Primeira Liga

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    AlvercaAlvercaPossession control
    vs
    Rio AveRio AveLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Alverca (40%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.50 (+19 %)

    Alverca vs Rio Ave · Primeira Liga

    1 · Alverca 40%X 34%26% Rio Ave · 2

    Analysis: Alverca – Rio Ave

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The betting markets might be overlooking Alverca in this matchup. Despite recent form showing a slight points edge for Rio Ave, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Alverca's expected goals per match at 1.1, nearly double that of their opponents' 0.54, suggest they’ve been more capable of creating scoring opportunities. Furthermore, their model probability to win stands at 40%, significantly higher than Rio Ave’s 26%.

    The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample of just two games, slightly favors the hosts with one win and one draw since 2023. While not definitive, it does bolster the narrative of Alverca's current strengths. Expected goals further lean towards a narrow victory for the home side, with the most likely scorelines being a tight 1-1 or a 1-0 win for Alverca, both at a 13% probability.

    Given their superior xPoints of 5.4 compared to Rio Ave’s 4.0, Alverca appear to hold an edge in underlying quality. With both teams' defensive tendencies, a low-scoring affair is likely—highlighted by a 39% likelihood for over 2.5 goals. Expect a cautious encounter, tilting towards Alverca.

    AlvercaAlverca
    Form LDLDL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #15xP/match #12Points #16
    Key players
    • Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.06
    • Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosFxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
    • Isaac JamesLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
    Rio AveRio Ave
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #17xP/match #15Points #15
    Key players
    • Jalen Aleix Miller BlesaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
    • Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroFxG 0.20 · xT 0.01
    • Andreas Richardos NtoiFxG 0.03 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Alverca – Rio Ave

    Predicted score matrix

    Rio Ave →
    Alverca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.1%
    0–19.9%
    0–25.0%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–013.2%
    1–113.5%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–08.7%
    2–18.3%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–13.5%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,27–0,96
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,561%
    @1.78EV+9%
    Over 2,539%
    @2.11

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Alverca or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Alverca or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 2.5 goals61%
    • Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals39%
    • Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa to score23%
    • Tamás Nikitscher to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw34% probability@3.50Betfair ExchangeEV+19%reference odds
    • X · Draw34% probability@3.48PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
    • X · Draw34% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AlvercaX2 · Rio Ave
    Betfair Exchange2.02
    EV+ 19%
    3.50    		3.80
    Betsafe1.85
    EV+ 16%
    3.40
    EV+ 7%
    4.10
    Betsson1.85
    EV+ 16%
    3.40
    EV+ 7%
    4.10
    Nordicbet1.85
    EV+ 16%
    3.40
    EV+ 7%
    4.10
    Pinnacle1.88
    EV+ 18%
    3.48
    EV+ 11%
    4.22

    Odds updated 15 Sept, 10:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Alverca 1Draw 1Rio Ave 0
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Alverca
    Rio Ave
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Alverca (5–10)
    Rio Ave (2–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Alverca
    Yahya Bojang: 212 passningar, xT 0.17BojangSteven Baseya: 192 passningar, xT 0.39BaseyaIsaac James: 163 passningar, xT 0.67JamesDavy Gui: 101 passningar, xT 0.14GuiNabil Zoubdi Touaizi: 100 passningar, xT 0.27TouaiziMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira: 93 passningar, xT 0.04OliveiraLucas Figueiredo dos Santos: 87 passningar, xT 0.21SantosIan Luccas Baroni Boetto: 79 passningar, xT 0.01BoettoBastien Meupiyou: 78 passningar, xT 0.15MeupiyouRayan Lucas Marques de Souza: 63 passningar, xT 0.42SouzaFrancisco Edgar Chissumba Rodrigues: 61 passningar, xT 0.1Rodrigues
    Rio Ave
    Francisco Petrasso: 204 passningar, xT 0.1PetrassoGeorgios Liavas: 185 passningar, xT 0.62LiavasEnnio van der Gouw: 174 passningar, xT 0.1GouwGustavo Teixeira Lopes da Conceição: 157 passningar, xT 0.15ConceiçãoTamás Nikitscher: 107 passningar, xT 0.06NikitscherDiogo André Santos Nascimento: 99 passningar, xT 0.08NascimentoJalen Aleix Miller Blesa: 80 passningar, xT 0.14BlesaNelson Abbey: 72 passningar, xT 0.1AbbeyAndreas Richardos Ntoi: 67 passningar, xT 0.06NtoiDiogo Bezerra de Oliveira: 64 passningar, xT 0.59OliveiraTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro: 57 passningar, xT 0.03Monteiro
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Alverca
    Yahya Bojang: 212 passningar, xT 0.17BojangSteven Baseya: 192 passningar, xT 0.39BaseyaIsaac James: 163 passningar, xT 0.67JamesDavy Gui: 101 passningar, xT 0.14GuiNabil Zoubdi Touaizi: 100 passningar, xT 0.27TouaiziMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira: 93 passningar, xT 0.04OliveiraLucas Figueiredo dos Santos: 87 passningar, xT 0.21SantosIan Luccas Baroni Boetto: 79 passningar, xT 0.01BoettoBastien Meupiyou: 78 passningar, xT 0.15MeupiyouRayan Lucas Marques de Souza: 63 passningar, xT 0.42SouzaFrancisco Edgar Chissumba Rodrigues: 61 passningar, xT 0.1Rodrigues
    Rio Ave
    Francisco Petrasso: 204 passningar, xT 0.1PetrassoGeorgios Liavas: 185 passningar, xT 0.62LiavasEnnio van der Gouw: 174 passningar, xT 0.1GouwGustavo Teixeira Lopes da Conceição: 157 passningar, xT 0.15ConceiçãoTamás Nikitscher: 107 passningar, xT 0.06NikitscherDiogo André Santos Nascimento: 99 passningar, xT 0.08NascimentoJalen Aleix Miller Blesa: 80 passningar, xT 0.14BlesaNelson Abbey: 72 passningar, xT 0.1AbbeyAndreas Richardos Ntoi: 67 passningar, xT 0.06NtoiDiogo Bezerra de Oliveira: 64 passningar, xT 0.59OliveiraTamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro: 57 passningar, xT 0.03Monteiro

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAlvercaRio Ave
    Points23
    xPoints5.44
    xG per match1.10.54
    xGA per match1.81.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360.1
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.380.26
    Playing styleAlvercaRio Ave
    Build-up efficiency0.280.26
    Field tilt0.340.34
    xT per match0.580.47
    xTA per match0.791.4
    Won balls, offensive half2121
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.15
    Entries into the box per match86
    Entries into the box against1015
    Pass completion %0.740.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.73
    Passes per match283300
    Passes against per match426446
    Switches of play per match21.623.1
    Long balls per match2628
    Set piecesAlvercaRio Ave
    xG from free kicks0.010.11
    Corners per match5.33
    Corners against per match3.25.7
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.57
    OtherAlvercaRio Ave
    Throw-in control0.70.66
    The goalkeepersMatheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)Ennio van der Gouw (Rio Ave)
    Saves1819
    Save %67%63%
    xG prevented34%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Alverca
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rio Ave
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Alverca vs Rio Ave according to our model?

    The model gives Alverca a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alverca 40%, draw 34%, Rio Ave 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.