Gil Vicente vs Maritimo: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga20 September 2026Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos22°11 km/h

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Gil VicentePossession control

MaritimoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Gil Vicente (56%)

1 · Gil Vicente 56%X 26%18% Maritimo · 2

56%

26%

18%

Analysis: Gil Vicente – Maritimo

Marcus Johansson · 12 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The odds and bookmaker citation ("odds of 1.80 with Bet365") are not supported by the given facts. Corrected text below:

Possession battles often hinge on nuanced differences, and the matchup between Gil Vicente and Maritimo promises exactly that. Both teams favor controlling the ball, but the hosts have shown a sharper edge in converting possession into tangible threat. With Gil Vicente's expected goals per match at 1.4 compared to Maritimo's 0.91, the home side seems poised to dictate the tempo.

The numbers further emphasize this edge. Gil Vicente's xGA per match is a stingy 0.43, which suggests that Maritimo will find it challenging to carve out clear-cut chances. In contrast, Maritimo's defense has been more porous, conceding an expected 1.1 goals per match. This disparity in defensive solidity could prove decisive, especially in a game where both sides aim to dominate possession.

Despite the small sample size in head-to-head matchups since 2023, Gil Vicente's overall form and statistical superiority offer a clearer picture. The model gives the home team a 56% chance of victory, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-0 win. With an expected goals total of 1.66 for Gil Vicente against Maritimo's 0.89, their ability to strike quickly within 8 seconds of winning the ball (xG of 0.34) could be a pivotal factor.

This match is likely to stay under 2.5 goals, with only a 47% chance of surpassing that mark. The over/under lean aligns with the model’s expected goals, which suggest a controlled affair. Given these insights, there's potential value in backing Gil Vicente, reflecting their likely dominance in a tactical possession showdown.

Gil Vicente

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #8xP/match #4Points #7

Key players

Jonathan BuatuCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Marvin ElimbiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Héctor José Hernández MarreroFxG 1.00 · xT -0.03

Maritimo

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #12xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Paulo Henrique Rodrigues CabralLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
Adrián Butzke BenavidesLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Gil Vicente – Maritimo

Predicted score matrix

Maritimo →

Gil Vicente →

0–08.2%

0–16.6%

0–23.1%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.7%

1–111.9%

1–25.1%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.8%

2–19.6%

2–24.2%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.0%

3–15.3%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.6%

4+–13.2%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,66–0,89

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.60

Over 2,547%

@2.34EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Gil Vicente to win56%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Gil Vicente to win56%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Santiago García González to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Santiago García González to score25%
Vladan Danilović to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Gil Vicente56% probability@2.28Betfair ExchangeEV+28%reference odds
1 · Gil Vicente56% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
Over 2.547% probability@2.34PinnacleEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gil Vicente	X	2 · Maritimo
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 28% 2.28	3.20	3.40
Betsafe	EV+ 8% 1.92	3.30	3.95
Betsson	EV+ 8% 1.92	3.30	3.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 8% 1.92	3.30	3.95
Pinnacle	EV+ 10% 1.96	3.39	3.97

Odds updated 15 Sept, 06:36

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gil Vicente

Maritimo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gil Vicente (3–1)

Maritimo (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gil Vicente

Maritimo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gil Vicente

Maritimo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
Points	7	7
xPoints	8.1	7
xG per match	1.4	0.91
xGA per match	0.43	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.16

Playing style	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.64	0.37
xT per match	0.81	0.75
xTA per match	0.55	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.19
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.81	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.66
Passes per match	439	288
Passes against per match	332	419
Switches of play per match	21.6	29.5
Long balls per match	27	35

Set pieces	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	4.5	2.6
Corners against per match	3.3	4.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.77	0.7

Other	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
Throw-in control	0.76	0.72

The goalkeepers	Lucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo (Gil Vicente)	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)
Saves	5	21
Save %	83%	72%
xG prevented	83%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gil Vicente

Fixtures, form & tips

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gil Vicente vs Maritimo according to our model?

The model gives Gil Vicente a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gil Vicente 56%, draw 26%, Maritimo 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.