Maritimo vs Porto Prediction: Away win 66% (10 Oct 2026)

Primeira Liga10 October 2026Estádio dos Barreiros, Funchal20°13 km/h

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MaritimoPossession control

PortoPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Porto (66%)Best value by the model: 1 · Maritimo @ 9.30 (+28 %)

1 · Maritimo 14%X 20%66% Porto · 2

14%

20%

66%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Maritimo – Porto

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Sixty-six percent is a daunting figure for Maritimo to contend with — a clear model lean towards Porto taking all three points. The statistics underline this: Porto have notched up eight straight wins, and their ability to find the net in 33 consecutive league matches speaks volumes. These aren't isolated facts; they form a pattern that suggests dominance. With Porto's xG per match standing at 2.2 compared to Maritimo's 0.88, the visitors' attacking prowess is unequivocal.

The most probable outcomes are tightly clustered: both 0-2 and 0-1 scorelines each share an 11% likelihood. This implies that while Porto's offensive capabilities are formidable, the hosts could mount enough resistance to avoid a thrashing. Maritimo's focus on possession control may slow Porto's charge but is unlikely to derail it. The projected over 2.5 goals at 57% hints at potential scoring exceeding the baseline, yet the 51% both teams to score suggests Maritimo might find the back of the net.

Despite the odds heavily favoring Porto, the potential value for brave punters lies with Maritimo. At odds of 8.0 with LeoVegas, there’s a 10% edge to be had if the home team pulls off a surprise. A daring gamble, perhaps, but that's where the sharpest angle gleams.

Maritimo

Form DLLLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #9xT #12xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Adrián Butzke BenavidesFxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
Paulo Henrique Rodrigues CabralLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.18

Porto

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #2xP/match #4Points #1

Key players

André Miguel Valente da SilvaFxG 0.55 · xT -0.08
Francisco MouraLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.37
Gabri VeigaLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Maritimo – Porto

Predicted score matrix

Porto →

Maritimo →

0–05.4%

0–110.6%

0–211.5%

0–38.1%

0–4+7.0%

1–04.1%

1–19.6%

1–29.8%

1–36.9%

1–4+5.9%

2–01.9%

2–14.0%

2–24.2%

2–32.9%

2–4+2.5%

3–00.5%

3–11.1%

3–21.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-211%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.1-110%
5.0-38%

Expected goals

0,85–2,11

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.08

Over 2,557%

@1.73

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Porto to win66%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Porto to win66%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Victor Mow Froholdt to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Victor Mow Froholdt to score22%
Maxime Dominguez to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Maritimo14% probability@9.30BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
1 · Maritimo14% probability@9.30NordicbetEV+28%reference odds
1 · Maritimo14% probability@9.00LeoVegasEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Maritimo	X	2 · Porto
Betsafe	EV+ 28% 9.30	4.80	1.31
LeoVegas	EV+ 24% 9.00	EV+ 3% 5.20	1.33
Nordicbet	EV+ 28% 9.30	4.80	1.31

Odds updated 4 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Porto win since 3 October — the odds have shortened from 1.38 to 1.31 (−5%).

1+12 %

13 %8 %

8.30 → 9.30

X+16 %

23 %18 %

4.15 → 4.80

2-5 %

71 %66 %

1.38 → 1.31

Over 2,5-1 %

57 %52 %

1.72 → 1.70

Nordicbet · 8 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FC Porto come into this round on 8 straight wins.
FC Porto have scored in 33 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Maritimo

Porto

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Maritimo (8–12)

Porto (18–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Porto

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Porto

The teams in numbers

Performance	Maritimo	Porto
Points	8	21
xPoints	8.1	12.9
xG per match	0.88	2.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.41
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.3

Playing style	Maritimo	Porto
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.4	0.56
xT per match	0.76	1.4
xTA per match	1.1	0.58
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	17
Entries into the box against	13	7
Pass completion %	0.75	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	317	368
Passes against per match	407	301
Switches of play per match	32.5	19
Long balls per match	37	28

Set pieces	Maritimo	Porto
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.05
Corners per match	3	6.8
Corners against per match	4.3	3.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.67

Other	Maritimo	Porto
Throw-in control	0.75	0.81

The goalkeepers	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)	Diogo Costa (Porto)
Saves	22	14
Save %	67%	82%
xG prevented	28%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Porto

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Maritimo vs Porto according to our model?

The model gives Porto a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Maritimo 14%, draw 20%, Porto 66%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.