Primeira LigaEstádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril25°12 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Estoril PraiaEstoril PraiaPossession & high press
    vs
    Casa PiaCasa PiaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Estoril Praia (51%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.80 (+13 %)

    Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

    1 · Estoril Praia 51%X 30%20% Casa Pia · 2

    Analysis: Estoril Praia – Casa Pia

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Estoril Praia's high press and possession-based style is set to clash with Casa Pia's more defensive and direct approach. The probabilities clearly lean towards the hosts, with a 51% chance of victory. Their expected goals of 1.69 is nearly double Casa Pia's 0.89, underlining Estoril's superior attacking potential. The most likely scorelines — 1-0 and 1-1 — both reflect the tight nature of this contest but give a slight edge to the home side.

    Diving deeper into the numbers, Estoril has demonstrated a marginally better head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small sample size of four matches. This record, coupled with their higher points and expected points tally this season, portrays a team that's likely to dominate proceedings. Their xPoints of 5.2 versus Casa Pia's 2.8 further emphasize their potential to control this matchup.

    Casa Pia's strategy of sitting deep and striking on the break has not translated into significant attacking output, with an xG per match of just 0.42. However, their defensive resilience can't be overlooked, even if Estoril's offensive xG of 0.78 per match suggests they might find a breakthrough. Casa Pia's higher xGA of 1.8 compared to Estoril's 1.5 hints at vulnerabilities that the home side could exploit.

    With an over 2.5 goals likelihood of 48% and similar odds for both teams to score, the encounter could see limited goal action, influenced by Casa Pia's defensive tactics. A 1-0 victory for Estoril seems a prudent prediction, aligning with their superior xG and the model's lean.

    From a betting perspective, Estoril Praia are undervalued given their modelling edge. If you're looking for value, consider backing them at odds greater than 1.96, which reflects the model's view of their winning chances more accurately.

    Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia
    Form DLLLD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #5xP/match #13Points #17
    Key players
    • Yanis Redha BegraouiFxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
    • Joao CarvalhoLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.13
    • Andre LacximicantLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.15
    Casa PiaCasa Pia
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #6xP/match #18Points #18
    Key players
    • João Pedro Goulart SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • David SousaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
    • Diogo Filipe Costa RochaFxG 0.12 · xT 0.26

    Match prediction: Estoril Praia – Casa Pia

    Predicted score matrix

    Casa Pia →
    Estoril Praia →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–16.4%
    0–23.0%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–012.5%
    1–111.7%
    1–25.1%
    1–31.5%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.8%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–06.1%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.8%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,69–0,89
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.87
    Over 2,548%
    @1.95

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Estoril Praia to win51%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.56

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Estoril Praia to win51%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Yanis Redha Begraoui to score33%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Yanis Redha Begraoui to score33%
    • David Sousa Albino to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw30% probability@3.80Paddy PowerEV+13%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.72PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Estoril PraiaX2 · Casa Pia
    Betsafe1.75
    EV+ 7%
    3.60    		4.25
    Betsson1.75
    EV+ 7%
    3.60    		4.25
    Nordicbet1.75
    EV+ 7%
    3.60    		4.25
    Paddy Power1.70
    EV+ 13%
    3.80    		4.50
    Pinnacle1.78
    EV+ 10%
    3.72    		4.39

