Gil Vicente vs Maritimo: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga19 September 2026Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos21°8 km/h

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Gil VicentePossession control

1–1

MaritimoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Gil Vicente (56%)

1 · Gil Vicente 56%X 26%18% Maritimo · 2

56%

26%

18%

Analysis: Gil Vicente – Maritimo

Marcus Johansson · 19 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Gil Vicente hold the upper hand with a 56% win probability against Maritimo's mere 18%. The hosts have an edge not just in model predictions but also in every metric: higher expected goals, better defensive numbers, and superior performance in transition. Maritimo's current form falters with a three-game losing streak, which underscores their struggle to find footing this season.

Both teams share a possession-focused playing style, likely leading to a tactical chess match in midfield. However, Gil Vicente's capacity to convert possession into scoring chances is superior, evidenced by an expected goals tally of 1.3 per match compared to Maritimo's 0.91. This advantage is mirrored defensively, where the hosts concede fewer chances, boasting an xGA of just 0.86. The expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball further illustrate Gil Vicente's sharpness in transitions, adding another layer to their superiority.

While the numbers suggest a narrow victory for the home side, there's an intriguing value play on the board. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.45 for over 3.5 goals, a market where the model sees a 25% probability, revealing a 12% value edge. Embracing this opportunity could be worthwhile for those seeking a higher-risk punt beyond the likely 1-0 or 2-0 outcome.

Gil Vicente

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #10xP/match #5Points #11

Key players

Marvin ElimbiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Héctor José Hernández MarreroFxG 0.88 · xT -0.02
Diogo PriosteCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.24

Maritimo

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #13xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Paulo Henrique Rodrigues CabralLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.15
Adrián Butzke BenavidesLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.10

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Gil Vicente 56% · Draw 26% · Maritimo 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Gil VicenteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,05fair 7,88+15 %

Miss

Matchresultat - MarítimoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 17,76fair 27,13-35 %

Miss

Match prediction: Gil Vicente – Maritimo

Predicted score matrix

Maritimo →

Gil Vicente →

0–08.2%

0–16.6%

0–23.1%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.7%

1–111.9%

1–25.1%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.8%

2–19.6%

2–24.2%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.0%

3–15.3%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.6%

4+–13.2%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,66–0,89

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.63

Over 2,547%

@2.37EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Gil Vicente to win56%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Gil Vicente to win56%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Héctor José Hernández Marrero to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Héctor José Hernández Marrero to score27%
Rafael Tavares Gomes Fernandes to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Gil Vicente56% probability@2.28Betfair ExchangeEV+28%reference odds
Over 3.525% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Over 3.525% probability@4.45BetssonEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gil Vicente	X	2 · Maritimo
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 28% 2.28	3.20	3.40
Betsafe	EV+ 11% 1.98	3.20	3.95
Betsson	EV+ 11% 1.98	3.20	3.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 11% 1.98	3.20	3.95
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 2.00	3.39	4.10

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

1+2 %

51 %46 %

1.96 → 2.00

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.39 → 3.39

2+3 %

26 %21 %

3.97 → 4.10

Over 2,5+1 %

44 %39 %

2.34 → 2.37

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Maritimo have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gil Vicente

Maritimo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gil Vicente (4–4)

Maritimo (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gil Vicente

Maritimo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gil Vicente

Maritimo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
Points	7	7
xPoints	8.9	7.4
xG per match	1.3	0.91
xGA per match	0.86	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.18

Playing style	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.54	0.41
xT per match	0.79	0.71
xTA per match	0.84	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	19	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.8	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.67
Passes per match	403	322
Passes against per match	360	399
Switches of play per match	19.9	33.9
Long balls per match	26	39

Set pieces	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	3.6	3
Corners against per match	5.4	4.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.69

Other	Gil Vicente	Maritimo
Throw-in control	0.75	0.75

The goalkeepers	Lucas Alexandre Galdino de Azevedo (Gil Vicente)	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)
Saves	7	22
Save %	64%	67%
xG prevented	24%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gil Vicente

Fixtures, form & tips

Maritimo

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gil Vicente vs Maritimo according to our model?

The model gives Gil Vicente a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gil Vicente 56%, draw 26%, Maritimo 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.