01 · 2 legs
Safe
- CD Guadalajara to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio Akron, Guadalajara20°1,8 mm11 km/h
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CD GuadalajaraPossession & high press1–1
Tigres UANLPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · CD Guadalajara (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Tigres UANL @ 4.49 (+12 %)
CD Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL · Liga MX
1 · CD Guadalajara 52%X 23%25% Tigres UANL · 2
52%
23%
25%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for CD Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX, Saturday, 17 October 2026): CD Guadalajara win 52%, draw 23%, Tigres UANL win 25%. Expected goals (xG): CD Guadalajara 1.78, Tigres UANL 1.15. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: CD Guadalajara or draw 75%, Tigres UANL or draw 48%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: CD Guadalajara – Tigres UANL
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
With both CD Guadalajara and Tigres UANL employing possession and high-press tactics, the clash at Estadio Akron is set to hinge on who can maintain their strategy under pressure. Despite the hosts edging the model probabilities at a 52% win chance, the visitors' historical edge in this fixture, albeit from a small sample of six matches, introduces a compelling wrinkle. Tigres have come out on top twice compared to Guadalajara's single win, with three draws peppering the recent head-to-head record.
The expected goals tell a nuanced story: Guadalajara's 1.78 expected goals suggest a slight attacking edge over Tigres' 1.15. However, Tigres manage to squeeze more out of their attacking opportunities on average, with 1.5 xG per match. This could be crucial if the game opens up, turning on moments of high pressure where Tigres might exploit any lapses in their opponent's high defensive line. Still, Guadalajara has shown resilience, particularly in defense, with a lower xGA of 1.1 against Tigres' 1.4.
With a 56% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring 57% of the time, the game leans towards a scoreline where goals could flow, despite the overarching tension of the encounter. The model's most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—paint a picture of a closely fought contest, with the hosts narrowly favored. Yet, the value angle here is intriguing: the over 3.5 goals at 3.05 odds with Betsafe and Nordicbet holds a 3% edge according to the model. Even more tantalizing is the bet on Tigres to win at odds of 4.1 with Betsafe, matching the model's 25% win probability and offering a tempting 3% edge for those looking for riskier returns.
CD GuadalajaraForm WWDLD
League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #2xP/match #14Points #4
Key players
- Omar GoveaCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Fernando GonzalezCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
- Luis RomoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.26
Tigres UANLForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #13xP/match #11Points #13
Key players
- Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.56 · xT 0.21
- Fernando GorriaranCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
- Diego LainezRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.17
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: CD Guadalajara 52% · Draw 23% · Tigres UANL 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Chivas GuadalajaraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,80fair 6,24-7 %
MissMatchresultat - TigresBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,60fair 14,91-16 %
MissMatch prediction: CD Guadalajara – Tigres UANL
Predicted score matrix
Tigres UANL →
CD Guadalajara →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–15.8%
0–23.5%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–09.2%
1–111.2%
1–26.3%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.5%
2–19.7%
2–25.6%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.0%
3–15.8%
3–23.3%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.4%
4+–13.9%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,78–1,15
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.04
Over 2,556%
@1.81EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- CD Guadalajara to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Roberto Carlos Alvarado Hernández to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Roberto Carlos Alvarado Hernández to score30%
- Fernando Gorriarán Fontes to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Tigres UANL25% probability@4.49PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 2 · Tigres UANL25% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- 2 · Tigres UANL25% probability@4.10NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · CD Guadalajara | X | 2 · Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.82 | 3.45 | EV+ 3% 4.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | 3.45 | EV+ 3% 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.56 | EV+ 12% 4.49 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1-2 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.85
X+3 %
30 %25 %
3.44 → 3.56
2+6 %
24 %19 %
4.23 → 4.49
Over 2,50 %
55 %50 %
1.82 → 1.81
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesCD Guadalajara 1Draw 3Tigres UANL 2
Goals: 6–9 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Tigres UANL dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
CD Guadalajara
Tigres UANL
CD Guadalajara (18–11)
Tigres UANL (13–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
CD Guadalajara
Tigres UANL
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
CD Guadalajara
Tigres UANL
The teams in numbers
| Performance | CD Guadalajara | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 13 |
| xPoints | 13.9 | 14.7 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | CD Guadalajara | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 0.77 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 503 | 341 |
| Passes against per match | 324 | 329 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.6 | 27.4 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 31 |
| Set pieces | CD Guadalajara | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 7.9 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| Other | CD Guadalajara | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara) | Nahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 35 |
| Save % | 78% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Necaxa – Atlas17 October 2026
- Atlante – Pumas UNAM17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Tijuana – Puebla17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Santos Laguna – Querétaro18 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – Atlético San Luis18 October 2026
- León – Club América18 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Cruz Azul – FC Juárez18 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins CD Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL according to our model?
The model gives CD Guadalajara a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Guadalajara 52%, draw 23%, Tigres UANL 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in CD Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?
The model expects 1.78 goals (xG) for CD Guadalajara and 1.15 for Tigres UANL, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
CD Guadalajara or draw (1X) 75%, Tigres UANL or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.