Atlas vs Puebla Prediction: Home win 54% (25 Oct 2026)

Liga MX25 October 2026Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara23°10 km/h

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AtlasPossession control

PueblaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Atlas (54%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.88 (+1 %)

1 · Atlas 54%X 26%20% Puebla · 2

54%

26%

20%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Atlas vs Puebla (Liga MX, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Atlas win 54%, draw 26%, Puebla win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Atlas 1.72, Puebla 1.08. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Atlas or draw 80%, Puebla or draw 46%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Atlas – Puebla

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Four wins in their last four meetings with Puebla give Atlas a psychological advantage heading into this clash. However, it's worth noting that the sample size of these head-to-head encounters is small and less significant than recent form and expected goals. Atlas is riding a wave of scoring consistency, having found the net in ten consecutive league matches, showcasing their offensive prowess. This could bolster their confidence further as they face a Puebla side struggling to keep up in the scoring department.

Despite Atlas's apparent superiority in recent head-to-heads, the underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story. Atlas's expected goals (xG) per match stand at 1.5 compared to Puebla's 0.92, a clear indicator of the hosts' attacking edge. Yet, defensively, they concede more expected goals against (xGA) per match, with 1.7 to Puebla's 1.3. This suggests that while Atlas may create more chances, they are also more vulnerable at the back, which could open the door for Puebla to pounce on any defensive lapses.

The model probabilities favor Atlas with a 54% chance of victory, but the most likely scorelines are tightly contested: a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 home win both sit at 10-12%. The expected goals lean towards a slightly open game, hinting at a narrow victory for Atlas, possibly 2-1. With both teams deploying possession-focused styles, this battle for midfield dominance could be the key to unlocking defenses.

For bettors, the value may lie in backing Atlas's winning streak against Puebla, given their strong head-to-head record and scoring form. With a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, this market also offers intrigue, although caution is advised due to both teams' possession-oriented play possibly tempering goal-scoring opportunities.

Atlas

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #16xT #15xP/match #13Points #6

Key players

Kevin Andrés ZenónFxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
Luís André Leite EstevesCAMxG 0.29 · xT 0.17
Adonis FriasCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.07

Puebla

Form DLDDL

League ranking xG #17xGA #7xT #18xP/match #11Points #13

Key players

Brayan GarnicaRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Kevin VelascoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
Emiliano GomezLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Atlas – Puebla

Predicted score matrix

Puebla →

Atlas →

0–06.4%

0–16.3%

0–23.6%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.1%

1–111.6%

1–26.1%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–09.0%

2–19.7%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.1%

3–15.6%

3–23.0%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,72–1,08

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.01

Over 2,553%

@1.82

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Atlas to win54%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Atlas to win54%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Florián Gonzalo de Jesús Monzón to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Florián Gonzalo de Jesús Monzón to score36%
Alejandro Organista Orozco to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw26% probability@3.88PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Atlas	X	2 · Puebla
Betsafe	1.68	3.60	4.65
LeoVegas	1.73	3.65	4.40
Nordicbet	1.68	3.60	4.65
Pinnacle	1.68	EV+ 1% 3.88	4.83

Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Atlas 4Draw 0Puebla 0

Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

Atlas Guadalajara have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atlas

Puebla

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atlas (21–23)

Puebla (13–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atlas

Puebla

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atlas

Puebla

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atlas	Puebla
Points	21	16
xPoints	16.5	17.1
xG per match	1.5	0.92
xGA per match	1.7	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.19

Playing style	Atlas	Puebla
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.5	0.43
xT per match	0.87	0.73
xTA per match	1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	22	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.19
Entries into the box per match	12	9
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.69
Passes per match	353	297
Passes against per match	313	432
Switches of play per match	25.6	28.4
Long balls per match	31	35

Set pieces	Atlas	Puebla
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.03
Corners per match	5.8	4.4
Corners against per match	5.8	7
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.57

Other	Atlas	Puebla
Throw-in control	0.71	0.66

The goalkeepers	Camilo Vargas (Atlas)	Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla)
Saves	34	43
Save %	63%	74%
xG prevented	42%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atlas

Fixtures, form & tips

Puebla

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atlas vs Puebla according to our model?

The model gives Atlas a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlas 54%, draw 26%, Puebla 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Atlas vs Puebla?

The model expects 1.72 goals (xG) for Atlas and 1.08 for Puebla, 2.80 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Atlas or draw (1X) 80%, Puebla or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.