01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Cruz Azul to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Liga MXEstadio Corregidora, Querétaro16°7,2 mm19 km/h
Läs på svenska
QuerétaroLow block & directvs
Cruz AzulPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Cruz Azul (54%)
Querétaro vs Cruz Azul · Liga MX
1 · Querétaro 20%X 26%54% Cruz Azul · 2
20%
26%
54%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Querétaro vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX, Monday, 26 October 2026): Querétaro win 20%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul win 54%. Expected goals (xG): Querétaro 1.19, Cruz Azul 2.03. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Querétaro or draw 46%, Cruz Azul or draw 80%. Prediction updated Sunday, 18 October 2026.
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Analysis: Querétaro – Cruz Azul
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Cruz Azul enters this match with a 54% win probability, a solid edge against Querétaro's 20%. The most likely scorelines point towards a 1-1 or a 1-2 outcome, each given a 10% chance. The visitors' possession and high press style could exploit the hosts' low defense setup. Historical meetings since 2023 show a small head-to-head sample, with Cruz Azul unbeaten but only over four games — too little to outweigh current form.
Expected goals favor the visitors, with a 2.03 projected against Querétaro's 1.19. While the hosts have a slight xPoints edge, Cruz Azul leads in xG and xGA metrics, suggesting more potent offensive and defensive performances. The expected goals model further leans towards over 2.5 goals, given a 62% probability, though the forecasted rain might temper scoring slightly.
For bettors, the standout angle is backing Cruz Azul to win. Odds of 2.08 at Betsafe and Nordicbet offer exceptional value, with a calculated 13% edge based on a 54% win probability. LeoVegas also provides a worthwhile option at 2.05. In a match likely to favor the visitors, these odds make for a pragmatic, well-supported play.
QuerétaroForm DWWLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #10xP/match #5Points #7
Key players
- Santiago HomenchenkoCMxG 0.32 · xT 0.18
- Iker Benito SánchezRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
- Ali AvilaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.05
Cruz AzulForm WLDDW
League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #1xP/match #6Points #6
Key players
- Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.31
- Jesus Orozco ChiqueteCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
- Erik LiraCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Querétaro – Cruz Azul
Predicted score matrix
Cruz Azul →
Querétaro →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.3%
0–17.8%
0–28.2%
0–35.6%
0–4+4.5%
1
1–04.5%
1–19.9%
1–29.8%
1–36.6%
1–4+5.4%
2
2–02.8%
2–15.8%
2–25.8%
2–34.0%
2–4+3.2%
3
3–01.1%
3–12.3%
3–22.3%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-28%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,19–2,03
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.22
Over 2,562%
@1.62EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Cruz Azul to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Cruz Azul54% probability@1.98LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Cruz Azul54% probability@1.92BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Cruz Azul54% probability@1.92NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Querétaro | X | 2 · Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.45 | 3.60 | EV+ 4% 1.92 |
| LeoVegas | 3.40 | 3.55 | EV+ 8% 1.98 |
| Nordicbet | 3.45 | 3.60 | EV+ 4% 1.92 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 04:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 1.70 to 1.61 (−5%).
1+8 %
31 %26 %
3.15 → 3.40
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.55 → 3.55
2-2 %
48 %43 %
2.02 → 1.98
Over 2,5-5 %
58 %53 %
1.70 → 1.61
LeoVegas · 15 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesQuerétaro 0Draw 2Cruz Azul 2
Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Querétaro
Cruz Azul
Querétaro (16–15)
Cruz Azul (27–21)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Querétaro
Cruz Azul
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Querétaro
Cruz Azul
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Querétaro | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 20 |
| xPoints | 18.8 | 17.6 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Querétaro | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.92 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 261 | 406 |
| Passes against per match | 432 | 296 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.9 | 36.6 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Querétaro | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| Other | Querétaro | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Guillermo Allison (Querétaro) | Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 43 | 29 |
| Save % | 77% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Atlante – Atlético San Luis24 October 2026
- Necaxa – FC Juárez24 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- León – Deportivo Toluca25 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Monterrey – CD Guadalajara25 October 2026
- Atlas – Puebla25 October 2026
- Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL25 October 2026 04:00 CET
- Club América – Pachuca26 October 2026 02:00 CET
- Tijuana – Santos Laguna26 October 2026 04:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Querétaro vs Cruz Azul according to our model?
The model gives Cruz Azul a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Querétaro 20%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 54%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Querétaro vs Cruz Azul?
The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for Querétaro and 2.03 for Cruz Azul, 3.22 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Querétaro or draw (1X) 46%, Cruz Azul or draw (X2) 80% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.