Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw: Prediction & Odds (18 Sept 2026)

Ekstraklasa18 September 2026

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Wisla KrakowPossession control

2–1

Slask WroclawLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Wisla Krakow (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Slask Wroclaw @ 5.11 (+66 %)

1 · Wisla Krakow 42%X 25%33% Slask Wroclaw · 2

42%

25%

33%

Analysis: Wisla Krakow – Slask Wroclaw

Erik Lindberg · 18 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Wisla Krakow have quietly built a reliable scoring streak, finding the back of the net in eight consecutive league matches. Their ability to maintain possession and control the tempo stands in stark contrast to Slask Wroclaw's preference for a low defensive block paired with direct counterattacks. This stylistic clash sets the stage for an intriguing match where Krakow are modest favorites, with a model probability of 42% compared to Wroclaw's 33%.

Krakow's edge is underscored by their superior xG and xGA metrics. Producing 1.9 expected goals per match and conceding just 1.2, they have consistently outperformed Slask, who post figures of 1.5 xG and 1.5 xGA. With a points tally of 14 to Slask's 6, Krakow appear to have the upper hand.

Despite their underdog status, the visitors offer a tantalizing opportunity for value seekers. With odds of 4.4 at Betsafe and Nordicbet and 4.3 at Betsson, a bet on Slask Wroclaw presents a notable edge, calculated at 43% for the former and 40% for the latter. While not a guaranteed outcome, the overlay on the odds is significant enough to warrant consideration for those willing to play the percentages.

Given the expected goals figures, a scoring draw like 1-1 remains the most probable outcome at 10%, closely followed by a 2-1 victory for Wisla Krakow at 9%. With a 64% probability for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, any defensive lapses could tip the balance in favor of a more open game than Krakow's possession style might suggest.

In balancing the model's lean towards Krakow with the high-risk, high-reward odds on Wroclaw, the sharpest angle lies in leveraging the value on offer from a potentially underestimated away win.

Wisla Krakow

Form LDWDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #10xP/match #3Points #5

Key players

Jordi Sánchez RibasFxG 0.61 · xT 0.04
Julian LelieveldRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
Kacper DudaCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.05

Slask Wroclaw

Form LDDLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #8xT #3xP/match #10Points #15

Key players

Piotr Samiec-TalarRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.27
Luka MarjanacFxG 0.36 · xT 0.20
Przemyslaw BanaszakFxG 0.32 · xT 0.13

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Wisla Krakow 42% · Draw 25% · Slask Wroclaw 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Slask WroclawBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,76fair 7,79+90 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Wisla KrakowBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,50fair 6,31-29 %

Miss

Match prediction: Wisla Krakow – Slask Wroclaw

Predicted score matrix

Slask Wroclaw →

Wisla Krakow →

0–04.1%

0–15.6%

0–24.5%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.2%

1–110.4%

1–27.8%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.6%

2–18.7%

2–26.8%

2–33.5%

2–4+1.9%

3–03.2%

3–15.0%

3–23.9%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.1%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,73–1,55

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@2.25

Over 2,564%

@1.60EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wisla Krakow or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wisla Krakow or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Frederico Fonseca Pires de Almeida Duarte to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Frederico Fonseca Pires de Almeida Duarte to score18%
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Slask Wroclaw33% probability@5.11PinnacleEV+66%reference odds
2 · Slask Wroclaw33% probability@4.80BetsafeEV+56%reference odds
2 · Slask Wroclaw33% probability@4.80BetssonEV+56%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wisla Krakow	X	2 · Slask Wroclaw
Betsafe	1.58	3.95	EV+ 56% 4.80
Betsson	1.58	3.95	EV+ 56% 4.80
Nordicbet	1.58	3.95	EV+ 56% 4.80
Paddy Power	1.67	3.80	EV+ 30% 4.00
Pinnacle	1.60	EV+ 9% 4.37	EV+ 66% 5.11

Odds updated 18 Sept, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Wisla Krakow win since 12 September — the odds have shortened from 1.69 to 1.60 (−5%).

1-5 %

60 %55 %

1.69 → 1.60

X+7 %

25 %20 %

4.08 → 4.37

2+22 %

23 %18 %

4.20 → 5.11

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Wisla Krakow have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wisla Krakow

Slask Wroclaw

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wisla Krakow (15–11)

Slask Wroclaw (10–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wisla Krakow

Slask Wroclaw

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wisla Krakow

Slask Wroclaw

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wisla Krakow	Slask Wroclaw
Points	14	6
xPoints	13.6	10.5
xG per match	1.9	1.5
xGA per match	1.2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.25

Playing style	Wisla Krakow	Slask Wroclaw
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.56	0.56
xT per match	1.1	1.3
xTA per match	0.9	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	25	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.23
Entries into the box per match	13	17
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.75	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.71
Passes per match	353	331
Passes against per match	328	348
Switches of play per match	21.9	22.4
Long balls per match	25	30

Set pieces	Wisla Krakow	Slask Wroclaw
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	6.1	4.4
Corners against per match	4.8	5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.63

Other	Wisla Krakow	Slask Wroclaw
Throw-in control	0.76	0.72

The goalkeepers	Marcel Łubik (Wisla Krakow)	Karol Stanisław Niemczycki (Slask Wroclaw)
Saves	32	25
Save %	74%	69%
xG prevented	52%	66%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wisla Krakow

Fixtures, form & tips

Slask Wroclaw

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw according to our model?

The model gives Wisla Krakow a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisla Krakow 42%, draw 25%, Slask Wroclaw 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.