Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL Prediction: Away win 35% (25 Oct 2026)

Liga MX25 October 2026 04:00 CETEstadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City15°27 km/h

Läs på svenska

Pumas UNAMPossession control

Tigres UANLPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Tigres UANL (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.45 (+5 %)

1 · Pumas UNAM 34%X 31%35% Tigres UANL · 2

34%

31%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Pumas UNAM win 34%, draw 31%, Tigres UANL win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Pumas UNAM 1.50, Tigres UANL 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Pumas UNAM or draw 65%, Tigres UANL or draw 66%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The razor-thin probabilities lean towards Tigres UANL, with the model giving them a slight edge at 35% over Pumas UNAM's 34%. This sets the stage for a tightly contested match, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw at 12%. Pumas have the upper hand in the points table, holding a two-point lead. However, the xPoints suggest Tigres has been slightly more efficient, indicating potential for an upset.

Pumas' possession-heavy approach contrasts with Tigres' possession and high press, which could lead to a tactical standoff. In head-to-head play since 2023, Tigres holds a slight edge with two wins from four encounters, but this sample remains small and less significant than current form. The expected goals favor Pumas at 1.50 to Tigres' 1.26, but their defensive vulnerabilities are mirrored at 1.5 xGA per match for both sides. This symmetry suggests a balanced battle with limited clear chances.

The over 2.5 goals probability is slightly tipped at 52%, reflecting potential for goals but not an overwhelming likelihood. The draw carries value with LeoVegas offering odds of 3.35, surpassing the model's 31% probability. Bettors eyeing a tight contest should consider the draw as the sharpest angle, with the odds slightly favoring a stalemate.

Pumas UNAM

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #12xT #13xP/match #16Points #11

Key players

Robert MoralesFxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Rodrigo LopezRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17

Tigres UANL

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #12xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.53 · xT 0.19
Fernando GorriaranCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
Diego LainezRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL

Predicted score matrix

Tigres UANL →

Pumas UNAM →

0–06.7%

0–17.6%

0–25.0%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.2%

1–112.3%

1–27.5%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.2%

2–19.0%

2–25.6%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.6%

3–14.5%

3–22.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,50–1,26

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.01

Over 2,552%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Tigres UANL or draw (X2)57%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Tigres UANL or draw (X2)57%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Juan Francisco Brunetta to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Robert Osmar Morales Benítez to score23%
Adalberto Eliécer Carrasquilla Alcázar to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.45PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.35LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pumas UNAM	X	2 · Tigres UANL
Betsafe	2.55	EV+ 1% 3.30	2.55
LeoVegas	2.55	EV+ 2% 3.35	2.55
Nordicbet	2.55	EV+ 1% 3.30	2.55
Pinnacle	2.63	EV+ 5% 3.45	2.68

Odds updated 24 Oct, 10:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

39 %34 %

2.69 → 2.63

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.44 → 3.45

2+5 %

39 %34 %

2.56 → 2.68

Over 2,5+3 %

56 %51 %

1.79 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Pumas UNAM 1Draw 1Tigres UANL 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pumas UNAM

Tigres UANL

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pumas UNAM (19–22)

Tigres UANL (14–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pumas UNAM

Tigres UANL

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pumas UNAM

Tigres UANL

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pumas UNAM	Tigres UANL
Points	16	14
xPoints	15	16.4
xG per match	1	1.4
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.28

Playing style	Pumas UNAM	Tigres UANL
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.38	0.51
xT per match	0.93	0.95
xTA per match	1.1	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	23	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.69
Passes per match	328	346
Passes against per match	408	333
Switches of play per match	30.9	26.8
Long balls per match	36	31

Set pieces	Pumas UNAM	Tigres UANL
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.1
Corners per match	5.1	7.1
Corners against per match	5	4.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.48

Other	Pumas UNAM	Tigres UANL
Throw-in control	0.7	0.66

The goalkeepers	Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM)	Nahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL)
Saves	35	43
Save %	61%	73%
xG prevented	34%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pumas UNAM

Fixtures, form & tips

Tigres UANL

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL according to our model?

The model gives Tigres UANL a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pumas UNAM 34%, draw 31%, Tigres UANL 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL?

The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Pumas UNAM and 1.26 for Tigres UANL, 2.76 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Pumas UNAM or draw (1X) 65%, Tigres UANL or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.