Ekstraklasa17°2,1 mm19 km/h

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    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie LubinLow block & direct
    vs
    Wisła PłockWisła PłockCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Zagłębie Lubin (48%)

    Zagłębie Lubin vs Wisła Płock · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Zagłębie Lubin 48%X 28%24% Wisła Płock · 2

    Analysis: Zagłębie Lubin – Wisła Płock

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A six-match unbeaten run sets the tone for Zagłębie Lubin as they face Wisła Płock, with the hosts riding a robust wave of defensive stability. The numbers tilt decisively towards Lubin, as they enjoy a 48% probability of clinching a win, against 24% for the visitors. With Lubin's low defence and direct playing style against Płock's counter-attack and cross tactics, we might anticipate a tightly contested match.

    The head-to-head record, though a small sample, shows the teams sharing one win apiece. Yet, the recent form cannot be ignored. Lubin's unbeaten streak and their superior points tally of 15 compared to Płock's 8 further underscore their current dominance. Additionally, the expected goals show Lubin slightly ahead with 1.45 against Płock's 1.01, suggesting more firepower in the Lubin ranks.

    Rain is expected, which could dampen attacking flair and discourage ambitious offensive play, further supporting a lower-scoring affair. The model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, with a 1-0 victory for Lubin a close second. With over 2.5 goals sitting at just 45% and both teams to score at 49%, a restrained match seems probable.

    While Wisła Płock boasts a slight edge in xG per match at 1.6 compared to Lubin's 1.4, they also concede more, with an xGA of 1.7. This vulnerability in defence gives Zagłębie Lubin the potential to exploit those gaps, especially given their recent defensive resilience.

    For value seekers, Lubin presents an enticing proposition at odds of 2.32 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — each offering a 12% edge according to the model's assessment. As always, no guarantees, but backing the home side at these odds aligns with both form and statistical insight.

    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie Lubin
    Form DDDWW
    League ranking xG #16xGA #5xT #15xP/match #6Points #4
    Key players
    • Marcel RegulaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.10
    • Michalis KosidisLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.04
    • Mateusz GrzybekRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
    Wisła PłockWisła Płock
    Form LLLDW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #13xP/match #9Points #13
    Key players
    • Patryk KunLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.18
    • Marcus Haglind SangreCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
    • Jorge JimenezFxG 0.09 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: Zagłębie Lubin – Wisła Płock

    Predicted score matrix

    Wisła Płock →
    Zagłębie Lubin →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.9%
    0–18.3%
    0–24.3%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–012.0%
    1–112.9%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.0%
    2–19.1%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,45–1,01
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @1.95EV+1%
    Over 2,545%
    @2.10

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Zagłębie Lubin to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Zagłębie Lubin to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Marcel Wojciech Reguła to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Marcel Wojciech Reguła to score28%
    • Gustav Marcus Haglind-Sangre to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Zagłębie Lubin48% probability@2.43PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 1 · Zagłębie Lubin48% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Zagłębie Lubin48% probability@2.32BetssonEV+12%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Zagłębie LubinX2 · Wisła Płock
    Bet365
    EV+ 8%
    2.25    		3.302.88
    Betsafe
    EV+ 12%
    2.32    		3.252.80
    Betsson
    EV+ 12%
    2.32    		3.252.80
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 12%
    2.32    		3.252.80
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 6%
    2.20    		3.252.88
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 17%
    2.43    		3.462.88

