01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Atlante or draw (X2)71%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juárez20°12 km/h
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FC JuárezPossession control0–1
AtlanteLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Atlante (43%)
FC Juárez vs Atlante · Liga MX
1 · FC Juárez 30%X 26%43% Atlante · 2
30%
26%
43%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for FC Juárez vs Atlante (Liga MX, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): FC Juárez win 30%, draw 26%, Atlante win 43%. Expected goals (xG): FC Juárez 1.26, Atlante 1.63. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: FC Juárez or draw 57%, Atlante or draw 70%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: FC Juárez – Atlante
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
With Atlante holding a 43% probability of winning and Juárez only at 30%, the visitors appear to have the upper hand heading into this Liga MX match. The likely scorelines of 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), and 0-1 (9%) suggest a tight contest, but favor Atlante, who have been more effective in converting their chances this season.
Juárez's approach is built on possession control, yet they often struggle to translate that into meaningful attacking opportunities. Their expected goals per match stand at a modest 0.89, which pales in comparison to Atlante’s 1.1. Defensively, Juárez concedes more frequently with an expected goals against of 2.0, indicating potential vulnerabilities against Atlante's direct play style.
Despite Juárez's control in possession, Atlante’s low defensive block and quick transitions have earned them 11 points to Juárez’s 4, and a glance at xPoints gives a similar picture: 16.8 against 11.1. The model suggests more goals than the average match, with a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. Nevertheless, the focus remains on Atlante’s better positioning and strategic play.
For those looking at the betting landscape, the standout angle is the value on Atlante to win at odds of 2.35 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. The model’s assessment suggests a 2% edge, reinforcing the expectation of an away victory. This isn’t a guarantee, but in a game where the numbers consistently lean towards Atlante, it is an astute play.
FC JuárezForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #17xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Haret OrtegaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
- Daniel Aldair Piña TorresCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
- Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
AtlanteForm LDWLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #10xT #15xP/match #7Points #16
Key players
- Eugenio PizzutoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
- Luis Ángel Calzadilla SantillánLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
- Walter PortalesRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
Final score
0 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: FC Juárez 30% · Draw 26% · Atlante 43%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AtlanteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,60fair 7,24-9 %
MissMatchresultat - FC JuárezBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,79fair 11,96-18 %
MissMatch prediction: FC Juárez – Atlante
Predicted score matrix
Atlante →
FC Juárez →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–18.7%
0–27.4%
0–34.0%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–06.7%
1–111.8%
1–29.3%
1–35.0%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.4%
2–17.2%
2–25.9%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.0%
3–22.5%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,26–1,63
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.02
Over 2,555%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Atlante or draw (X2)71%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa to score21%
- Denzell Arturo García Bojórquez to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Atlante43% probability@2.65BetMGM UKEV+15%reference odds
- 1 · FC Juárez30% probability@3.33PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Juárez | X | 2 · Atlante |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 2.43 | 3.35 | EV+ 15% 2.65 |
| Betsafe | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 3.33 | 3.59 | 2.18 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 04:17
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Atlante win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 2.18 (−6%).
1+13 %
33 %28 %
2.96 → 3.33
X+2 %
29 %24 %
3.52 → 3.59
2-6 %
45 %40 %
2.32 → 2.18
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Juárez
Atlante
FC Juárez (8–31)
Atlante (13–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Atlante
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Atlante
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Juárez | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 11 |
| xPoints | 11.1 | 16.8 |
| xG per match | 0.89 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | FC Juárez | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 308 | 286 |
| Passes against per match | 416 | 395 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 18.8 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 25 |
| Set pieces | FC Juárez | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.6 |
| Other | FC Juárez | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez) | Oscar Jimenez (Atlante) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 53 | 42 |
| Save % | 65% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- León – Club América18 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Cruz Azul – FC Juárez18 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- CD Guadalajara – Necaxa21 October 2026
- Atlético San Luis – Querétaro21 October 2026
- Tigres UANL – León21 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Atlas – Club América22 October 2026
- Puebla – Monterrey22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Deportivo Toluca – Tijuana22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Juárez vs Atlante according to our model?
The model gives Atlante a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Juárez 30%, draw 26%, Atlante 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in FC Juárez vs Atlante?
The model expects 1.26 goals (xG) for FC Juárez and 1.63 for Atlante, 2.89 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
FC Juárez or draw (1X) 57%, Atlante or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.