Puebla vs Monterrey Prediction: Away win 49% (22 Oct 2026)

Liga MX22 October 2026 03:00 CESTEstadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla17°0,5 mm18 km/h

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PueblaPossession control

MonterreyPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Monterrey (49%)Best value by the model: No @ 2.38 (+13 %)

1 · Puebla 25%X 26%49% Monterrey · 2

25%

26%

49%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Puebla vs Monterrey (Liga MX, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Puebla win 25%, draw 26%, Monterrey win 49%. Expected goals (xG): Puebla 1.05, Monterrey 1.63. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Puebla or draw 51%, Monterrey or draw 75%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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Analysis: Puebla – Monterrey

Anna Karlsson · 20 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The anticipation centers around Monterrey's superior attacking efficiency as they prepare to face Puebla. With Monterrey boasting a higher expected goals (xG) figure of 1.63 compared to Puebla's 1.05, the visitors enter the clash with a clear offensive edge. This statistical disparity hints at a key narrative: Monterrey's capacity to translate possession into genuine scoring opportunities, a crucial factor in this matchup.

Puebla's home advantage seems to offer little solace. Their expected goals against (xGA) sits at 1.3, indicating potential vulnerabilities that Monterrey's forwards could exploit. Despite their possession-based style, Puebla has struggled to convert control into tangible results, as seen in their lack of victories in the last four head-to-head encounters. The small sample size of these meetings shouldn't overshadow the visitors' consistent edge, both in current form and expected points.

Odds set Monterrey as the likelier victor with a 49% probability. Though a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable scoreline at 12%, Monterrey's 0-1 and 1-2 victories at 11% and 10% respectively suggest a slight edge towards a narrow away win. These scenarios underline a balance between both teams scoring and a potential over 2.5 goals outcome, with the over/under hovering at 50%.

For those looking to capitalize on value, Bet365 offers Monterrey to win at 2.00 odds, reflecting positive expected value given their statistical supremacy and recent success against Puebla. While nothing in football is certain, this matchup leans towards Monterrey exploiting their attacking prowess to secure a slender victory.

Puebla

Form LDLDD

League ranking xG #17xGA #7xT #18xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Kevin VelascoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
Emiliano GomezLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
Brayan GarnicaRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.12

Monterrey

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #6xP/match #3Points #8

Key players

Victor GuzmanCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Lucas OcamposRWxG 0.60 · xT 0.13
Ricardo ChavezRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Puebla – Monterrey

Predicted score matrix

Monterrey →

Puebla →

0–07.2%

0–110.8%

0–29.1%

0–35.0%

0–4+2.9%

1–06.8%

1–112.1%

1–29.6%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.1%

2–03.8%

2–16.2%

2–25.0%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.3%

3–12.2%

3–21.8%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,05–1,63

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.05EV+2%

Over 2,550%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Monterrey to win49%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Monterrey to win49%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Lucas Ariel Ocampos Lain to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Lucas Ariel Ocampos Lain to score30%
Alejandro Organista Orozco to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Both teams to score: No47% probability@2.38BetMGM UKEV+13%reference odds
Under 2.550% probability@2.05PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
Under 3.572% probability@1.40LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Puebla	X	2 · Monterrey
BetMGM UK	3.25	3.55	2.00
Betsafe	3.70	3.60	1.88
LeoVegas	3.65	3.55	1.92
Nordicbet	3.70	3.60	1.88
Pinnacle	3.85	3.76	1.94

Odds updated 22 Oct, 04:10

Odds movement

1-4 %

26 %21 %

4.01 → 3.85

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.74 → 3.76

2+5 %

54 %49 %

1.85 → 1.94

Over 2,5+2 %

57 %52 %

1.79 → 1.83

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Puebla 0Draw 1Monterrey 3

Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Puebla

Monterrey

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Puebla (12–13)

Monterrey (19–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Puebla

Monterrey

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Puebla

Monterrey

The teams in numbers

Performance	Puebla	Monterrey
Points	16	17
xPoints	15.7	17.7
xG per match	0.9	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.22

Playing style	Puebla	Monterrey
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.43	0.59
xT per match	0.7	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	23	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.27
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.74	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	295	401
Passes against per match	427	302
Switches of play per match	29.5	37.1
Long balls per match	35	42

Set pieces	Puebla	Monterrey
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.6	6.1
Corners against per match	6.9	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.67

Other	Puebla	Monterrey
Throw-in control	0.67	0.7

The goalkeepers	Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla)	Esteban Andrada (Monterrey)
Saves	40	17
Save %	78%	74%
xG prevented	53%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Puebla

Fixtures, form & tips

Monterrey

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Puebla vs Monterrey according to our model?

The model gives Monterrey a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Puebla 25%, draw 26%, Monterrey 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Monterrey?

The model expects 1.05 goals (xG) for Puebla and 1.63 for Monterrey, 2.69 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Puebla or draw (1X) 51%, Monterrey or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.