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    Widzew ŁódźWidzew ŁódźPossession & high press
    2–2
    Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta KrakówPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Widzew Łódź (45%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 5.20 (+14 %)

    Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Widzew Łódź 45%X 26%29% Wieczysta Kraków · 2

    Analysis: Widzew Łódź – Wieczysta Kraków

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    A clash of similar styles sets the stage for Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków. Both teams embrace possession and high press, suggesting a battle of attrition in midfield. Widzew holds a slight edge in current form, with more points and a better expected goals (xG) tally. Yet, the most intriguing prospect is the high probability of goals — over 2.5 has a 62% chance, and both teams to score is at 64%.

    Widzew's advantage stems from their ability to convert possession into tangible opportunities, evident in their xG of 1.6 per match compared to Kraków's 1.5. Furthermore, the hosts have been more resilient defensively, conceding fewer expected goals against (xGA 1.4) than their visitors' 1.9. This defensive solidity might prove crucial against a Wieczysta side that struggles to keep opponents at bay.

    The head-to-head record is too scant to weigh heavily, so the focus remains on recent performances and expected outcomes. With both sides inclined to press aggressively, transitions will be key. Widzew's slightly superior xPoints (11.5 vs. 7.5) suggest they manage these phases better, making them deserved favorites.

    Despite Widzew's home advantage, the model acknowledges a 29% chance for a Wieczysta upset. The market currently offers odds of 3.45 for an away win with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, which represents a small but interesting edge of 1% value against the model's evaluation.

    In essence, expect an open game with chances on both ends. While Widzew are likely to edge it, perhaps 2-1, the model’s slight lean towards value on Wieczysta's odds could tempt those willing to take a calculated risk.

    Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź
    Form LDLDD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #6xP/match #7Points #11
    Key players
    • Juljan ShehuCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
    • Francisco Javier Álvarez RodríguezCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
    • Sebastian BergierFxG 0.53 · xT 0.03
    Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków
    Form WLLDL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #7xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Tobias ChristensenFxG 0.26 · xT 0.16
    • Karol FilaRWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.21
    • Lisandro Pedro Varela SemedoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45% · Draw 26% · Wieczysta Kraków 29%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - KS Wieczysta KrakowBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,10fair 8,74+4 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Widzew LodzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,72fair 6,28-25 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Widzew Łódź – Wieczysta Kraków

    Predicted score matrix

    Wieczysta Kraków →
    Widzew Łódź →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.4%
    0–15.7%
    0–24.4%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–110.7%
    1–27.6%
    1–33.7%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.1%
    2–19.0%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–03.5%
    3–15.2%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–02.3%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–22.4%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,73–1,47
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @2.30
    Over 2,562%
    @1.65EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Widzew Łódź to win45%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Widzew Łódź to win45%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Karol Grzegorz Świderski to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Karol Grzegorz Świderski to score25%
    • Giannis Papanikolaou to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.522% probability@5.20Paddy PowerEV+14%reference odds
    • Over 3.540% probability@2.75Paddy PowerEV+9%reference odds
    • X · Draw26% probability@4.19PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Widzew ŁódźX2 · Wieczysta Kraków
    Betsafe1.853.65
    EV+ 3%
    3.55
    Betsson1.853.65
    EV+ 3%
    3.55
    Nordicbet1.853.65
    EV+ 3%
    3.55
    Paddy Power1.803.60
    EV+ 5%
    3.60
    Pinnacle1.91
    EV+ 8%
    4.19
    EV+ 3%
    3.53

