01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Club América or draw (X2)69%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio León, León17°19 km/h
Läs på svenska
LeónPossession control3–5
Club AméricaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Club América (41%)Best value by the model: 1 · León @ 3.55 (+8 %)
León vs Club América · Liga MX
1 · León 30%X 29%41% Club América · 2
30%
29%
41%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–5. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for León vs Club América (Liga MX, Sunday, 18 October 2026): León win 30%, draw 29%, Club América win 41%. Expected goals (xG): León 1.32, Club América 1.59. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: León or draw 59%, Club América or draw 70%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: León – Club América
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In the four encounters since 2023, León have failed to secure a victory over América, managing only two draws and suffering two losses. Although a small sample, it hints at an edge for América, which aligns with their slight statistical and form advantages. The numbers back this up, with América leading in points, expected points, and expected goals metrics. León, while consistent in hitting the net, face a side that not only scores regularly but also exhibits a slightly more robust defense.
León's style is built on possession control, which may clash with América's high-pressing approach. This tactical tension could dictate the flow of the game, potentially stifling León's rhythm. Though both teams come into this match with impressive scoring streaks — León on nine and América on twelve — América's ability to combine possession with pressure might tip the scales in their favor. América's capacity to win possession high up the pitch could be pivotal.
Most likely scorelines suggest a tight affair, with 1-1 being the most probable outcome, followed by a narrow América victory. The expected goals for each side are closely matched, yet lean towards América, reflecting their recent form and threat in attack. With 56% odds of exceeding 2.5 goals, the match has potential for goals, but given the defensive capabilities of both, a close scoreline seems more plausible.
The combination of historical head-to-head outcomes and current metrics indicates a favorable scenario for América. While no outcome is assured, the stats and trends point towards América emerging narrowly on top.
LeónForm LWDWD
League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #9xP/match #7Points #5
Key players
- Diber CambindoFxG 0.50 · xT 0.10
- Juan José Guevara PossúCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
- Ivan MorenoRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
Club AméricaForm WLDWD
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #8xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Israel ReyesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.16
- Miguel VazquezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
- Alan CervantesCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
Final score
3 – 5
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: León 30% · Draw 29% · Club América 41%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LeónBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,56fair 10,86-12 %
MissMatchresultat - AméricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,08fair 7,47-19 %
HitMatch prediction: León – Club América
Predicted score matrix
Club América →
León →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–18.3%
0–26.9%
0–33.7%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–06.8%
1–111.7%
1–29.1%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.8%
2
2–04.7%
2–17.5%
2–26.0%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.3%
3–22.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.5%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,32–1,59
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.17
Over 2,556%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Club América or draw (X2)69%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score35%
- Juan José Guevara Possú to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · León30% probability@3.55PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.61PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.50LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · León | X | 2 · Club América |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| LeoVegas | 3.20 | EV+ 1% 3.50 | 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 8% 3.55 | EV+ 4% 3.61 | 2.09 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 04:14
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Club América win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 2.21 to 2.09 (−5%).
1+12 %
31 %26 %
3.17 → 3.55
X+7 %
30 %25 %
3.37 → 3.61
2-5 %
47 %42 %
2.21 → 2.09
Over 2,5+4 %
58 %53 %
1.68 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLeón 0Draw 2Club América 2
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Club Leon FC have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- CF America have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
León
Club América
León (15–12)
Club América (22–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
León
Club América
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
León
Club América
The teams in numbers
| Performance | León | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 21 |
| xPoints | 15.5 | 16.9 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | León | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.99 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 358 | 392 |
| Passes against per match | 360 | 292 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.7 | 39.7 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 44 |
| Set pieces | León | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 6.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| Other | León | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Oscar Garcia (León) | Rodolfo Cota (Club América) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 25 |
| Save % | 74% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- CD Guadalajara – Tigres UANL17 October 2026
- Necaxa – Atlas17 October 2026
- Atlante – Pumas UNAM17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Tijuana – Puebla17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Santos Laguna – Querétaro18 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – Atlético San Luis18 October 2026
- Cruz Azul – FC Juárez18 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- CD Guadalajara – Necaxa21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins León vs Club América according to our model?
The model gives Club América a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: León 30%, draw 29%, Club América 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in León vs Club América?
The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for León and 1.59 for Club América, 2.91 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
León or draw (1X) 59%, Club América or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.