Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction: Away win 49% (10 Oct 2026)

Primeira Liga10 October 2026Estádio Pina Manique, Lissabon20°16 km/h

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Casa PiaLow block & direct

Santa ClaraPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Santa Clara (49%)

1 · Casa Pia 22%X 30%49% Santa Clara · 2

22%

30%

49%

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Analysis: Casa Pia – Santa Clara

Sofia Andersson · 3 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Casa Pia's defensive frailties might be the decisive factor when they host Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga. The model paints a clear picture: Santa Clara are the favorites with a 49% likelihood of taking all three points, with a 0-1 away victory pegged at 14%. The numbers suggest a game shaped by Santa Clara's possession-based approach overpowering the hosts' direct style, yet with limited goalscoring opportunities.

Santa Clara's seven-match unbeaten streak in the league underscores their current form advantage. The head-to-head record, though based on a small sample size of four matches, further leans towards the visitors with three wins and a draw. Casa Pia, on the other hand, have struggled, with only 4 points in the same period compared to Santa Clara's 15. The xG and xGA figures reinforce this disparity: Casa Pia’s expected goals per match sit at a modest 0.71, dwarfed by Santa Clara’s 1.5, while Casa Pia’s defense leaks considerably with an xGA of 1.8 against Santa Clara’s solid 0.71.

A low-scoring affair is likely, as indicated by an over 2.5 goals probability of just 38% and a both teams to score chance of 43%. The expected goals tally of 0.87 for Casa Pia against Santa Clara's 1.34 supports a scenario where defenses, particularly the visitors', hold firm. The model suggests a 0-1 scoreline is the most probable outcome, reflecting both the defensive solidity of Santa Clara and the attacking struggles of Casa Pia.

The sharpest betting angle emerges from the visitor's odds. Santa Clara’s win probability of 49% contrasts with the market pricing, with value appearing at odds of 2.20 or higher. This disparity presents a worthwhile opportunity to back the visitors in a clash where Casa Pia's vulnerabilities could well be exploited.

Casa Pia

Form LLDLW

League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #13xP/match #17Points #17

Key players

João Pedro Goulart SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
David SousaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Lawrence OforiFxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

Santa Clara

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #9xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Gonçalo Mendes PaciênciaFxG 0.73 · xT 0.08
Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.04
Diogo dos Santos CabralRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Casa Pia – Santa Clara

Predicted score matrix

Santa Clara →

Casa Pia →

0–011.3%

0–114.3%

0–29.8%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.0%

1–09.2%

1–113.2%

1–28.6%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–04.2%

2–15.6%

2–23.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.7%

3–01.2%

3–11.6%

3–21.1%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-114%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.0-210%
5.1-09%

Expected goals

0,87–1,34

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+7%

Under 2,562%

@1.55

Over 2,538%

@2.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Santa Clara to win49%
Under 3.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Santa Clara to win49%
Under 2.5 goals62%
Gonçalo Mendes Paciência to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Gonçalo Mendes Paciência to score22%
Daniel Borges da Silva to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Casa Pia	X	2 · Santa Clara
Betsafe	4.40	3.15	1.88
LeoVegas	4.40	3.25	1.90
Nordicbet	4.40	3.15	1.88

Odds updated 4 Oct, 05:36

Odds movement

10 %

24 %19 %

4.40 → 4.40

X+2 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.15

20 %

52 %47 %

1.88 → 1.88

Over 2,5-4 %

42 %37 %

2.42 → 2.32

Nordicbet · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Casa Pia 0Draw 1Santa Clara 3

Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Casa Pia

Santa Clara

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Casa Pia (3–16)

Santa Clara (11–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

Santa Clara

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Casa Pia

Santa Clara

The teams in numbers

Performance	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
Points	4	15
xPoints	5.6	13.8
xG per match	0.71	1.5
xGA per match	1.8	0.71
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.48	0.1

Playing style	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.43	0.44
xT per match	0.76	0.82
xTA per match	1.1	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	25	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.72	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.67
Passes per match	276	302
Passes against per match	363	382
Switches of play per match	25	27.9
Long balls per match	29	31

Set pieces	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	4.1	3.7
Corners against per match	6.1	5.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.59

Other	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
Throw-in control	0.72	0.68

The goalkeepers	Ivan Mandić (Casa Pia)	Lucas Franca (Santa Clara)
Saves	12	13
Save %	71%	77%
xG prevented	30%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Casa Pia

Fixtures, form & tips

Santa Clara

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Casa Pia vs Santa Clara according to our model?

The model gives Santa Clara a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Casa Pia 22%, draw 30%, Santa Clara 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.