Moreirense vs Gil Vicente Prediction: Away win 45% (9 Oct 2026)

Primeira Liga9 October 2026Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos18°14 km/h

Läs på svenska

MoreirenseLow block & direct

Gil VicentePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Gil Vicente (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.20 (+1 %)

1 · Moreirense 23%X 32%45% Gil Vicente · 2

23%

32%

45%

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Analysis: Moreirense – Gil Vicente

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Gil Vicente's 45% win probability casts them as the favorites against Moreirense, underscored by their superior expected goals (1.42 to 0.96). The visitors' possession-based approach contrasts sharply with the home side's direct style, and this tactical mismatch further tilts the scales in Gil Vicente's favor. Although Moreirense have an even head-to-head record with Gil Vicente since 2023, the small sample size of just four matches diminishes its weight compared to current form and expected metrics.

In terms of output, a 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline is most probable at 13% each, reflecting a game likely dominated by strategic control rather than goalmouth action. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at a modest 42%, while both teams scoring is at 47%, suggesting a low-scoring affair. Moreirense's shaky defense, conceding 1.7 expected goals per match, could be exploited by Gil Vicente's attacking efficiency.

The sharpest angle here is the slight value on the draw at odds of 3.2 with LeoVegas, offering a 1% edge given the model's 32% probability. While Gil Vicente holds a statistical edge, the market may have overlooked the potential for this game to be evenly poised, making the draw a quietly appealing option.

Moreirense

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #17xP/match #12Points #10

Key players

Dinis PintoRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
Mateja StjepanovićFxG 0.01 · xT -0.02
Rodri AlonsoLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Gil Vicente

Form WDLLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #10xP/match #5Points #12

Key players

Diogo PriosteCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Jonathan BuatuCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Marvin ElimbiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Moreirense – Gil Vicente

Predicted score matrix

Gil Vicente →

Moreirense →

0–09.6%

0–112.8%

0–29.3%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.1%

1–08.5%

1–113.0%

1–29.0%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.1%

2–04.3%

2–16.0%

2–24.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+1.0%

3–01.4%

3–11.9%

3–21.4%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-113%
3.0-010%
4.0-29%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

0,96–1,42

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.60

Over 2,542%

@2.28

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Gil Vicente to win45%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Gil Vicente to win45%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Santiago García González to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Santiago García González to score30%
Guilherme Liberato Tomas de Aquino to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.20LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
2 · Gil Vicente45% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
2 · Gil Vicente45% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Moreirense	X	2 · Gil Vicente
Betsafe	3.35	3.00	EV+ 1% 2.22
LeoVegas	3.40	EV+ 1% 3.20	2.20
Nordicbet	3.35	3.00	EV+ 1% 2.22

Odds updated 2 Oct, 20:36

Odds movement

10 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.40

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.20

20 %

45 %40 %

2.20 → 2.20

Over 2,5+2 %

44 %39 %

2.20 → 2.25

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Moreirense 2Draw 0Gil Vicente 2

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Moreirense

Gil Vicente

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Moreirense (8–14)

Gil Vicente (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Gil Vicente

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Moreirense

Gil Vicente

The teams in numbers

Performance	Moreirense	Gil Vicente
Points	8	8
xPoints	8.1	11
xG per match	0.74	1.4
xGA per match	1.7	0.82
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.44	0.2

Playing style	Moreirense	Gil Vicente
Build-up efficiency	0.24	0.27
Field tilt	0.2	0.56
xT per match	0.52	0.8
xTA per match	1.2	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	19	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.2
Entries into the box per match	5	10
Entries into the box against	16	11
Pass completion %	0.69	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.77
Passes per match	245	411
Passes against per match	497	347
Switches of play per match	15.6	20.1
Long balls per match	24	26

Set pieces	Moreirense	Gil Vicente
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.02
Corners per match	2.1	3.7
Corners against per match	5.1	5
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.67

Other	Moreirense	Gil Vicente
Throw-in control	0.7	0.76

The goalkeepers	Andre Ferreira (Moreirense)	Lucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo (Gil Vicente)
Saves	21	9
Save %	62%	64%
xG prevented	41%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Moreirense

Fixtures, form & tips

Gil Vicente

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Moreirense vs Gil Vicente according to our model?

The model gives Gil Vicente a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Moreirense 23%, draw 32%, Gil Vicente 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.