01 · 2 legs
Safe
- CD Guadalajara to win68%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Liga MXEstadio Akron, Guadalajara22°9 km/h
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CD GuadalajaraPossession & high press1–0
NecaxaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · CD Guadalajara (68%)Best value by the model: 2 · Necaxa @ 51.00 (+654 %)
CD Guadalajara vs Necaxa · Liga MX
1 · CD Guadalajara 68%X 18%15% Necaxa · 2
68%
18%
15%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for CD Guadalajara vs Necaxa (Liga MX, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): CD Guadalajara win 68%, draw 18%, Necaxa win 15%. Expected goals (xG): CD Guadalajara 2.10, Necaxa 1.13. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: CD Guadalajara or draw 85%, Necaxa or draw 32%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: CD Guadalajara – Necaxa
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: 68%: that's the colossal probability favoring CD Guadalajara in their clash against Necaxa, as underscored by model predictions. The host team, buoyed by a high pressing style, is expected to dominate possession and create significant scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Necaxa's focus on possession control could struggle to contain Guadalajara's aggressive approach, especially given their recent form disparity.
Despite Necaxa's modest edge in xPoints and xG per match, their xGA suggests vulnerabilities that Guadalajara is well positioned to exploit. A small head-to-head sample since 2023 shows Guadalajara ahead with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, and the current trends strongly tilt towards the hosts. Guadalajara's superior point tally and defensive solidity make them clear favorites, though Necaxa's propensity to create chances can't be dismissed entirely, hinting at a closely contested affair.
The model suggests a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, aligning with the expected flow of the game. Both teams are likely to find the net, contributing to potential scorelines of 2-1 or 2-0. For value seekers, an away win holds marginal expected value at odds of 6.8 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, albeit with a razor-thin edge of 1%. The standout play, however, is backing goals, with the numbers favoring an entertaining, goal-rich evening.
CD GuadalajaraForm WDLDD
League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #2xP/match #13Points #4
Key players
- Omar GoveaCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Fernando GonzalezCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
- Luis RomoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.26
NecaxaForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #8xP/match #8Points #17
Key players
- Julián Simón CarranzaFxG 0.69 · xT 0.05
- Ricardo MonrealRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Daniel Ulises LeyvaCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.22
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: CD Guadalajara 68% · Draw 18% · Necaxa 15%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - NecaxaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 17,75fair 16,38+8 %
MissMatchresultat - Chivas GuadalajaraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,02fair 4,71-36 %
MissMatch prediction: CD Guadalajara – Necaxa
Predicted score matrix
Necaxa →
CD Guadalajara →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.2%
0–14.2%
0–22.5%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.0%
1–19.7%
1–25.3%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.7%
2–19.9%
2–25.6%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–06.1%
3–16.9%
3–23.9%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–05.2%
4+–15.9%
4+–23.3%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,10–1,13
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,537%
@5.00EV+87%
Over 2,563%
@1.35
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- CD Guadalajara to win68%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Ángel Baltazar Sepúlveda Sánchez to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Ángel Baltazar Sepúlveda Sánchez to score39%
- Carlos Alonso Vargas Tenorio to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Necaxa15% probability@51.00Bet365EV+654%reference odds
- X · Draw18% probability@21.00Bet365EV+270%reference odds
- 2 · Necaxa15% probability@25.00LeoVegasEV+270%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · CD Guadalajara | X | 2 · Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.02 | EV+ 270% 21.00 | EV+ 654% 51.00 |
| Betsafe | 1.33 | 5.25 | EV+ 8% 7.30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.01 | EV+ 103% 11.50 | EV+ 270% 25.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.33 | 5.25 | EV+ 8% 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.38 | EV+ 23% 8.29 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 04:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a CD Guadalajara win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 1.41 to 1.36 (−3%).
1-3 %
71 %66 %
1.41 → 1.36
X+6 %
20 %15 %
5.07 → 5.38
2+27 %
15 %10 %
6.55 → 8.29
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCD Guadalajara 2Draw 1Necaxa 1
Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
CD Guadalajara
Necaxa
CD Guadalajara (19–12)
Necaxa (15–25)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
CD Guadalajara
Necaxa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
CD Guadalajara
Necaxa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | CD Guadalajara | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 9 |
| xPoints | 15.5 | 16.4 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | CD Guadalajara | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.72 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 504 | 329 |
| Passes against per match | 312 | 356 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.1 | 29.1 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 36 |
| Set pieces | CD Guadalajara | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 8 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| Other | CD Guadalajara | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara) | Luis Ronaldo Jiménez González (Necaxa) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 34 | 38 |
| Save % | 77% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Deportivo Toluca – Atlético San Luis18 October 2026
- León – Club América18 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Cruz Azul – FC Juárez18 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Atlético San Luis – Querétaro21 October 2026
- FC Juárez – Atlante21 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Tigres UANL – León21 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Atlas – Club América22 October 2026
- Puebla – Monterrey22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins CD Guadalajara vs Necaxa according to our model?
The model gives CD Guadalajara a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Guadalajara 68%, draw 18%, Necaxa 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in CD Guadalajara vs Necaxa?
The model expects 2.10 goals (xG) for CD Guadalajara and 1.13 for Necaxa, 3.23 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
CD Guadalajara or draw (1X) 85%, Necaxa or draw (X2) 32% and no draw (12) 82%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.