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 14:21

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    41 %36 %

    2.45 → 2.43

    X+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.38 → 3.46

    2+2 %
    36 %31 %

    2.82 → 2.88

    Over 2,5-1 %
    53 %48 %

    1.90 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Zagłębie Lubin 1Draw 0Wisła Płock 1
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Zaglebie Lubin are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Wisła Płock
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Zagłębie Lubin (11–8)
    Wisła Płock (7–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Aleks Lawniczak: 159 passningar, xT 0.4LawniczakZlatan Alomerović: 140 passningar, xT 0.06AlomerovićRoman Yakuba: 119 passningar, xT 1.16YakubaFilip Kocaba: 119 passningar, xT 0.23KocabaDamian Michalski: 101 passningar, xT 0.03MichalskiDamian Dabrowski: 88 passningar, xT 0.15DabrowskiMarcel Regula: 73 passningar, xT 0.47RegulaJakub Kolan: 69 passningar, xT 0.8KolanDavid Čolina: 63 passningar, xT 0.17ČolinaMateusz Grzybek: 60 passningar, xT 0.26GrzybekSebastian Kerk: 48 passningar, xT 0.2Kerk
    Wisła Płock
    Adam Radwanski: 245 passningar, xT 0.56RadwanskiMarcin Kaminski: 243 passningar, xT 0.2KaminskiMarcus Haglind Sangre: 224 passningar, xT 0.29SangreAfonso Rodrigues e Silva: 204 passningar, xT 0.63SilvaŽan Rogelj: 183 passningar, xT 0.47RogeljRafal Leszczynski: 140 passningar, xT 0.02LeszczynskiDion Gallapeni: 136 passningar, xT 1.11GallapeniPatryk Kun: 127 passningar, xT 1.01KunSidnei Wilson Vieira David Tavares: 71 passningar, xT 0.04TavaresKrystian Pomorski: 65 passningar, xT 0.06PomorskiJorge Jimenez: 51 passningar, xT 0.38Jimenez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Aleks Lawniczak: 159 passningar, xT 0.4LawniczakZlatan Alomerović: 140 passningar, xT 0.06AlomerovićRoman Yakuba: 119 passningar, xT 1.16YakubaFilip Kocaba: 119 passningar, xT 0.23KocabaDamian Michalski: 101 passningar, xT 0.03MichalskiDamian Dabrowski: 88 passningar, xT 0.15DabrowskiMarcel Regula: 73 passningar, xT 0.47RegulaJakub Kolan: 69 passningar, xT 0.8KolanDavid Čolina: 63 passningar, xT 0.17ČolinaMateusz Grzybek: 60 passningar, xT 0.26GrzybekSebastian Kerk: 48 passningar, xT 0.2Kerk
    Wisła Płock
    Adam Radwanski: 245 passningar, xT 0.56RadwanskiMarcin Kaminski: 243 passningar, xT 0.2KaminskiMarcus Haglind Sangre: 224 passningar, xT 0.29SangreAfonso Rodrigues e Silva: 204 passningar, xT 0.63SilvaŽan Rogelj: 183 passningar, xT 0.47RogeljRafal Leszczynski: 140 passningar, xT 0.02LeszczynskiDion Gallapeni: 136 passningar, xT 1.11GallapeniPatryk Kun: 127 passningar, xT 1.01KunSidnei Wilson Vieira David Tavares: 71 passningar, xT 0.04TavaresKrystian Pomorski: 65 passningar, xT 0.06PomorskiJorge Jimenez: 51 passningar, xT 0.38Jimenez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    Points158
    xPoints12.69.4
    xG per match1.41.6
    xGA per match1.31.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.3
    Playing styleZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    Build-up efficiency0.280.33
    Field tilt0.30.44
    xT per match0.931
    xTA per match0.931.1
    Won balls, offensive half2630
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.290.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.26
    Entries into the box per match1316
    Entries into the box against1612
    Pass completion %0.70.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.69
    Passes per match244364
    Passes against per match362352
    Switches of play per match24.928
    Long balls per match3428
    Set piecesZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    xG from free kicks0.040.19
    Corners per match3.76.8
    Corners against per match6.43.8
    xG per corner0.070.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.49
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.58
    OtherZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    Throw-in control0.840.83
    The goalkeepersZlatan Alomerović (Zagłębie Lubin)Rafal Leszczynski (Wisła Płock)
    Saves2015
    Save %80%56%
    xG prevented31%40%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Wisła Płock
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Zagłębie Lubin vs Wisła Płock according to our model?

    The model gives Zagłębie Lubin a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zagłębie Lubin 48%, draw 28%, Wisła Płock 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.