Famalicão vs Alverca Prediction: Home win 53% (11 Oct 2026)

Primeira Liga11 October 2026Estádio Municipal de Famalicão, Famalicão18°9 km/h

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FamalicãoPossession & high press

AlvercaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Famalicão (53%)

1 · Famalicão 53%X 26%21% Alverca · 2

53%

26%

21%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Famalicão – Alverca

Marcus Johansson · 3 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Famalicão enters their clash against Alverca with a noticeable edge in the model probabilities, holding a 53% chance of victory compared to the visitors' 21%. Despite this, the numbers hint at a match that could be tighter than the headline odds suggest. Alverca, with a slight advantage in points and expected points, has arguably shown better form recently. Their superior xG per match of 1.4 compared to the home side's 0.89 further bolsters their case for competitiveness in this matchup.

A possession-focused strategy from both teams suggests the midfield battle will be pivotal. The hosts' high press might disrupt Alverca's rhythm, but if the visitors can navigate this pressure, they might exploit Famalicão's susceptibility at the back, as indicated by their xGA of 1.2 per match. Conversely, Alverca's defense, leaking an average of 1.6 xGA, provides opportunities for the home side to capitalize on mistakes and break the deadlock.

In their brief head-to-head history since 2023, Famalicão and Alverca have shared a win each. This small sample size doesn't conclusively predict the outcome but highlights the potential for an evenly matched contest. The model's leading scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, both at 12%, reflect this balance and point to a narrow Famalicão victory or a hard-fought draw.

With a 46% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 49%, the match leans towards a low-scoring affair. Considering the teams' playing styles and defensive vulnerabilities, a 1-1 draw or a slim 1-0 win for either side seems plausible.

Famalicão

Form LDDDW

League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #15xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Marcos PenaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Georgios KoutsiasFxG 0.40 · xT -0.05
Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.12

Alverca

Form LDLWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #8xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Dawda Camara SankhareFxG 1.05 · xT 0.10
Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.11
Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Famalicão – Alverca

Predicted score matrix

Alverca →

Famalicão →

0–08.5%

0–17.4%

0–23.7%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.4%

1–112.4%

1–25.7%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.9%

2–19.4%

2–24.4%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.1%

3–14.9%

3–22.3%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-012%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,55–0,95

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.75

Over 2,546%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Famalicão to win53%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Famalicão to win53%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Tom van de Looi to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Tom van de Looi to score24%
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Famalicão	X	2 · Alverca
Betsafe	1.85	3.20	4.40
LeoVegas	1.83	3.45	4.40
Nordicbet	1.85	3.20	4.40

Odds updated 3 Oct, 21:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

53 %48 %

1.80 → 1.85

X-3 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.20

20 %

23 %18 %

4.40 → 4.40

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.02 → 2.02

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Famalicão 1Draw 0Alverca 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Famalicão

Alverca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Famalicão (9–7)

Alverca (9–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Famalicão

Alverca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Famalicão

Alverca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Famalicão	Alverca
Points	7	8
xPoints	7.7	9.3
xG per match	0.89	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.28

Playing style	Famalicão	Alverca
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.28
Field tilt	0.52	0.4
xT per match	0.67	0.84
xTA per match	0.9	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	23	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.21
Entries into the box per match	10	10
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.68
Passes per match	407	290
Passes against per match	346	413
Switches of play per match	21.4	21.2
Long balls per match	26	27

Set pieces	Famalicão	Alverca
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	5.5	5
Corners against per match	4	3
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.71

Other	Famalicão	Alverca
Throw-in control	0.72	0.68

The goalkeepers	Lazar Carević (Famalicão)	Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)
Saves	16	24
Save %	70%	71%
xG prevented	35%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Famalicão

Fixtures, form & tips

Alverca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Famalicão vs Alverca according to our model?

The model gives Famalicão a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Famalicão 53%, draw 26%, Alverca 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.