Atlante vs Pumas UNAM: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Liga MX17 October 2026 05:00 CEST

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AtlanteLow block & direct

1–2

Pumas UNAMPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Atlante (36%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.56 (+6 %)

1 · Atlante 36%X 30%34% Pumas UNAM · 2

36%

30%

34%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Atlante vs Pumas UNAM (Liga MX, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Atlante win 36%, draw 30%, Pumas UNAM win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Atlante 1.28, Pumas UNAM 1.51. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Atlante or draw 66%, Pumas UNAM or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Atlante – Pumas UNAM

Sofia Andersson · 16 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Despite Pumas UNAM holding a slight edge in the points table with 13 points to Atlante's 11, the home team has a statistical edge in expected points (xPoints) and expected goals per match (xG). Atlante's xPoints stand at 15.4 compared to the visitors' 13.3, reflecting their underlying performances better than the raw points suggest. This mismatch between actual points and xPoints indicates that Atlante might be undervalued in this face-off.

The expected goals narrative further supports this notion, with Atlante boasting a slight edge in xG per match (1.2 vs 1.1). This aligns with their direct playing style, which can catch the more possession-focused Pumas UNAM off-guard. However, both teams share an identical expected goals against (xGA) of 1.5 per match, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities. The model leans slightly towards Atlante, offering them a 36% chance of victory, a sliver ahead of Pumas' 34%. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 reflect a tight contest, with a marginal leaning towards the visitors.

With a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability for both teams finding the net, the indicators are pointing toward a competitive match. Atlante's low defense might be exploited by the visitors' ability to maintain possession, yet Atlante's offensive capabilities could see them pulling an upset. The model suggests a narrow margin, but the potential for goals remains significant.

For those seeking value, the draw at odds of 3.45 with LeoVegas presents a noteworthy opportunity. The model, rating the draw at 30%, indicates a 3% edge — a subtle, yet tangible, advantage in a game poised to balance on a knife-edge.

Atlante

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #11xT #15xP/match #8Points #16

Key players

Eugenio PizzutoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
Luis Ángel Calzadilla SantillánLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.12
Martín Nicolás SarrafioreCAMxG 0.20 · xT 0.13

Pumas UNAM

Form WLDLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #12xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Rodrigo LopezRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
Ruben DuarteCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Atlante 36% · Draw 30% · Pumas UNAM 34%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Pumas UNAMBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,43fair 8,35-11 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AtlanteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,62fair 11,58-26 %

Miss

Match prediction: Atlante – Pumas UNAM

Predicted score matrix

Pumas UNAM →

Atlante →

0–06.5%

0–18.9%

0–27.0%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.9%

1–07.5%

1–112.2%

1–29.0%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.0%

2–17.6%

2–25.7%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.1%

3–13.2%

3–22.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,28–1,51

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.14EV+1%

Over 2,553%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Atlante or draw (1X)58%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Atlante or draw (1X)58%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Martín Nicolás Sarrafiore to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Martín Nicolás Sarrafiore to score21%
Israel Luna López to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.56PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Atlante	X	2 · Pumas UNAM
Betsafe	2.75	3.30	2.42
LeoVegas	2.70	3.35	2.40
Nordicbet	2.75	3.30	2.42
Pinnacle	2.61	EV+ 6% 3.56	2.69

Odds updated 17 Oct, 06:17

Odds movement

1+5 %

39 %34 %

2.49 → 2.61

X+2 %

30 %25 %

3.48 → 3.56

2-2 %

39 %34 %

2.75 → 2.69

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %51 %

1.78 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atlante

Pumas UNAM

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atlante (12–17)

Pumas UNAM (17–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atlante

Pumas UNAM

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atlante

Pumas UNAM

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atlante	Pumas UNAM
Points	11	13
xPoints	15.4	13.3
xG per match	1.2	1.1
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.13

Playing style	Atlante	Pumas UNAM
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.46	0.39
xT per match	0.89	1
xTA per match	1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	25	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.7	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.69
Passes per match	280	332
Passes against per match	398	401
Switches of play per match	18.7	30.8
Long balls per match	25	36

Set pieces	Atlante	Pumas UNAM
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.6	5.8
Corners against per match	6.2	4.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.51

Other	Atlante	Pumas UNAM
Throw-in control	0.66	0.71

The goalkeepers	Oscar Jimenez (Atlante)	Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM)
Saves	41	30
Save %	71%	61%
xG prevented	48%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atlante

Fixtures, form & tips

Pumas UNAM

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atlante vs Pumas UNAM according to our model?

The model gives Atlante a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlante 36%, draw 30%, Pumas UNAM 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Atlante vs Pumas UNAM?

The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Atlante and 1.51 for Pumas UNAM, 2.79 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Atlante or draw (1X) 66%, Pumas UNAM or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.