Piast Gliwice vs Pogoń Szczecin: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa20 September 202617°4,4 mm16 km/h

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Piast GliwiceBalanced & physical

Pogoń SzczecinLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Piast Gliwice (41%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 5.50 (+23 %)

1 · Piast Gliwice 41%X 28%31% Pogoń Szczecin · 2

41%

28%

31%

Analysis: Piast Gliwice – Pogoń Szczecin

Anna Karlsson · 18 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The standout figure in this matchup between Piast Gliwice and Pogoń Szczecin is the 63% probability of over 2.5 goals. Given their current form—Piast on a three-game win streak and Pogoń unbeaten in six—the balance tilts towards a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair. The expected goals mirror this, with Piast at 1.74 and Pogoń at 1.48, suggesting a tight contest possibly swayed by individual moments rather than consistent dominance.

While Piast has been the more successful side in recent games, Szczecin's unbeaten run and greater xG per match (1.8 vs. 1.3) indicate their attacking threat. The small head-to-head sample, where Pogoń leads with three wins to one, holds less weight than current dynamics. Piast's physical style might be tested by Pogoń's direct approach, particularly if the rain affects play. The most likely outcomes—a 1-1 draw or a narrow 2-1 victory for Piast—underscore the anticipated closeness.

Bettors seeking value might consider the over 3.5 goals market, with odds at 2.58 and a 4% edge according to the model, available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. In a clash where both sides are likely to find the net, this market presents the sharpest angle.

Piast Gliwice

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #17xP/match #16Points #6

Key players

Hugo Claudio Vallejo AvilésLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.03
Igor DrapinskiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Leandro SancaLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.09

Pogoń Szczecin

Form WDDDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #14xP/match #4Points #7

Key players

Darko ChurlinovFxG 0.60 · xT 0.15
Paul MukairuFxG 0.39 · xT 0.03
Fredrik UlvestadCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Piast Gliwice – Pogoń Szczecin

Predicted score matrix

Pogoń Szczecin →

Piast Gliwice →

0–04.3%

0–15.6%

0–24.4%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.1%

1–06.6%

1–110.6%

1–27.6%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.0%

2–18.9%

2–26.6%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.7%

3–03.5%

3–15.2%

3–23.9%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–02.3%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,74–1,48

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,537%

@2.22

Over 2,563%

@1.68EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Piast Gliwice or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Piast Gliwice or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca to score29%
Oskar Leśniak to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.522% probability@5.50Paddy PowerEV+23%reference odds
Over 3.540% probability@2.75Paddy PowerEV+11%reference odds
Over 2.563% probability@1.68PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Piast Gliwice	X	2 · Pogoń Szczecin
Betsafe	2.32	3.35	2.75
Betsson	2.32	3.35	2.75
Nordicbet	2.32	3.35	2.75
Paddy Power	2.20	3.50	2.70
Pinnacle	2.33	EV+ 2% 3.59	2.94

Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:58

Odds movement

1-5 %

42 %37 %

2.46 → 2.33

X+2 %

29 %24 %

3.52 → 3.59

2+8 %

36 %31 %

2.71 → 2.94

Over 2,50 %

59 %54 %

1.68 → 1.68

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Piast Gliwice 1Draw 0Pogoń Szczecin 3

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

Key facts

Piast Gliwice come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Piast Gliwice

Pogoń Szczecin

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Piast Gliwice (15–13)

Pogoń Szczecin (10–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Piast Gliwice

Pogoń Szczecin

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Piast Gliwice

Pogoń Szczecin

The teams in numbers

Performance	Piast Gliwice	Pogoń Szczecin
Points	13	12
xPoints	9	11.9
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	1.8	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.15

Playing style	Piast Gliwice	Pogoń Szczecin
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.41
xT per match	0.82	1
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.21
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	14	15
Pass completion %	0.78	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.72
Passes per match	396	300
Passes against per match	302	418
Switches of play per match	23	26.6
Long balls per match	24	35

Set pieces	Piast Gliwice	Pogoń Szczecin
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.15
Corners per match	5.1	3.7
Corners against per match	7.1	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.57

Other	Piast Gliwice	Pogoń Szczecin
Throw-in control	0.76	0.72

The goalkeepers	Domen Gril (Piast Gliwice)	Valentin Cojocaru (Pogoń Szczecin)
Saves	31	30
Save %	71%	88%
xG prevented	60%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Piast Gliwice

Fixtures, form & tips

Pogoń Szczecin

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Piast Gliwice vs Pogoń Szczecin according to our model?

The model gives Piast Gliwice a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Piast Gliwice 41%, draw 28%, Pogoń Szczecin 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.