Monterrey vs Pachuca: Prediction & Odds (19 Oct 2026)

Liga MX19 October 2026 03:00 CESTEstadio BBVA, Monterrey15°8 km/h

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MonterreyPossession control

2–1

PachucaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Monterrey (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Pachuca @ 5.49 (+20 %)

1 · Monterrey 52%X 26%22% Pachuca · 2

52%

26%

22%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Monterrey vs Pachuca (Liga MX, Monday, 19 October 2026): Monterrey win 52%, draw 26%, Pachuca win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Monterrey 1.85, Pachuca 1.03. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Monterrey or draw 78%, Pachuca or draw 48%. Prediction updated Sunday, 11 October 2026.

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Analysis: Monterrey – Pachuca

Anna Karlsson · 18 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Monterrey's 52% probability of victory stands out as the pivotal figure. This indicates a clear model preference for the hosts, underpinned by superior expected goals (1.85 to 1.03) and points (14 to 13) compared to Pachuca. Despite the visitors having edged the head-to-head record since 2023, winning four of the seven encounters, the small sample size diminishes its significance. The home side also boasts a robust historical win rate of 57% at their stadium.

The match is projected to be tightly contested, with the most likely scorelines concentrated around narrow margins: 1-1 (11%) and 1-0 or 2-1 in favor of Monterrey (both at 10%). Both teams deploy possession-centric styles, which could lead to a tactical battle rather than a free-flowing spectacle. However, the fixture traditionally yields 3.3 goals per meeting on average, aligning with the model's 55% lean towards over 2.5 goals. Additionally, the model suggests a 54% likelihood for both teams to score.

For bettors seeking value, the draw appears enticing at odds of 3.95 with LeoVegas, offering a 2% edge based on the model's 26% probability. Alternatively, Pachuca's win at odds of 4.65 with either Betsafe or Nordicbet presents a modest 1% edge, given the model's 22% rating.

Monterrey

Form LDWLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #5xP/match #5Points #12

Key players

Victor GuzmanCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Lucas OcamposCAMxG 0.51 · xT 0.14
Oliver TorresCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.34

Pachuca

Form WWDLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #4xP/match #17Points #14

Key players

Salomon RondonFxG 0.63 · xT 0.02
Oussama IdrissiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.25
Eduardo BauermannCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.05

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Monterrey 52% · Draw 26% · Pachuca 22%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MonterreyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,29fair 6,05-29 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PachucaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,70fair 19,58-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Monterrey – Pachuca

Predicted score matrix

Pachuca →

Monterrey →

0–05.9%

0–15.5%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.1%

1–111.0%

1–25.5%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.6%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.0%

3–16.1%

3–23.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.3%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,85–1,03

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.38EV+7%

Over 2,555%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Monterrey to win52%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Monterrey to win52%
Over 2.5 goals55%
César Garza Cantú to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals55%
César Garza Cantú to score23%
Christian Hernando Rivera Cuéllar to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Pachuca22% probability@5.49PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@4.33PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@4.20LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Monterrey	X	2 · Pachuca
Betsafe	1.58	EV+ 4% 4.05	EV+ 7% 4.90
LeoVegas	1.58	EV+ 8% 4.20	EV+ 4% 4.75
Nordicbet	1.58	EV+ 4% 4.05	EV+ 7% 4.90
Pinnacle	1.59	EV+ 12% 4.33	EV+ 20% 5.49

Odds updated 19 Oct, 04:23

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Monterrey win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 1.65 to 1.59 (−4%).

1-4 %

61 %56 %

1.65 → 1.59

X-1 %

25 %20 %

4.36 → 4.33

2+24 %

22 %17 %

4.43 → 5.49

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Monterrey 3Draw 0Pachuca 4

Goals: 10–13 (⌀ 3,3)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.3 goals per meeting on average.
CF Monterrey win 57% of their home matches all-time (67 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Monterrey

Pachuca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Monterrey (17–15)

Pachuca (18–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Monterrey

Pachuca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Monterrey

Pachuca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Monterrey	Pachuca
Points	14	13
xPoints	15.3	12.6
xG per match	1.5	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.12

Playing style	Monterrey	Pachuca
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.6	0.5
xT per match	1.2	1.2
xTA per match	0.78	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	26
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	401	322
Passes against per match	296	367
Switches of play per match	35.9	33.3
Long balls per match	41	46

Set pieces	Monterrey	Pachuca
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.1
Corners per match	6.4	5
Corners against per match	3	4.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.58

Other	Monterrey	Pachuca
Throw-in control	0.7	0.7

The goalkeepers	Esteban Andrada (Monterrey)	Carlos Moreno (Pachuca)
Saves	15	37
Save %	75%	73%
xG prevented	30%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Monterrey

Fixtures, form & tips

Pachuca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Monterrey vs Pachuca according to our model?

The model gives Monterrey a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monterrey 52%, draw 26%, Pachuca 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Monterrey vs Pachuca?

The model expects 1.85 goals (xG) for Monterrey and 1.03 for Pachuca, 2.88 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Monterrey or draw (1X) 78%, Pachuca or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.