Porto vs Benfica: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga20 September 2026Estádio do Dragão, Porto24°13 km/h

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PortoPossession control

BenficaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Benfica (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.44 (+2 %)

1 · Porto 31%X 30%39% Benfica · 2

31%

30%

39%

Analysis: Porto – Benfica

Oscar Nilsson · 12 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

FAKTA does not specify which team is the home side, so the text's reference to Porto as "the hosts" is an unsupported claim. The FAKTA also do not mention any betting odds, so the "2.50 with Bet365" detail is unsupported. Corrected text:

Benfica's edge is underscored by the model's probabilities: they have a 39% chance of victory compared to Porto's 31%. It reflects both teams' recent form and expected goals — with Porto coming off six straight wins but Benfica boasting a higher expected goals tally of 1.49 compared to Porto's 1.36. The visitors' high pressing style and scoring streak in 19 consecutive league matches bolster their chances, alongside their edge in xPoints (12.0 vs Porto's 9.2).

However, Porto's formidable form is not to be discounted. They've scored in 31 consecutive league matches, highlighting their attacking consistency. Despite a slight disadvantage in head-to-head results since 2023, with no wins in four encounters against Benfica, the sample is small. Porto's possession control strategy could disrupt Benfica's pressing game, making this clash less predictable.

The model favors Benfica, especially considering their superior xG (2.8 per match) and xGA (0.31 per match) metrics. The game leans towards a Benfica win, with a most probable scoreline of 1-1 or 1-2. The 54% probability of over 2.5 goals suggests a likelihood for multiple goals, yet the overall model edge supports Benfica.

Porto

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #2xP/match #6Points #1

Key players

William GomesRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.29
André Miguel Valente da SilvaFxG 0.52 · xT -0.13
Gabri VeigaCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.21

Benfica

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Vangelis PavlidisFxG 0.85 · xT 0.22
Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.43 · xT 0.50
Samuel DahlLBxG 0.12 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Porto – Benfica

Predicted score matrix

Benfica →

Porto →

0–06.1%

0–18.3%

0–26.4%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.6%

1–07.5%

1–112.1%

1–28.7%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.4%

2–18.0%

2–25.9%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.4%

3–13.6%

3–22.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,36–1,49

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.04

Over 2,554%

@1.82

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Benfica or draw (X2)66%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Benfica or draw (X2)66%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score33%
Clément Nicolas Laurent Lenglet to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.44PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.40BetssonEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Porto	X	2 · Benfica
Betsafe	2.65	EV+ 1% 3.40	2.45
Betsson	2.65	EV+ 1% 3.40	2.45
Nordicbet	2.65	EV+ 1% 3.40	2.45
Pinnacle	2.75	EV+ 2% 3.44	2.50

Odds updated 15 Sept, 10:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

37 %32 %

2.73 → 2.75

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.43 → 3.44

2-1 %

40 %35 %

2.53 → 2.50

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.78 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Porto 0Draw 2Benfica 2

Goals: 4–10 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Porto come into this round on 6 straight wins.
FC Porto have scored in 31 consecutive league matches.
Benfica come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Benfica have scored in 19 consecutive league matches.
FC Porto win 76% of their home matches all-time (54 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Porto

Benfica

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Porto (11–1)

Benfica (18–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Porto

Benfica

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Porto

Benfica

The teams in numbers

Performance	Porto	Benfica
Points	15	13
xPoints	9.2	12
xG per match	2.2	2.8
xGA per match	0.98	0.31
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.67
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.02

Playing style	Porto	Benfica
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.63	0.84
xT per match	1.5	1.9
xTA per match	0.5	0.33
Won balls, offensive half	27	33
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.26
Entries into the box per match	19	27
Entries into the box against	6	5
Pass completion %	0.79	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.77
Passes per match	387	527
Passes against per match	318	244
Switches of play per match	21.3	37.8
Long balls per match	32	42

Set pieces	Porto	Benfica
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.05
Corners per match	6.9	6.8
Corners against per match	3.8	1.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.44

Other	Porto	Benfica
Throw-in control	0.79	0.75

The goalkeepers	Diogo Costa (Porto)	Samuel Soares (Benfica)
Saves	9	5
Save %	90%	63%
xG prevented	85%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Porto

Fixtures, form & tips

Benfica

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Porto vs Benfica according to our model?

The model gives Benfica a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto 31%, draw 30%, Benfica 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.