Nacional vs Famalicão: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga19 September 2026Estádio da Madeira, Funchal21°8 km/h

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NacionalPossession control

0–4

FamalicãoPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Famalicão (54%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.95 (+21 %)

1 · Nacional 19%X 27%54% Famalicão · 2

19%

27%

54%

Analysis: Nacional – Famalicão

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

In the four encounters between Nacional and Famalicão since 2023, the visitors have a slight edge with two wins to one. However, with just four matches in this head-to-head sample, its influence is minimal compared to current form and expected goals. The most pressing issue for the hosts is their alarming four-game losing streak, which contrasts sharply with Famalicão's more balanced recent performances.

Nacional's playing style of possession control has been undermined by their defensive frailties. Expected goals against (xGA) per match stands at a worrying 2.0, indicating their vulnerability at the back. Famalicão, on the other hand, have been more efficient defensively with an xGA of 1.2, bolstering their chances of exploiting Nacional's weaknesses. The visitors' high-pressing game should further unsettle Nacional, potentially leading to more scoring opportunities.

The model probabilities favor Famalicão with a 54% chance of victory and suggest a lean towards a 0-1 or 0-2 outcome. With Nacional's expected goals (xG) at 0.95 and Famalicão's at 1.85, the visitors appear more likely to capitalize on scoring chances. Despite the hosts' higher xG per match at 1.1 compared to Famalicão's 0.84, their inability to convert possession into goals has been evident.

For bettors, the standout angle is the value in the over 3.5 goals market. Offered at odds of 3.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model rates this outcome at 31% probability, indicating a 21% edge. Given the playing styles and potential for defensive lapses from Nacional, this bet presents a compelling opportunity for those seeking a high-risk, high-reward wager.

Nacional

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #7xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Pablo Ruan Messias CardozoFxG 0.28 · xT 0.05
Leonardo Rodrigues dos SantosCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.26
Igor Matheus Liziero PereiraCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.17

Famalicão

Form LLDDD

League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #14xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraFxG 0.22 · xT 0.13
Marcos PenaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Georgios KoutsiasFxG 0.39 · xT -0.05

Final score

0 – 4

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Nacional 19% · Draw 27% · Famalicão 54%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FamalicaoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,32fair 6,28+32 %

Miss

Matchresultat - NacionalBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,96fair 23,39-36 %

Miss

Match prediction: Nacional – Famalicão

Predicted score matrix

Famalicão →

Nacional →

0–06.4%

0–110.9%

0–210.4%

0–36.4%

0–4+4.5%

1–05.5%

1–111.0%

1–29.9%

1–36.1%

1–4+4.3%

2–02.8%

2–15.1%

2–24.7%

2–32.9%

2–4+2.0%

3–00.9%

3–11.6%

3–21.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.0-111%
3.0-210%
4.1-210%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

0,95–1,85

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.70

Over 2,553%

@2.22EV+12%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Famalicão to win54%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Famalicão to win54%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Georgios Koutsias to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Georgios Koutsias to score25%
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.531% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
Over 3.531% probability@3.95BetssonEV+21%reference odds
Over 3.531% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nacional	X	2 · Famalicão
Betfair Exchange	3.95	3.50	EV+ 13% 2.08
Betsafe	3.70	3.20	EV+ 10% 2.02
Betsson	3.70	3.20	EV+ 10% 2.02
Nordicbet	3.70	3.20	EV+ 10% 2.02
Pinnacle	3.93	3.30	EV+ 13% 2.08

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

1+3 %

28 %23 %

3.81 → 3.93

X-2 %

31 %26 %

3.36 → 3.30

2+3 %

49 %44 %

2.01 → 2.08

Over 2,5+6 %

47 %42 %

2.10 → 2.22

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Nacional 1Draw 1Famalicão 2

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Nacional have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nacional

Famalicão

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nacional (7–11)

Famalicão (5–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nacional

Famalicão

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nacional

Famalicão

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nacional	Famalicão
Points	4	4
xPoints	5.3	5.9
xG per match	1.1	0.84
xGA per match	2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.25

Playing style	Nacional	Famalicão
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.43	0.53
xT per match	0.91	0.7
xTA per match	0.99	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	23	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.2
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.76
Passes per match	348	413
Passes against per match	355	327
Switches of play per match	35.2	21.2
Long balls per match	42	24

Set pieces	Nacional	Famalicão
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	3.4	5.8
Corners against per match	4.5	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.57

Other	Nacional	Famalicão
Throw-in control	0.75	0.73

The goalkeepers	Renato Bellucci Marin (Nacional)	Lazar Carević (Famalicão)
Saves	23	13
Save %	68%	65%
xG prevented	40%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nacional

Fixtures, form & tips

Famalicão

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nacional vs Famalicão according to our model?

The model gives Famalicão a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nacional 19%, draw 27%, Famalicão 54%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.