    Odds updated 15 Sept, 05:03

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Estoril Praia 1Draw 2Casa Pia 1
    Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Estoril Praia
    Casa Pia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Estoril Praia (2–7)
    Casa Pia (0–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Estoril Praia
    Ismael Sierra Arnal: 254 passningar, xT 0.28ArnalFrancisco Reis Ferreira: 218 passningar, xT 0.39FerreiraFernando Medrano Gastañaga: 152 passningar, xT 0.25GastañagaJoao Carvalho: 131 passningar, xT 0.38CarvalhoJoel Robles: 115 passningar, xT 0.14RoblesRicard Sanchez: 104 passningar, xT 0.29SanchezAntef Tsoungui: 94 passningar, xT 0.03TsounguiRafik Guitane: 82 passningar, xT 0.5GuitaneJordan Holsgrove: 80 passningar, xT 0.04HolsgroveAndre Lacximicant: 60 passningar, xT 0.35LacximicantYanis Redha Begraoui: 56 passningar, xT 0.02Begraoui
    Casa Pia
    David Sousa: 220 passningar, xT 0.24SousaJoão Pedro Goulart Silva: 208 passningar, xT 0.25SilvaAndre Geraldes: 169 passningar, xT 0.14GeraldesLawrence Ofori: 159 passningar, xT 0.34OforiAndre Gomes: 131 passningar, xT 0.13GomesAbdu Conte: 97 passningar, xT 0.24ConteSeba Perez: 89 passningar, xT 0.36PerezSilvi Clua Oya: 86 passningar, xT 0.19OyaPedro Silva Rosas: 70 passningar, xT 0.71RosasDiogo Filipe Costa Rocha: 50 passningar, xT 0.57RochaMárcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira: 43 passningar, xT 0.01Pereira
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Estoril Praia
    Ismael Sierra Arnal: 254 passningar, xT 0.28ArnalFrancisco Reis Ferreira: 218 passningar, xT 0.39FerreiraFernando Medrano Gastañaga: 152 passningar, xT 0.25GastañagaJoao Carvalho: 131 passningar, xT 0.38CarvalhoJoel Robles: 115 passningar, xT 0.14RoblesRicard Sanchez: 104 passningar, xT 0.29SanchezAntef Tsoungui: 94 passningar, xT 0.03TsounguiRafik Guitane: 82 passningar, xT 0.5GuitaneJordan Holsgrove: 80 passningar, xT 0.04HolsgroveAndre Lacximicant: 60 passningar, xT 0.35LacximicantYanis Redha Begraoui: 56 passningar, xT 0.02Begraoui
    Casa Pia
    David Sousa: 220 passningar, xT 0.24SousaJoão Pedro Goulart Silva: 208 passningar, xT 0.25SilvaAndre Geraldes: 169 passningar, xT 0.14GeraldesLawrence Ofori: 159 passningar, xT 0.34OforiAndre Gomes: 131 passningar, xT 0.13GomesAbdu Conte: 97 passningar, xT 0.24ConteSeba Perez: 89 passningar, xT 0.36PerezSilvi Clua Oya: 86 passningar, xT 0.19OyaPedro Silva Rosas: 70 passningar, xT 0.71RosasDiogo Filipe Costa Rocha: 50 passningar, xT 0.57RochaMárcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira: 43 passningar, xT 0.01Pereira

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceEstoril PraiaCasa Pia
    Points21
    xPoints5.22.8
    xG per match0.780.42
    xGA per match1.51.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.5
    Playing styleEstoril PraiaCasa Pia
    Build-up efficiency0.290.28
    Field tilt0.440.36
    xT per match0.850.85
    xTA per match11.2
    Won balls, offensive half2825
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.22
    Entries into the box per match1112
    Entries into the box against1215
    Pass completion %0.740.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.69
    Passes per match322303
    Passes against per match416379
    Switches of play per match24.730
    Long balls per match3030
    Set piecesEstoril PraiaCasa Pia
    xG from free kicks0.020.03
    Corners per match5.14
    Corners against per match5.55.2
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.280.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.5
    OtherEstoril PraiaCasa Pia
    Throw-in control0.640.71
    The goalkeepersJoel Robles (Estoril Praia)Andre Gomes (Casa Pia)
    Saves1011
    Save %59%52%
    xG prevented42%30%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Estoril Praia
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Casa Pia
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia according to our model?

    The model gives Estoril Praia a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estoril Praia 51%, draw 30%, Casa Pia 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia
    1–1
    FamalicãoFamalicão
    1 31%X 27%2 42%
    The model missed the outcome
    Vitória de GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães
    0–1
    AroucaArouca
    1 46%X 28%2 26%
    The model missed the outcome
    MaritimoMaritimo
    1–0
    Casa PiaCasa Pia
    1 48%X 29%2 23%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.