Sporting CP vs Arouca: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga20 September 2026Estádio José Alvalade, Lissabon22°21 km/h

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Sporting CPPossession & high press

AroucaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP (80%)

1 · Sporting CP 80%X 13%6% Arouca · 2

80%

13%

Analysis: Sporting CP – Arouca

Sofia Andersson · 12 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between these teams since 2023 is limited, with only two encounters, both resulting in victories for Sporting. While historical results are always a consideration, the small sample size here should take a back seat to current form and metrics. Sporting's home dominance is clear, winning 80% of their all-time home matches, further complicating Arouca's task.

Given the 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, bettors might lean toward a high-scoring affair, especially with Sporting's prolific offense. The most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0 suggest a clean sheet for the hosts, aligning with their solid defensive numbers—conceding just 0.57 xGA per match. Sporting's momentum and statistical superiority suggest a comfortable win, with a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline a credible prediction.

Sporting CP's lethal attack, which has found the net in 39 consecutive league matches, is set to clash with Arouca's more pragmatic approach. With the hosts coming off four straight victories, their high-pressing, possession-heavy style is expected to dominate once again. The model's numbers paint a decisive picture: a commanding 80% probability of a Sporting victory, with expected goals heavily favoring them at 2.64 compared to Arouca's meager 0.71.

Arouca, known for their balanced and physical play, face a daunting challenge. The visitors' expected goals per match stand at just 0.95, a stark contrast to Sporting's 2.1. This disparity underscores the uphill battle Arouca faces at José Alvalade Stadium. Although Arouca has managed to gather 10 points this season, their underlying xPoints at 6.2 reveal a team punching above its weight. Sporting's xPoints, meanwhile, sit at 10.9, aligning more closely with their actual tally of 13 points.

Sporting CP

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #4xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Luis SuarezFxG 0.70 · xT 0.07
Maxi AraujoLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Fotis IoannidisFxG 1.46 · xT -0.04

Arouca

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #7xP/match #10Points #5

Key players

Ivan BarberoFxG 0.47 · xT -0.02
Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.01
Näis DjouahraLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Sporting CP – Arouca

Predicted score matrix

Arouca →

Sporting CP →

0–03.7%

0–12.3%

0–20.9%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–09.1%

1–16.7%

1–22.3%

1–30.5%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.3%

2–18.7%

2–23.1%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–010.8%

3–17.6%

3–22.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–013.5%

4+–19.5%

4+–23.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.3-011%
3.1-09%
4.2-19%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,64–0,71

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@2.82

Over 2,565%

@1.41

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sporting CP to win80%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sporting CP to win80%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Luis Javier Suárez Charris to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Luis Javier Suárez Charris to score38%
Javier Sánchez de Felipe to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sporting CP	X	2 · Arouca
Betfair Exchange	1.20	7.40	14.00
Betsafe	1.20	6.10	10.50
Betsson	1.20	6.10	10.50
Nordicbet	1.20	6.10	10.50

Odds updated 15 Sept, 10:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Sporting CP win since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 1.29 to 1.20 (−7%).

1-7 %

80 %75 %

1.29 → 1.20

X+19 %

17 %12 %

6.20 → 7.40

2+27 %

10 %5 %

11.00 → 14.00

Betfair Exchange · 3 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sporting CP 2Draw 0Arouca 0

Goals: 8–1 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Sporting Lisboa come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Sporting Lisboa have scored in 39 consecutive league matches.
Sporting Lisboa win 80% of their home matches all-time (20 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sporting CP

Arouca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sporting CP (14–5)

Arouca (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Arouca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Arouca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sporting CP	Arouca
Points	13	10
xPoints	10.9	6.2
xG per match	2.1	0.95
xGA per match	0.57	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.3

Playing style	Sporting CP	Arouca
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.27
Field tilt	0.63	0.44
xT per match	1	0.85
xTA per match	0.47	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	24	19
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	7
Entries into the box against	6	15
Pass completion %	0.84	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.76
Passes per match	520	398
Passes against per match	319	409
Switches of play per match	35.8	27.2
Long balls per match	36	30

Set pieces	Sporting CP	Arouca
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	5.5	2.6
Corners against per match	2.5	6.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.84

Other	Sporting CP	Arouca
Throw-in control	0.77	0.81

The goalkeepers	Rui Silva (Sporting CP)	Ignacio de Arruabarrena Fernández (Arouca)
Saves	7	24
Save %	64%	89%
xG prevented	67%	84%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sporting CP

Fixtures, form & tips

Arouca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sporting CP vs Arouca according to our model?

The model gives Sporting CP a 80% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP 80%, draw 13%, Arouca 6%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.