    Odds updated 18 Sept, 11:37

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    51 %46 %

    2.00 → 1.91

    X+4 %
    26 %21 %

    4.03 → 4.19

    2+9 %
    31 %26 %

    3.25 → 3.53

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Widzew Łódź
    Wieczysta Kraków
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Widzew Łódź (11–11)
    Wieczysta Kraków (9–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Widzew Łódź
    Steve Kapuadi: 218 passningar, xT 0.32KapuadiPrzemysław Wiśniewski: 172 passningar, xT 0.65WiśniewskiMario García Alvear: 165 passningar, xT 0.82AlvearMarcel Krajewski: 131 passningar, xT 0.23KrajewskiFrancisco Javier Álvarez Rodríguez: 119 passningar, xT 0.01RodríguezBartłomiej Drągowski: 116 passningar, xT 0.21DrągowskiEmil Nestved Kornvig: 88 passningar, xT 0.33KornvigJuljan Shehu: 78 passningar, xT 0.28ShehuGiannis Papanikolaou: 76 passningar, xT -0.06PapanikolaouMateusz Żyro: 60 passningar, xT 0.08ŻyroStipe Biuk: 54 passningar, xT 0.65Biuk
    Wieczysta Kraków
    Mikkel Maigaard: 323 passningar, xT 0.4MaigaardMateusz Wieteska: 281 passningar, xT 0.41WieteskaTobias Christensen: 246 passningar, xT 0.57ChristensenAntonio Milic: 209 passningar, xT 0.18MilicLucas Domingues Piazón: 188 passningar, xT 0.11PiazónKarol Fila: 176 passningar, xT 0.53FilaKamil Pestka: 104 passningar, xT 0.48PestkaPetar Pušić: 103 passningar, xT 0.44PušićMatus Vojtko: 84 passningar, xT 0.2VojtkoKamil Dankowski: 83 passningar, xT 0.12DankowskiLisandro Pedro Varela Semedo: 82 passningar, xT 0.4Semedo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Widzew Łódź
    Steve Kapuadi: 218 passningar, xT 0.32KapuadiPrzemysław Wiśniewski: 172 passningar, xT 0.65WiśniewskiMario García Alvear: 165 passningar, xT 0.82AlvearMarcel Krajewski: 131 passningar, xT 0.23KrajewskiFrancisco Javier Álvarez Rodríguez: 119 passningar, xT 0.01RodríguezBartłomiej Drągowski: 116 passningar, xT 0.21DrągowskiEmil Nestved Kornvig: 88 passningar, xT 0.33KornvigJuljan Shehu: 78 passningar, xT 0.28ShehuGiannis Papanikolaou: 76 passningar, xT -0.06PapanikolaouMateusz Żyro: 60 passningar, xT 0.08ŻyroStipe Biuk: 54 passningar, xT 0.65Biuk
    Wieczysta Kraków
    Mikkel Maigaard: 323 passningar, xT 0.4MaigaardMateusz Wieteska: 281 passningar, xT 0.41WieteskaTobias Christensen: 246 passningar, xT 0.57ChristensenAntonio Milic: 209 passningar, xT 0.18MilicLucas Domingues Piazón: 188 passningar, xT 0.11PiazónKarol Fila: 176 passningar, xT 0.53FilaKamil Pestka: 104 passningar, xT 0.48PestkaPetar Pušić: 103 passningar, xT 0.44PušićMatus Vojtko: 84 passningar, xT 0.2VojtkoKamil Dankowski: 83 passningar, xT 0.12DankowskiLisandro Pedro Varela Semedo: 82 passningar, xT 0.4Semedo

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWidzew ŁódźWieczysta Kraków
    Points84
    xPoints11.57.5
    xG per match1.61.5
    xGA per match1.41.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.390.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.430.57
    Playing styleWidzew ŁódźWieczysta Kraków
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.430.66
    xT per match1.21.2
    xTA per match1.11.2
    Won balls, offensive half2824
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.320.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.27
    Entries into the box per match1117
    Entries into the box against1516
    Pass completion %0.740.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.73
    Passes per match304445
    Passes against per match334316
    Switches of play per match26.630.1
    Long balls per match3434
    Set piecesWidzew ŁódźWieczysta Kraków
    xG from free kicks0.150.01
    Corners per match5.55
    Corners against per match65.6
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.30.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.46
    OtherWidzew ŁódźWieczysta Kraków
    Throw-in control0.720.78
    The goalkeepersBartłomiej Drągowski (Widzew Łódź)Antoni Mikulko (Wieczysta Kraków)
    Saves2714
    Save %75%58%
    xG prevented83%56%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Widzew Łódź
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Wieczysta Kraków
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków according to our model?

    The model gives Widzew Łódź a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Widzew Łódź 45%, draw 26%, Wieczysta Kraków 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.