Sporting CP vs Arouca: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga19 September 2026Estádio José Alvalade, Lissabon22°15 km/h

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Sporting CPPossession & high press

AroucaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Sporting CP (80%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 8.40 (+11 %)

1 · Sporting CP 80%X 13%6% Arouca · 2

80%

13%

Analysis: Sporting CP – Arouca

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Sporting CP's relentless home dominance is set to clash with Arouca's modest aspirations in this Primeira Liga fixture. An unbeaten streak of 11 matches underscores the hosts' impressive form, with a scoring record that stretches to 40 consecutive league games. The numbers are stacked in favor of Sporting, with a towering 80% win probability and an expected goals tally of 2.64 against Arouca's meager 0.71. This clash suggests a likely scenario where the home side commands the field, dictating the tempo with their possession and high press.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample size of two matches since 2023, shows Sporting winning both, reinforcing their supremacy in recent encounters. Arouca, on the other hand, adopt a balanced and physical approach but face an uphill battle against a side that wins 80% of their home fixtures historically. The visitors' xG per match of 0.94 pales in comparison to the home side's 2.1, and their xGA of 1.4 against Sporting's 0.51 highlights the defensive disparity.

A 2-0 victory for Sporting seems the most plausible outcome, with a 12% likelihood according to the model, closely followed by a 3-0 result at 11%. The over/under 2.5 goals market leans heavily towards over, given a substantial 65% probability. Goals should be expected, though Arouca's chances of finding the net remain slim, with only a 47% chance of both teams scoring.

While the odds are steeply against Arouca, there's an intriguing value proposition for risk-takers. Arouca's win at odds of 16.0 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet represents a 3% edge over the model's 6% probability. In a clash dominated by Sporting's credentials, this minor edge, though unlikely, offers a speculative angle for those keen on embracing the thrill of long-shot scenarios.

Sporting CP

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Luis SuarezFxG 0.88 · xT 0.10
Maxi AraujoLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Sergi Altimira ClavellCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.03

Arouca

Form WLWDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #6xP/match #10Points #5

Key players

Ivan BarberoFxG 0.47 · xT -0.01
Näis DjouahraLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.16
Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Sporting CP – Arouca

Predicted score matrix

Arouca →

Sporting CP →

0–03.7%

0–12.3%

0–20.9%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–09.1%

1–16.7%

1–22.3%

1–30.5%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.3%

2–18.7%

2–23.1%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–010.8%

3–17.6%

3–22.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–013.5%

4+–19.5%

4+–23.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.3-011%
3.1-09%
4.2-19%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,64–0,71

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@3.10EV+8%

Over 2,565%

@1.43

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sporting CP to win80%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sporting CP to win80%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Fotis Ioannidis to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Fotis Ioannidis to score38%
Javier Sánchez de Felipe to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw13% probability@8.40Betfair ExchangeEV+11%reference odds
Under 1.515% probability@7.20Betfair ExchangeEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.535% probability@3.10Betfair ExchangeEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sporting CP	X	2 · Arouca
Betfair Exchange	1.21	EV+ 11% 8.40	EV+ 3% 16.00
Betsafe	1.19	5.70	EV+ 3% 16.00
Betsson	1.19	5.70	EV+ 3% 16.00
Nordicbet	1.19	5.70	EV+ 3% 16.00
Pinnacle	1.17	EV+ 6% 8.06	14.42

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

1-1 %

83 %78 %

1.19 → 1.17

X+7 %

15 %10 %

7.54 → 8.06

2+16 %

10 %5 %

12.47 → 14.42

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 19/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sporting CP 2Draw 0Arouca 0

Goals: 8–1 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Sporting Lisboa are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
Sporting Lisboa have scored in 40 consecutive league matches.
Sporting Lisboa win 80% of their home matches all-time (20 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sporting CP

Arouca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sporting CP (15–6)

Arouca (8–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Arouca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sporting CP

Arouca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sporting CP	Arouca
Points	14	10
xPoints	13.4	7.1
xG per match	2.1	0.94
xGA per match	0.51	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.36

Playing style	Sporting CP	Arouca
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.27
Field tilt	0.67	0.48
xT per match	1	0.92
xTA per match	0.5	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	24	20
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	12	7
Entries into the box against	6	14
Pass completion %	0.84	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.75
Passes per match	525	411
Passes against per match	301	381
Switches of play per match	36.7	27.3
Long balls per match	36	30

Set pieces	Sporting CP	Arouca
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	5.2	3
Corners against per match	2.7	5.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.82

Other	Sporting CP	Arouca
Throw-in control	0.79	0.78

The goalkeepers	Rui Silva (Sporting CP)	Ignacio de Arruabarrena Fernández (Arouca)
Saves	9	27
Save %	64%	84%
xG prevented	67%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sporting CP

Fixtures, form & tips

Arouca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sporting CP vs Arouca according to our model?

The model gives Sporting CP a 80% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP 80%, draw 13%, Arouca 6%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.