01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Atlético San Luis or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Liga MXEstadio Alfonso Lastras, San Luis Potosí15°16 km/h
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Atlético San LuisBalanced & physical2–1
QuerétaroLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Atlético San Luis (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.11 (+0 %)
Atlético San Luis vs Querétaro · Liga MX
1 · Atlético San Luis 39%X 27%34% Querétaro · 2
39%
27%
34%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Atlético San Luis vs Querétaro (Liga MX, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Atlético San Luis win 39%, draw 27%, Querétaro win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Atlético San Luis 1.49, Querétaro 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Atlético San Luis or draw 66%, Querétaro or draw 61%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: Atlético San Luis – Querétaro
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Atlético San Luis enters their matchup against Querétaro with a balanced and physical style that contrasts sharply with the visitors' low-defense, direct approach. Despite the home ground advantage for San Luis and a slight model lean towards them, Querétaro's recent form and expected goals suggest otherwise.
Querétaro has been efficient in their execution, reflected by their xG of 1.4 per match, marginally higher than San Luis's 1.2. This efficiency gives them a slight upper hand offensively. Despite the small head-to-head sample size of just four games, each team claiming two victories, Querétaro's current momentum and superior points tally of 20 against San Luis's 13 cannot be ignored.
The model suggests a 39% win probability for San Luis, but with Querétaro priced at 3.0 on LeoVegas—offering a 2% edge—there's value to be found backing the visitors. This aligns with the 34% chance attributed to Querétaro, indicating the market may have underestimated their potential, especially given their xPoints edge of 17.1 over the hosts’ 15.2.
A predicted 1-1 scoreline (12%) highlights the potential for a tightly contested affair, with the over 2.5 goals just tipping over the 50% mark. Both teams are expected to find the net (56%), yet the physical nature of San Luis might stifle scoring opportunities, keeping the game balanced.
Given the odds and Querétaro's overall edge in xG and points, backing the away win at 3.0 with LeoVegas looks like the sharpest angle. While San Luis has been solid at home, the visitors' direct style and recent form make them a compelling value bet.
Atlético San LuisForm LWWLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #13xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Sebastien Salles LamongeCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
- Román Torres AcostaRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
- Eduardo AguilaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
QuerétaroForm WDWWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #11xP/match #5Points #6
Key players
- Santiago HomenchenkoCMxG 0.32 · xT 0.18
- Ali AvilaFxG 0.37 · xT 0.06
- Iker Benito SánchezRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.22
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Atlético San Luis 39% · Draw 27% · Querétaro 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Atlético San LuisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,04fair 8,57-18 %
MissMatchresultat - Querétaro F.C.Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,20fair 11,47-20 %
MissMatch prediction: Atlético San Luis – Querétaro
Predicted score matrix
Querétaro →
Atlético San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–17.6%
0–25.1%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.9%
1–112.3%
1–27.7%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.9%
2–18.9%
2–25.7%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.4%
3–22.8%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,49–1,29
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.11EV+0%
Over 2,553%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Atlético San Luis or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- David Rodríguez Uribe to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Alí Ávila Vega to score23%
- Johan Caicedo Caicedo to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.547% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Atlético San Luis | X | 2 · Querétaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Betsafe | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.55 | 2.92 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 04:17
Odds movement
1+8 %
44 %39 %
2.24 → 2.43
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.49 → 3.55
2-6 %
34 %29 %
3.10 → 2.92
Over 2,5-1 %
55 %50 %
1.78 → 1.77
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAtlético San Luis 2Draw 0Querétaro 2
Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atlético San Luis
Querétaro
Atlético San Luis (16–21)
Querétaro (15–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atlético San Luis
Querétaro
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atlético San Luis
Querétaro
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Atlético San Luis | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 20 |
| xPoints | 15.2 | 17.1 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Atlético San Luis | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.93 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 415 | 248 |
| Passes against per match | 387 | 424 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.2 | 19.8 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Atlético San Luis | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 7.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| Other | Atlético San Luis | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Manuel Gibrán Lajud Bojalil (Atlético San Luis) | Guillermo Allison (Querétaro) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 40 |
| Save % | 74% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Deportivo Toluca – Atlético San Luis18 October 2026
- León – Club América18 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Cruz Azul – FC Juárez18 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Monterrey – Pachuca19 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- CD Guadalajara – Necaxa21 October 2026
- FC Juárez – Atlante21 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Tigres UANL – León21 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Atlas – Club América22 October 2026
- Puebla – Monterrey22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atlético San Luis vs Querétaro according to our model?
The model gives Atlético San Luis a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlético San Luis 39%, draw 27%, Querétaro 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Atlético San Luis vs Querétaro?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Atlético San Luis and 1.29 for Querétaro, 2.78 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Atlético San Luis or draw (1X) 66%, Querétaro or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.