Ekstraklasa16°9,3 mm21 km/h

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    Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia BiałystokPossession control
    vs
    Legia WarszawaLegia WarszawaBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Jagiellonia Białystok (37%)Soft draw

    Jagiellonia Białystok vs Legia Warszawa · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Jagiellonia Białystok 37%X 26%36% Legia Warszawa · 2

    Analysis: Jagiellonia Białystok – Legia Warszawa

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Legia since 2023 shows the home side with a modest upper hand: one win and three draws in four matches. A small sample, true, but it hints at Jagiellonia's capacity to hold their own against Legia. Yet, the visitors are riding a 12-match unbeaten streak in the league, showcasing remarkable consistency. This clash offers tension, as both sides have distinct strengths and current forms collide.

    Legia's balanced and physical style has served them well, evidenced by their continuous scoring streak, now at 12 matches. In contrast, Jagiellonia adopts a possession-centric approach, which may test Legia's defensive resolve. Numbers suggest Jagiellonia can push forward, generating an expected 1.43 goals to Legia's slightly higher 1.55. Still, Legia edges the xG and xGA metrics, marking them as the stronger side overall.

    The model leans slightly towards Jagiellonia, pegging them at a 37% win probability. This is reflected in the odds market, where value can be found backing the hosts at 2.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, presenting a 7% edge. Despite Legia's superior points and form, the odds reveal a potential upset opportunity, especially given Jagiellonia's ability to resist and counter a team of Legia's caliber.

    An over 2.5 goals expectation at 57% and a both teams to score probability at 60% suggest action in the attacking thirds, notwithstanding the dampening effects of expected rain. The market underestimates Jagiellonia's potential here — favoring them outright at 2.85 could prove wise. Given the finest margins, a 1-1 scoreline seems plausible, but if Jagiellonia seizes their chance, a 2-1 upset isn't off the table.

    Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia Białystok
    Form LWLWL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #11xP/match #15Points #8
    Key players
    • Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.15 · xT 0.23
    • Kajetan SzmytLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
    • Nik PrelecFxG 0.52 · xT 0.03
    Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
    Form WDDWD
    League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #12xP/match #5Points #2
    Key players
    • Mileta RajovicFxG 0.46 · xT -0.02
    • Łukasz ZjawińskiFxG 0.43 · xT 0.03
    • Damian Dawid SzymańskiCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Jagiellonia Białystok – Legia Warszawa

    Predicted score matrix

    Legia Warszawa →
    Jagiellonia Białystok →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.4%
    0–17.5%
    0–26.1%
    0–33.1%
    0–4+1.7%
    1
    1–07.0%
    1–111.6%
    1–28.7%
    1–34.5%
    1–4+2.5%
    2
    2–05.2%
    2–18.1%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.8%
    3
    3–02.5%
    3–13.8%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,43–1,55
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.11
    Over 2,557%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (1X)60%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (1X)60%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Nik Prelec to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Nik Prelec to score23%
    • Kamil Dawid Piątkowski to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Jagiellonia Białystok37% probability@2.79PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Jagiellonia Białystok37% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Jagiellonia Białystok37% probability@2.75BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jagiellonia BiałystokX2 · Legia Warszawa
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    2.75    		3.352.32
    Betsson
    EV+ 3%
    2.75    		3.352.32
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    2.75    		3.352.32
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    2.79    		3.442.51

