01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Cruz Azul to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Liga MX13°2,2 mm13 km/h
Läs på svenska
Cruz AzulPossession & high press5–0
FC JuárezPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Cruz Azul (77%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.22 (+4 %)
Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez · Liga MX
1 · Cruz Azul 77%X 16%8% FC Juárez · 2
77%
16%
Prediction summary
Final score 5–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez (Liga MX, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Cruz Azul win 77%, draw 16%, FC Juárez win 8%. Expected goals (xG): Cruz Azul 2.66, FC Juárez 0.86. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Cruz Azul or draw 92%, FC Juárez or draw 23%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Cruz Azul – FC Juárez
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Cruz Azul's penchant for high press and possession is poised to unsettle FC Juárez's more measured approach. As the hosts, they thrive in controlling the game's rhythm, a tactic that has seen them secure 65% of their home matches historically. This dominance is reflected in their expected goals tally of 2.66, suggesting they will likely breach Juárez's defense multiple times. The visitors, grappling with a leaky defense allowing an average of 2.0 goals per match, seem ill-equipped to withstand Cruz Azul's offensive onslaught.
The head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small sample of three games, tilts in favor of the home side with two wins. However, the real story lies in the contrasting form and underlying metrics. Cruz Azul's 17 points and xPoints of 15.1 significantly overshadow Juárez's respective figures of 4 and 10.7. This disparity signals a gulf in quality, which Cruz Azul should exploit, especially given their robust goal-scoring record.
Goals seem to be on the menu, with the model predicting a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams finding the net. While the expected weather conditions of rain might dampen the goal rate slightly, the high probability of a decisive Cruz Azul victory remains intact. The model leans towards a commanding 2-0 or 3-0 win, indicating a strong home performance.
For bettors seeking value, the over 3.5 goals market at odds of 2.28 with Betsafe presents a 7% edge, aligning with the model's lean towards a high-scoring affair. More adventurous punters might consider the over 4.5 goals at odds of 3.95 with either Betsafe or Nordicbet, where a notable 10% edge emerges. This angle captures the potential for Cruz Azul to fully capitalize on Juárez's defensive frailties.
Cruz AzulForm WWLDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #1xP/match #9Points #7
Key players
- Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.31
- Jesus Orozco ChiqueteCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
- Erik LiraCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
FC JuárezForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #17xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Haret OrtegaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
- Daniel Aldair Piña TorresCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
- Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Final score
5 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Cruz Azul 77% · Draw 16% · FC Juárez 8%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Cruz AzulBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,62fair 3,69-2 %
MissMatchresultat - FC JuárezBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 30,89fair 37,44-17 %
MissMatch prediction: Cruz Azul – FC Juárez
Predicted score matrix
FC Juárez →
Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.2%
0–12.3%
0–21.1%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–07.7%
1–17.0%
1–22.9%
1–30.8%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.0%
2–23.9%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–09.3%
3–18.0%
3–23.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–011.8%
4+–110.1%
4+–24.3%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
2,66–0,86
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
@2.58
Over 2,568%
@1.47EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Cruz Azul to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- José Antonio Paradela to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- José Antonio Paradela to score35%
- Denzell Arturo García Bojórquez to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.547% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- Over 3.547% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
- Over 4.528% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cruz Azul | X | 2 · FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.26 | 5.25 | 9.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.26 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.26 | 5.25 | 9.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.91 | 10.19 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 06:14
Odds movement
1-2 %
75 %70 %
1.31 → 1.29
X+9 %
19 %14 %
5.44 → 5.91
2+17 %
13 %8 %
8.68 → 10.19
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesCruz Azul 2Draw 0FC Juárez 1
Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 4,3)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CD Cruz Azul win 65% of their home matches all-time (48 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cruz Azul
FC Juárez
Cruz Azul (22–21)
FC Juárez (8–26)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
FC Juárez
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
FC Juárez
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cruz Azul | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 4 |
| xPoints | 15.1 | 10.7 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 0.93 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| Playing style | Cruz Azul | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 0.76 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 399 | 305 |
| Passes against per match | 292 | 409 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.9 | 27.1 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Cruz Azul | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 7.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.58 |
| Other | Cruz Azul | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul) | Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 49 |
| Save % | 66% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- CD Guadalajara – Tigres UANL17 October 2026
- Necaxa – Atlas17 October 2026
- Atlante – Pumas UNAM17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Tijuana – Puebla17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Santos Laguna – Querétaro18 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – Atlético San Luis18 October 2026
- León – Club América18 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- CD Guadalajara – Necaxa21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez according to our model?
The model gives Cruz Azul a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cruz Azul 77%, draw 16%, FC Juárez 8%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez?
The model expects 2.66 goals (xG) for Cruz Azul and 0.86 for FC Juárez, 3.52 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Cruz Azul or draw (1X) 92%, FC Juárez or draw (X2) 23% and no draw (12) 84%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.