01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Monterrey or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Liga MXEstadio BBVA, Monterrey22°0,7 mm22 km/h
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MonterreyPossession controlvs
CD GuadalajaraPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Monterrey (41%)
Monterrey vs CD Guadalajara · Liga MX
1 · Monterrey 41%X 27%32% CD Guadalajara · 2
41%
27%
32%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Monterrey vs CD Guadalajara (Liga MX, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Monterrey win 41%, draw 27%, CD Guadalajara win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Monterrey 1.44, CD Guadalajara 1.35. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Monterrey or draw 68%, CD Guadalajara or draw 59%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Monterrey – CD Guadalajara
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Monterrey enters this clash with a statistical edge yet still finds itself behind Guadalajara in the league standings. The model leans towards a Monterrey victory, assigning them a 41% chance of winning, compared to a 32% probability for the visitors. Despite Guadalajara’s higher league points, Monterrey's underlying metrics, such as xPoints and xG, suggest they should be performing better. Their xG per match of 1.6 exceeds Guadalajara's 1.3, highlighting a sharper offensive potential.
The head-to-head record since 2023, however, is a small sample of four matches, with Monterrey managing just one win against Guadalajara's two. This history slightly muddies the waters but doesn't heavily weigh against Monterrey given their strong home statistics. The hosts have claimed victory in 57% of their past 68 home matches, showcasing a notable fortress mentality when playing at home.
While the expected goals for both teams are closely matched, Monterrey's marginal advantage in xPoints and xG indicates that they might find more success in front of the goal. The probability for both teams to score stands at 57%, aligning with the expectation of a tightly contested affair. The over 2.5 goals likelihood at 53% suggests goals will come, but not in a flood, reinforcing the model's most likely scorelines of 1-1 or 2-1.
The playing styles could dictate much of the game's flow. Monterrey's possession-focused approach may counter Guadalajara's high press effectively, setting the stage for a tactical battle. Both teams have defenses capable of withstanding pressure, with xGA figures nearly identical.
For those evaluating betting angles, Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer Monterrey at odds of 2.42, reflecting the model's 41% probability. This presents a zero-edge value situation, yet those believing in Monterrey's home form and statistical superiority might still see it as an intriguing option.
MonterreyForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #6xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Victor GuzmanCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
- Lucas OcamposRWxG 0.57 · xT 0.18
- Oliver TorresCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.32
CD GuadalajaraForm DLDDW
League ranking xG #12xGA #1xT #2xP/match #12Points #2
Key players
- Omar GoveaCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Fernando GonzalezCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
- Luis RomoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.25
Match prediction: Monterrey – CD Guadalajara
Predicted score matrix
CD Guadalajara →
Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–17.9%
0–25.6%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.5%
1–112.3%
1–28.1%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.6%
2–25.8%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.1%
3–22.8%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,44–1,35
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.90
Over 2,553%
@1.96EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Monterrey or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Hugo Jean-Marc Cuypers to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Ángel Baltazar Sepúlveda Sánchez to score32%
- César Garza Cantú to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Monterrey41% probability@2.60PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- Over 2.553% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Monterrey | X | 2 · CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.35 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Nordicbet | 2.35 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 8% 2.60 | 2.99 | 3.10 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 23 October — the odds have shortened from 2.14 to 1.89 (−12%).
1+3 %
42 %32 %
2.52 → 2.60
X-4 %
36 %26 %
3.13 → 2.99
2+4 %
36 %26 %
2.98 → 3.10
Over 2,5+14 %
57 %47 %
1.71 → 1.96
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMonterrey 1Draw 1CD Guadalajara 2
Goals: 8–9 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CF Monterrey win 57% of their home matches all-time (68 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Monterrey
CD Guadalajara
Monterrey (23–17)
CD Guadalajara (20–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Monterrey
CD Guadalajara
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Monterrey
CD Guadalajara
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Monterrey | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 23 |
| xPoints | 19.1 | 16.8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Monterrey | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.72 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 408 | 503 |
| Passes against per match | 303 | 311 |
| Switches of play per match | 37.5 | 30.2 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Monterrey | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 8.1 |
| Corners against per match | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| Other | Monterrey | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Esteban Andrada (Monterrey) | Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 38 |
| Save % | 73% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Atlas – Club América22 October 2026
- Deportivo Toluca – Tijuana22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Puebla – Monterrey22 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Pachuca – Cruz Azul22 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Santos Laguna – Pumas UNAM22 October 2026 05:10 CEST
- Atlante – Atlético San Luis24 October 2026
- Necaxa – FC Juárez24 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- León – Deportivo Toluca25 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Atlas – Puebla25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Monterrey vs CD Guadalajara according to our model?
The model gives Monterrey a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monterrey 41%, draw 27%, CD Guadalajara 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Monterrey vs CD Guadalajara?
The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for Monterrey and 1.35 for CD Guadalajara, 2.79 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Monterrey or draw (1X) 68%, CD Guadalajara or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.