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:58

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    36 %31 %

    2.66 → 2.79

    X+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.37 → 3.44

    20 %
    42 %37 %

    2.52 → 2.51

    Over 2,5+2 %
    57 %52 %

    1.72 → 1.75

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Jagiellonia Białystok 1Draw 3Legia Warszawa 0
    Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
    • Legia Warszawa have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jagiellonia Białystok
    Legia Warszawa
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jagiellonia Białystok (11–10)
    Legia Warszawa (16–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jagiellonia Białystok
    Norbert Wojtuszek: 226 passningar, xT 0.18WojtuszekBernardo Vital: 216 passningar, xT 0.31VitalTaras Romanczuk: 187 passningar, xT 0.12RomanczukGuilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia: 181 passningar, xT 0.75MontóiaApostolos Konstantopoulos: 159 passningar, xT 0.35KonstantopoulosSlawomir Abramowicz: 114 passningar, xT -0.09AbramowiczAnders Ferslev Klynge: 98 passningar, xT 0.3KlyngeYuki Kobayashi: 97 passningar, xT 0.06KobayashiCezary Polak: 92 passningar, xT 0.1PolakRodrigo Fernandes da Conceição: 75 passningar, xT 0.82ConceiçãoEryk Kozłowski: 73 passningar, xT 0.38Kozłowski
    Legia Warszawa
    Rafal Augustyniak: 270 passningar, xT 0.11AugustyniakKamil Dawid Piątkowski: 243 passningar, xT 0.98PiątkowskiBartosz Kapustka: 203 passningar, xT 0.18KapustkaRobert Edward JR. Deziel Junior: 185 passningar, xT 0.14JuniorHenrique Miguel Sousa Arreiol: 128 passningar, xT 0.12ArreiolRúben Gonçalo Silva Nascimento Vinagre: 126 passningar, xT 0.65VinagreOttó Hindrich: 119 passningar, xT 0.13HindrichPawel Wszolek: 108 passningar, xT 0.44WszolekWojciech Urbanski: 91 passningar, xT 0.28UrbanskiMichal Ševčík: 81 passningar, xT 0.61ŠevčíkZoran Arsenic: 46 passningar, xT 0.01Arsenic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jagiellonia Białystok
    Norbert Wojtuszek: 226 passningar, xT 0.18WojtuszekBernardo Vital: 216 passningar, xT 0.31VitalTaras Romanczuk: 187 passningar, xT 0.12RomanczukGuilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia: 181 passningar, xT 0.75MontóiaApostolos Konstantopoulos: 159 passningar, xT 0.35KonstantopoulosSlawomir Abramowicz: 114 passningar, xT -0.09AbramowiczAnders Ferslev Klynge: 98 passningar, xT 0.3KlyngeYuki Kobayashi: 97 passningar, xT 0.06KobayashiCezary Polak: 92 passningar, xT 0.1PolakRodrigo Fernandes da Conceição: 75 passningar, xT 0.82ConceiçãoEryk Kozłowski: 73 passningar, xT 0.38Kozłowski
    Legia Warszawa
    Rafal Augustyniak: 270 passningar, xT 0.11AugustyniakKamil Dawid Piątkowski: 243 passningar, xT 0.98PiątkowskiBartosz Kapustka: 203 passningar, xT 0.18KapustkaRobert Edward JR. Deziel Junior: 185 passningar, xT 0.14JuniorHenrique Miguel Sousa Arreiol: 128 passningar, xT 0.12ArreiolRúben Gonçalo Silva Nascimento Vinagre: 126 passningar, xT 0.65VinagreOttó Hindrich: 119 passningar, xT 0.13HindrichPawel Wszolek: 108 passningar, xT 0.44WszolekWojciech Urbanski: 91 passningar, xT 0.28UrbanskiMichal Ševčík: 81 passningar, xT 0.61ŠevčíkZoran Arsenic: 46 passningar, xT 0.01Arsenic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJagiellonia BiałystokLegia Warszawa
    Points1216
    xPoints8.312.7
    xG per match1.51.9
    xGA per match1.61.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.32
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.40.18
    Playing styleJagiellonia BiałystokLegia Warszawa
    Build-up efficiency0.290.31
    Field tilt0.530.57
    xT per match1.11.1
    xTA per match1.10.87
    Won balls, offensive half2132
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.320.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.26
    Entries into the box per match1215
    Entries into the box against1411
    Pass completion %0.790.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.72
    Passes per match399357
    Passes against per match303330
    Switches of play per match22.121.9
    Long balls per match2927
    Set piecesJagiellonia BiałystokLegia Warszawa
    xG from free kicks0.010.13
    Corners per match3.64.6
    Corners against per match5.93.8
    xG per corner0.040.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.280.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.65
    OtherJagiellonia BiałystokLegia Warszawa
    Throw-in control0.740.73
    The goalkeepersSlawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok)Ottó Hindrich (Legia Warszawa)
    Saves2223
    Save %69%79%
    xG prevented45%57%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jagiellonia Białystok
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Legia Warszawa
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jagiellonia Białystok vs Legia Warszawa according to our model?

    The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jagiellonia Białystok 37%, draw 26%, Legia Warszawa 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Motor LublinMotor Lublin
    1–2
    Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia Białystok
    1 30%X 24%2 46%
    The model called the outcome
    Wisła PłockWisła Płock
    0–0
    Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź
    1 35%X 30%2 35%
    The model missed the outcome
    Korona KielceKorona Kielce
    0–2
    Górnik ZabrzeGórnik Zabrze
    1 34%X 30%2 36%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.