01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Necaxa or draw (1X)63%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio Victoria, Aguascalientes17°40,5 mm10 km/h
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NecaxaPossession control0–2
AtlasPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Necaxa (38%)
Necaxa vs Atlas · Liga MX
1 · Necaxa 38%X 26%36% Atlas · 2
38%
26%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Necaxa vs Atlas (Liga MX, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Necaxa win 38%, draw 26%, Atlas win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Necaxa 1.46, Atlas 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Necaxa or draw 64%, Atlas or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Necaxa – Atlas
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A tight contest looms with Necaxa's home advantage nudging them as slight favorites, despite trailing Atlas in the standings by nine points. The numbers sketch a portrait of parity: both teams share identical expected goals per match at 1.46, while the model's lean towards Necaxa is underscored by their superior xPoints (15.6 to 13.2). Small sample head-to-head data since 2023 shows Atlas with a slight edge, with Necaxa winning just once in four encounters (1W 1D 2L).
Both sides exhibit a penchant for possession, but Atlas's ability to find the net in eight straight matches cannot be ignored. Their potential to breach Necaxa's defense is mirrored in the most likely scoreline of 1-1, registering at 12% probability. The model's suggestion of a 56% chance for over 2.5 goals reflects their collective scoring potential, though the adverse weather might dampen this outlook.
The market offers a silver lining: Club Necaxa presents value at 2.60 with Betfair. Despite the statistical deadlock, this slightly undervalued edge aligns with the model's preference for the hosts. In such a clash of equal forces, the numbers hint at a cautious 1-1 draw, with goal count leaning towards the over — but tread carefully with the rain in play.
NecaxaForm DLLLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #15xT #11xP/match #6Points #17
Key players
- Julián Simón CarranzaFxG 0.74 · xT 0.04
- Ricardo MonrealRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Daniel Ulises LeyvaCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.22
AtlasForm DLDWD
League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #16xP/match #16Points #6
Key players
- Aldo RochaCDMxG 0.23 · xT 0.09
- Juan Jose PurataCBxG 0.29 · xT 0.08
- Florián Gonzalo de Jesús MonzónFxG 0.43 · xT 0.02
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Necaxa 38% · Draw 26% · Atlas 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - NecaxaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,08fair 8,84+3 %
MissMatchresultat - AtlasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,93fair 8,81-33 %
MissMatch prediction: Necaxa – Atlas
Predicted score matrix
Atlas →
Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–17.6%
0–25.8%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–07.5%
1–111.8%
1–28.4%
1–34.1%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.7%
2–18.4%
2–26.1%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–02.8%
3–14.1%
3–23.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,46–1,46
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.27EV+0%
Over 2,556%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Necaxa or draw (1X)63%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Julián Simón Carranza to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Florián Gonzalo de Jesús Monzón to score27%
- Lorenzo Abel Faravelli to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Necaxa38% probability@3.66PinnacleEV+39%reference odds
- 1 · Necaxa38% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- 1 · Necaxa38% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Necaxa | X | 2 · Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 19% 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 15% 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 19% 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 39% 3.66 | 3.77 | 2.00 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 04:16
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Atlas win since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 2.67 to 2.00 (−25%).
1+45 %
42 %22 %
2.53 → 3.66
X+7 %
36 %16 %
3.52 → 3.77
2-25 %
52 %32 %
2.67 → 2.00
Over 2,5-4 %
66 %46 %
1.75 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNecaxa 1Draw 1Atlas 2
Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Atlas Guadalajara have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Necaxa
Atlas
Necaxa (15–23)
Atlas (17–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Necaxa
Atlas
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Necaxa
Atlas
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Necaxa | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 18 |
| xPoints | 15.6 | 13.2 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Necaxa | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 328 | 350 |
| Passes against per match | 356 | 313 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.4 | 25.3 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Necaxa | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| Other | Necaxa | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Luis Ronaldo Jiménez González (Necaxa) | Camilo Vargas (Atlas) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 29 |
| Save % | 67% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- CD Guadalajara – Tigres UANL17 October 2026
- Atlante – Pumas UNAM17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Tijuana – Puebla17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Santos Laguna – Querétaro18 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – Atlético San Luis18 October 2026
- León – Club América18 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Cruz Azul – FC Juárez18 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Necaxa vs Atlas according to our model?
The model gives Necaxa a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Necaxa 38%, draw 26%, Atlas 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs Atlas?
The model expects 1.46 goals (xG) for Necaxa and 1.46 for Atlas, 2.92 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Necaxa or draw (1X) 64%, Atlas or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.