01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Estoril Praia or draw (X2)65%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Primeira LigaEstádio do Fontelo, Viseu17°11 km/h
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Academico ViseuCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Estoril PraiaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Estoril Praia (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+13 %)
Academico Viseu vs Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga
1 · Academico Viseu 31%X 33%36% Estoril Praia · 2
31%
33%
36%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Academico Viseu – Estoril Praia
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The crunch in this matchup lies in the razor-thin model probabilities: Estoril Praia's 36% chance narrowly edges out Academico Viseu's 31%, with a draw perched at 33%. Despite the hosts' impressive three-game winning streak, the balance of expected goals tilts slightly in favour of the visitors, suggesting an intriguing contest.
Academico Viseu's recent form shows a team that capitalizes on counter-attacks, while Estoril Praia relies on possession and a high press. This contrasting style might suppress goals, but with the expected goals figures — 1.24 for Viseu and 1.31 for Estoril — the scales lean marginally towards an under 2.5 goals outcome, though only by a whisper (47% suggests otherwise). The narrow expected goal difference is mirrored in the most likely scoreline predictions: 1-1 at 13% leads, followed by 0-1 at 10%, which underlines the visitors' slight upper hand.
In betting terms, there's value to be seized. LeoVegas offers 3.4 on the draw, which the model rates at 33%, creating a tempting 13% edge. For those looking at Estoril Praia's marginal edge, the 3.0 odds on an away win presents a 7% value opportunity. These are the sharp angles in a match where every percentage point counts.
Academico ViseuForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #16xP/match #15Points #7
Key players
- André Clóvis Silva FilhoFxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
- João Guilherme de Sousa CrispimRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.04
- Cihan KahramanLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
Estoril PraiaForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #11xP/match #14Points #18
Key players
- Yanis Redha BegraouiFxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
- Andre LacximicantLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
- Jordan HolsgroveCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Academico Viseu – Estoril Praia
Predicted score matrix
Estoril Praia →
Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–19.8%
0–26.7%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–09.3%
1–113.0%
1–28.3%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.0%
2–17.9%
2–25.2%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.3%
3–22.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,24–1,31
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.88
Over 2,547%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Estoril Praia or draw (X2)65%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Fabrício Garcia Andrade to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- João Guilherme de Sousa Crispim to score19%
- Milan Robin to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw33% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- X · Draw33% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
- X · Draw33% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Academico Viseu | X | 2 · Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.22 | EV+ 13% 3.40 | EV+ 5% 2.95 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | EV+ 13% 3.40 | EV+ 7% 3.00 |
| Nordicbet | 2.22 | EV+ 13% 3.40 | EV+ 5% 2.95 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 21:36
Odds movement
10 %
43 %38 %
2.30 → 2.30
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.40 → 3.40
20 %
34 %29 %
3.00 → 3.00
Over 2,5+2 %
53 %48 %
1.85 → 1.88
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Academico Viseu come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Academico Viseu
Estoril Praia
Academico Viseu (9–9)
Estoril Praia (3–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Academico Viseu
Estoril Praia
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Academico Viseu
Estoril Praia
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Academico Viseu | Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 2 |
| xPoints | 7.3 | 7.4 |
| xG per match | 1 | 0.83 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Academico Viseu | Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.59 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 319 | 328 |
| Passes against per match | 369 | 417 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.1 | 25.6 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Academico Viseu | Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 2.7 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| Other | Academico Viseu | Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Ewerton Ferreira da Silva (Academico Viseu) | Joel Robles (Estoril Praia) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 15 |
| Save % | 75% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Academico Viseu vs Estoril Praia according to our model?
The model gives Estoril Praia a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Academico Viseu 31%, draw 33%, Estoril Praia 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.