01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Tijuana to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Liga MXEstadio Caliente, Tijuana26°40 km/h
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TijuanaLow block & direct0–0
PueblaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Tijuana (58%)
Tijuana vs Puebla · Liga MX
1 · Tijuana 58%X 24%19% Puebla · 2
58%
24%
19%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tijuana vs Puebla (Liga MX, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Tijuana win 58%, draw 24%, Puebla win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Tijuana 1.88, Puebla 0.98. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Tijuana or draw 81%, Puebla or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Tijuana – Puebla
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
In the final paragraph, "under 2.5 goals" contradicts the 54% over 2.5 goals probability. Corrected text:
Tijuana's direct approach will be crucial against Puebla's similar low-defense tactics. With both teams leaning heavily on direct play, the game will likely hinge on who can capitalize on quick transitions. The hosts, Tijuana, not only hold a statistical edge with an xG of 1.88 compared to Puebla's 0.98, but they also exhibit a strong threat within 8 seconds of regaining possession. This ability to spring forward rapidly could tilt the contest in their favor.
Recent head-to-head encounters, albeit from a small sample of four games, have seen Tijuana win just once against Puebla. However, this historical data pales beside the current form and expected goals, where Tijuana shows superiority. The xPoints tally also tilts towards the home side, suggesting they have been the more consistent performers.
Statistical models give Tijuana a 58% probability of taking the win, with key scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0 emerging as likely outcomes. This further underscores a tight contest but leans towards a narrow home victory. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 54%, slightly hinting at the potential for a few goals, yet the both-teams-to-score chance being 53% indicates a balanced battle.
For bettors looking at value, Tijuana at odds of 1.78 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 1.769 with LeoVegas, offers an enticing opportunity. The model rates it as a 58% likelihood, presenting a 2-3% edge. This profitable angle reflects Tijuana's statistical and tactical advantages.
In conclusion, expect a closely contested match with Tijuana's home edge and direct play likely proving decisive. The most probable scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0 aligns with the numbers, making a home win with over 2.5 goals a reasonable play.
TijuanaForm WLDLD
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #6xP/match #1Points #8
Key players
- Alejandro GomezCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
- Ignacio RiveroRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
- Gilberto MoraCAMxG 1.01 · xT 0.20
PueblaForm WLDLD
League ranking xG #17xGA #7xT #18xP/match #10Points #9
Key players
- Kevin VelascoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
- Alejandro Organista OrozcoCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
- Emiliano GomezLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Tijuana 58% · Draw 24% · Puebla 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Club TijuanaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,48fair 6,00-9 %
MissMatchresultat - PueblaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,67fair 22,11-29 %
MissMatch prediction: Tijuana – Puebla
Predicted score matrix
Puebla →
Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–15.3%
0–22.7%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–010.5%
1–110.9%
1–25.1%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.2%
2–19.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.4%
3–16.2%
3–23.0%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–04.6%
4+–14.5%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-06%
Expected goals
1,88–0,98
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.07
Over 2,554%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Tijuana to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Gilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Gilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano to score29%
- Sergio Abel Sanabria Ortega to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tijuana | X | 2 · Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.96 | 5.22 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 06:17
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Tijuana win since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 1.82 to 1.68 (−8%).
1-8 %
59 %49 %
1.82 → 1.68
X+6 %
30 %20 %
3.74 → 3.96
2+26 %
26 %16 %
4.15 → 5.22
Over 2,5+1 %
59 %49 %
1.77 → 1.80
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesTijuana 1Draw 1Puebla 2
Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tijuana
Puebla
Tijuana (15–14)
Puebla (12–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tijuana
Puebla
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tijuana
Puebla
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tijuana | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 15 |
| xPoints | 17.5 | 14.9 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 0.93 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Tijuana | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 312 | 299 |
| Passes against per match | 412 | 432 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.7 | 31 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Tijuana | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| Other | Tijuana | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Antonio Rodriguez (Tijuana) | Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 39 | 34 |
| Save % | 74% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- CD Guadalajara – Tigres UANL17 October 2026
- Necaxa – Atlas17 October 2026
- Atlante – Pumas UNAM17 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Santos Laguna – Querétaro18 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – Atlético San Luis18 October 2026
- León – Club América18 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Cruz Azul – FC Juárez18 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tijuana vs Puebla according to our model?
The model gives Tijuana a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tijuana 58%, draw 24%, Puebla 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Tijuana vs Puebla?
The model expects 1.88 goals (xG) for Tijuana and 0.98 for Puebla, 2.86 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Tijuana or draw (1X) 81%, Puebla or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.