounced in their xG per match at 1.6 compared to Pumas's 1.1. Defensively, both teams are evenly matched, each conceding an average of 1.5 xGA per match. This equilibrium in defensive stats might tilt the balance towards the more clinical side upfront.
The model lists 1-1 as the most likely scoreline, followed by a 1-2 win for Pumas or a 2-1 for Santos, reflecting the close nature of this matchup. With both teams expected to score at a 60% probability and the over 2.5 goals scenario at 58%, goals might be on the cards, but not overwhelmingly so. The tactical clash between Santos’s swift transitions and Pumas's possession game could create a tense, yet open contest.
The sharpest angle lies in the betting market's mispricing of a Pumas victory. The away win is an EV+ opportunity, with odds of 2.95 at LeoVegas offering a significant 14% edge over the model's probability of 39%. Similarly, Betsafe and Nordicbet provide odds of 2.9, presenting a 12% expected value. This mismatch between the odds and probability suggests value in backing the visitors, despite Santos's impressive run.
Santos LagunaForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #3xP/match #10Points #12
Key players
- Fran VillalbaCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.29
- Ezequiel Eduardo BullaudeCAMxG 0.30 · xT 0.08
- Felipe SánchezCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Pumas UNAMForm LDLDW
League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #12xP/match #16Points #9
Key players
- Robert MoralesFxG 0.20 · xT 0.07
- Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Rodrigo LopezRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Santos Laguna – Pumas UNAM
Predicted score matrix
Pumas UNAM →
Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–17.5%
0–26.2%
0–33.3%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–06.8%
1–111.5%
1–28.8%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–05.0%
2–17.9%
2–26.3%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.8%
3–23.0%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,42–1,58
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,542%
@2.30
Over 2,558%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Pumas UNAM or draw (X2)66%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Robert Osmar Morales Benítez to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Robert Osmar Morales Benítez to score23%
- Facundo Agustín Cáseres to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Pumas UNAM39% probability@2.75PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- 2 · Pumas UNAM39% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- 2 · Pumas UNAM39% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Santos Laguna | X | 2 · Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 2.43 | 3.45 | EV+ 0% 2.60 |
| Betsafe | 2.42 | 3.45 | EV+ 1% 2.62 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | 3.55 | EV+ 0% 2.60 |
| Nordicbet | 2.42 | 3.45 | EV+ 1% 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.70 | EV+ 6% 2.75 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:10
Odds movement
1+9 %
47 %37 %
2.27 → 2.48
X+1 %
32 %22 %
3.66 → 3.70
2-7 %
37 %27 %
2.95 → 2.75
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSantos Laguna 1Draw 1Pumas UNAM 2
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Santos Laguna come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Santos Laguna
Pumas UNAM
Santos Laguna (17–16)
Pumas UNAM (19–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Santos Laguna
Pumas UNAM
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Santos Laguna
Pumas UNAM
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Santos Laguna | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 16 |
| xPoints | 15.8 | 14.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Santos Laguna | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 392 | 335 |
| Passes against per match | 389 | 397 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.4 | 30.4 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Santos Laguna | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| Other | Santos Laguna | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Carlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna) | Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 51 | 35 |
| Save % | 76% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- CD Guadalajara – Necaxa21 October 2026
- Atlético San Luis – Querétaro21 October 2026
- FC Juárez – Atlante21 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Tigres UANL – León21 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Atlas – Club América22 October 2026
- Puebla – Monterrey22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – Tijuana22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Pachuca – Cruz Azul22 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Atlante – Atlético San Luis24 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM according to our model?
The model gives Pumas UNAM a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Santos Laguna 36%, draw 25%, Pumas UNAM 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM?
The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Santos Laguna and 1.58 for Pumas UNAM, 3.00 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Santos Laguna or draw (1X) 61%, Pumas UNAM or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.